'Because it's urgent': Young care about one issue, but voting intentions unclear

Some students had a chance to cast a ballot this week, as early voting took place at more than 100 campuses across the country, including three in New Brunswick.

Young people showed up in record numbers in the last federal election, pushing the Liberals over the majority mark.

But this year, the number of people between 18 and 38 surpassed the baby-boomer population, making them the largest voting bloc, representing more than a third of the electorate.

Many of those young adults have one issue on their minds this election. And it's probably not hard to guess which one: climate change.

"Because it's urgent," said 20-year-old Mount Allison University student Julia Connolly, who will be voting in a federal election for the first time on Oct. 21. 

Connolly helped organize the climate rallies in Sackville last month. She thinks this election is happening at a crisis point.

"If we don't act now, things will deteriorate quickly. And we'll see the effects of that within our lifetime," she said.

She's voting for the Green Party because she feels the Greens, along with the New Democratic Party, have the best platform on the environment.

But not all young people feel the same.

"My personal convictions would be to vote Green," said 21-year-old University of Moncton student Michele Josée Arsenault. She was one of several students to show up for early voting on campus this week.

But voting for a party with little experience in Parliament — Green Leader Elizabeth May has been the only MP —  is "a bit tricky," Arsenault said. "They'd be all a bunch of deer in the headlights."

Instead, Arsenault is voting Liberal. 

"It's not the best, but it's not the worst."

There's no doubt climate change is the number one issue for her this election. 

"I go to bed at night, and I think, 'Oh my goodness, are we still going to be able to breathe in a year? Or are we going to be able to have children and give them a world that's worth living in?'"

Taking control of the agenda

According to political science professor Mario Levesque, young people are playing a crucial part this election.

"We see this millennial vote finally taking control of the agenda," said Levesque, who teaches at Mount Allison University.

Three left-of-centre parties — the Liberals, the NDP and the Greens — have been talking climate a lot during this campaign. 

• Federal leaders invoke Greta Thunberg to sell their own climate change plans 
• Worried about climate change? You've got a tough decision to make

"Climate change is the biggest issue on their minds, and they want some real action."

Though Levesque believes a majority of young people will vote Green, how that will translate into seats — especially in New Brunswick — is a different story.

Student vote in New Brunswick directed toward climate change

5 years ago

Duration 0:55

Students had the chance to vote early this year and in the last federal election, they showed up in record numbers. So how are they voting this year?

According to the latest numbers from the CBC's poll tracker, the Greens are polling at 15.6 per cent in Atlantic Canada, higher than in the rest of the country, and could pick up one seat here. 

National projections indicate they could win anywhere from one to seven seats across the country.

Hearts broken

Young people are the largest voting bloc this election, but it's unclear whether they'll show up to vote like they did in 2015.

Turnout in the last federal election was the highest Canada had seen in decades. The 18 to 24 vote in particular was up 23.6 per cent in New Brunswick. 

• Millennial voters could decide this election — here's what some say would sway their vote
• How voter turnout might affect who wins in October

"In the last election, it was the Liberals that really courted them, and they were really enthralled with Justin Trudeau and his sunny ways campaign, and all the selfies he was taking on the campaign," said Levesque.

"Now that Justin Trudeau has been in power for four years, he does have some baggage."

Levesque believes Trudeau broke young voters' hearts by saying no to democratic reform, and confused them by saying he's pro-environment while approving the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion.

Trudeau acknowledges this in a Liberal campaign ad pitched to young voters. He looks into the camera and says: "Of course, it's not perfect, and we need to do more."

Still, Levesque believes there's much lingering disappointment from the last election, and some young voters may stay home because of it.

How that might affect the results in New Brunswick, where the Liberals won all 10 seats in 2015, is difficult to predict.