What does Justin Trudeau's departure mean for federal public servants?
Former head of the public service says to expect further downsizing
The upcoming change in national leadership following Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's announcement that he plans to step down is thickening the cloud of uncertainty shrouding the future for federal public servants.
Since the Liberals took office in 2015 — to cheers at some government offices — the core public service (excluding tens of thousands of military, RCMP and National Capital Commission positions, for example) has grown by about 85,000 employees, according to the Treasury Board.
Canada's population has grown at a slightly slower rate over the same period.
Just under half of the federal public service is employed in the Ottawa-Gatineau area.
Among the many changes that occurred during Trudeau's term, Canada's $1.4-billion budget surplus in 2015 had turned into a $61.9-billion deficit by last month's economic statement.
The former head of the public service told Radio-Canada Trudeau implemented new programs and institutions, creating a "very busy, very active government" that contributed to the growth.
"A lot of people in the public service now have only known growth, and that's probably coming to an end," said Michael Wernick, now a top researcher on public service at the University of Ottawa.
"The tone of the public and political debate is that people want to see a tapping of the brakes on spending and on the size of the public service. So my guess is whoever wins the election, the 2026 budget is going to involve a fair bit of downsizing and cutting and relocation," Wernick said.
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The 2024 budget included a plan to shrink the size of the entire public service by 5,000 jobs or about 1.3 per cent over four years.
It's not yet clear what a new Liberal leader's financial plan will be, but Conservatice Leader Pierre Poilievre has long led national polling and long advocated for smaller government and less government spending.
Mixed emotions from civil servants
"We don't know what to expect with whatever government comes in," said David Cavlovic, who's been a permanent federal civil servant for seven years and works at Statistics Canada.
Employees have been concerned about spending more days in the office, he said, but now the concern of job security is tacked on.
"I think the security of knowing where we're going to be a year from now, two years from now is pretty much on the top of mind of a lot of people — especially younger people," Cavlovic said.
Some aren't concerned yet.
"We've had the reassurances there won't be any cuts," said Zachary Nick, who works at Health Canada. "I think through attrition it's not going to play out the way people think it is."
'Any kind of cuts could be harmful'
Nathan Prier, president of the Canadian Association of Professional Employees union, said this wouldn't be the first time the sector sees major cuts, pointing to former prime minister Stephen Harper.
During Harper's nearly decade in office, the Conservatives became embroiled in battles with the bureaucracy over spending and service cuts, policy decisions and restrictions on public commentary about research by federal scientists.
The increased staffing under the Trudeau government was meant to play catch-up, Prier said, but also to accommodate Canada's growing population and its needs.
"The public sector is the backbone of the government. When any government makes really big promises, it's public sector employees who end up delivering that," Prier said.
"When the resources and the support that they need to do their jobs are stripped away, it's Canadians who are going to suffer the consequences, and then the public sector gets blamed for being ineffective," he added.
"I want to work in collaboration, consultation and co-development with the federal government to find out what is best for the federal public service because I think any kind of cuts could be harmful to the Canadian public," said Sean O'Reilly, president of the Professional Institute of Public Service Canada union.
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With files from Robyn Miller and Radio-Canada's Martin Comtois