Ship traffic steadily increasing in Canadian Arctic waters, researchers say

Ship traffic in the Canadian Arctic, just as in other circumpolar regions, continued to grow in 2024 — driven mainly by the transport of raw materials. 

That's according to the Arctic Policy and Security Observatory at Université du Québec à Montréal, which released its report called "L'année arctique," or "The Arctic Year" in English. It looks at the biggest trends in the Arctic since 2019, in collaboration with the Centre for International Policy Studies at the University of Ottawa. 

At a news conference Friday, Frédéric Lasserre, a professor in the geography department at Université Laval and Hervé Baudu, a nautical sciences professor at l'École nationale supérieure maritime in France, presented a review of shipping in the Canadian Arctic in 2024. 

According to their research, there were 466 trips taken by ships in Canadian Arctic waters this year to date, marking a clear increase in the last decade. 

"The numbers from 2011 and 2024 show the total number of trips have increased from 319 to 466 so far," Lasserre said in French. 

This trend is also seen in other Arctic regions. According to data from the Arctic Council, the number of ships that entered the region increased by 37 per cent from 2013 to 2023. 

"This shows a trend toward a general increase in shipping in the Arctic," Lasserre said. 

According to Lasserre, climatic change could also be contributing to that increase. Sea ice is melting more and more in the Northwest Passage, making navigation easier. 

More traffic in the eastern Arctic

In the Canadian Arctic, the number of trips by commercial ships, especially freighters transporting natural resources extracted through mining activity, has experienced the most rapid expansion. 

In 2024, according to data compiled up to the present, 158 trips in the Canadian Arctic were made by bulk carriers, or freighters. From 2013 to 2023, that number has gone up by 503 per cent. 

Mines, like Raglan in Nunavik and the Mary River mine in Nunavut, contributed to the increase in freighters in the eastern Arctic in recent years. 

The total tonnage of ships is also increasing, "largely attributable to big ships serving natural resource extraction sites," Lasserre said. 

He also noted that marine traffic to the west of the Arctic archipelago is virtually non-existent. 

"Yes, navigation is generally increasing in the Arctic," he said. "But there are zones were there are more ships than others, where there is practically no one that goes there." 

Not a 'highway'

The researchers also reported an increase in the number of vessels going through the Northwest Passage since 2011, except during the COVID-19 pandemic. 

In 2024, there were 11 trips through the Northwest Passage, compared to 14 in 2023 and 10 in 2022. 

There were only two trips through the Northwest Passage in 2014. 

Lasserre, however, points out that Arctic sea routes are far from being a "highway" they have been called for years. 

He added that, contrary to expectations, climate change is causing the ice to build up in the straits to the west of the Arctic archipelago, making navigation more dangerous. As it disintegrates, the pack ice infiltrates the channels and it reduces how long the channel is navigable in the summer. 

Baudu also predicts that tourism interests in the Northwest Passage are waning, because the sought-after icy landscapes are less present in the summer. 

"That doesn't necessarily correspond to the expectations of tourists who come looking for a bit of sensation," he said.