Global markets could limit government's ability to attract more critical mineral development to N.S.

In 1997, John Wightman found lithium in southwest Nova Scotia and saw the potential for a mine. But nearly 30 years later, a commercial mine has yet to start operating.

Wightman, a longtime geologist and prospector based in Bridgetown, N.S., said the biggest barrier to getting the operation going is money.

"It's always money," he said with a laugh.

Wightman said the property near Brazil Lake in Yarmouth County appears to contain more than 10 million tonnes of lithium-containing ore, meaning it could yield a significant amount of the metal that's key for making batteries for electric vehicles. But right now, a mine likely wouldn't be profitable.

The price of lithium peaked in 2022, precipitating a run on mineral claims in Nova Scotia, but the price fell dramatically in 2023.

The Brazil Lake project has been on pause for the last 18 months, waiting for conditions to change. 

The case demonstrates how global demand is a key driver of where the mining industry invests its time and money. Despite Premier Tim Houston's new refrain that he will open the door for more resource extraction, there are limitations to how much the provincial government can do to influence industry decisions.

This is particularly true for critical minerals. There are moratoriums on uranium mining and natural gas fracking, and the premier has mused about lifting those bans, but no such bans exist for the 16 critical minerals that Nova Scotia says it wants to pursue.

Mineral industry is cyclical

Wightman has about 10 projects in the works around Nova Scotia, mostly critical minerals, and he said none of them are being impeded by provincial law, regulations or policies. He said their development is being dictated by economics.

"The mineral industry tends to be very cyclic," he said, adding that it's common for operators to open and shut mines based on profitability.

Nevertheless, Wightman welcomed Houston's "new attitude."

"It is a shining light in the darkness of the last 40 years," he said.

Wightman said acquiring permits can be cumbersome because multiple government departments are involved, and from his perspective, those departments are not well co-ordinated. He wants the province to streamline the permitting process.

Wightman said the "development curve" for mines — that is, the time between discovery of a deposit to the start of commercial mining operations — is typically between 15 and 20 years in Nova Scotia.

He said a shorter timeline, and therefore a quicker financial return, could attract investment. He thinks the average development curve could be brought down to 10 years.

Wightman said some experts are predicting a global shortage of lithium by 2028, so he expects investor interest in his Brazil Lake project will return.

Demand, geology, politics

Scott Eldridge said he looks for three things when considering new mining projects: global demand, attractive geology, and a favourable political environment.

Eldridge is the CEO of Vancouver-based Military Metals, which is pursuing an antimony mine just outside Halifax.

Houston's new message about facilitating more mining is not what drew the company's attention to Nova Scotia, but Eldridge said it is welcome.

"You need to protect the environment and protect public health, it has to be done responsibly, it has to be done sustainably. So as long as the companies are complying with the necessary mining act requirements, then it's positive for the sector," Eldridge said in an interview.

While global factors have recently been chilling for lithium mining in Nova Scotia, they seem to simultaneously be igniting the development of antimony, another critical mineral.

Eldridge said his company was motivated to search for antimony deposits because of a ban that China introduced last year on the export of antimony and some other critical minerals to the United States.

He said China is the biggest player in antimony production, and the export ban was a major upset for global supply of the metal, which is used in armour-piercing ammunition, flame-retardant clothing and solar panels, among other things.

Military Metals is now pursuing antimony mines in Slovakia, Nevada, and Nova Scotia.

The site in West Gore, N.S., was home to a historical mine that produced antimony in the early 1900s. Eldridge said it seems there remains a high-quality deposit there, but his company is still years away from mining. He said they're in the early stages of exploration, which will determine whether a commercial operation is viable.