2 polls paint different pictures of voter plans ahead of election

Two recent polls of New Brunswick voters paint very different pictures of which way they're leaning ahead of a provincial election scheduled for this fall.

Narrative Research's latest quarterly survey suggests the Liberals have opened a large lead over the governing Progressive Conservatives — the biggest they've had in six years.

In Narrative's sample, 44 per cent of those who were decided said they'd vote Liberal compared to 33 per cent for the PCs.

The Liberals haven't had that kind of advantage since August 2018, just before a provincial election that saw the party win the popular vote but capture fewer seats than the Tories, paving the way for Blaine Higgs to become premier.

But the Liberal showing in the Narrative poll is at odds with another recent survey that suggested a much tighter race.

In a poll by Nanos Research, the two parties were tied with 35.9 per cent support each among decided respondents.

The two polls use different questions and methodologies.

The next provincial election is scheduled for Oct. 21, with an official start to the campaign on Sept. 19.

The Narrative poll's margin of error on voter intention is six percentage points, meaning a poll of its size is accurate within that range 19 times out of 20. 

The Greens were in third place in the Narrative poll, with 17 per cent support among decided respondents, followed by the NDP at four, and the People's Alliance at one. 

It also found that Liberal Leader Susan Holt continues to hold the lead among respondents for their preference for premier, with Green Leader David Coon and Higgs in a statistical tie.

Narrative surveyed 400 New Brunswickers between July 31 and Aug. 17. Twenty-five per cent of respondents were undecided on the question of who they plan to vote for.

Sixty-seven per cent of respondents in that poll said they were dissatisfied with the overall performance of the Higgs government, compared to just 26 per cent who said they were satisfied.

The Nanos results were based on 350 decided voters surveyed between July 28 and 31. Its margin of error was 5.3 percentage points 19 times out of 20.