Saint John is staring down trade troubles — and the oil industry has the biggest risk
Trade war with U.S. to hit New Brunswick's key port particularly hard
As the calendar counts down to what could be a devastating trade war between Canada and the United States, a New Brunswick leader is warning that one of Saint John's biggest sectors could be hit especially hard.
Andrew Beckett, chief executive officer of Envision Saint John, said that while industries like agriculture or paper and pulp will feel the pain of U.S. tariffs, the oil industry will suffer a particularly hard blow.
"We've got Canada's largest oil refinery in a small city and over 80 per cent of its exports go to the U.S.," he said in an interview.
The Canadian Chamber of Commerce last month identified Saint John as the Canadian city at greatest risk of damage from tariffs that U.S. President Donald Trump has been threatening to levy for the last few months.
Canada's retaliatory tariffs will also drive up prices on imported products, which will be felt by Canadian consumers.
For Beckett, whose organization aims to develop business opportunities for export-minded Saint John, the threat of tariffs is a serious problem.
"It's an extremely frustrating time," Beckett said, "for everybody involved, not just ourselves."
Trump brought in tariffs of 25 per cent on most Canadian and Mexican goods on March 4, with 10 per cent on energy. Just two days later, he paused them until April 2.
Beckett said there is already a significant impact because tariff threats have helped caused unemployment to rise to 7.5 per cent. He said provincial estimates have put potential job losses at 11,000.
Local businesses will be affected significantly as bringing steel and other materials in from the United States costs more.
Beckett said that these costs are also being passed on to consumers because businesses raise prices in response. As a result, consumer confidence is being "rocked," he said, which will "have ripple effects throughout the economy generally."
These effects involve less investment from businesses due to uncertainty about the impacts of tariffs and market instability.
Beckett said that the city could mitigate these impacts by taking advantage of the port's position as a "global gate," and expand exports to Europe and South America.
He also said that the situation might be viewed as a potential for Saint John to move beyond the U.S. market.
Saint John Mayor Donna Reardon made international news when she said "we're breaking up with the U.S." as Trump's tariffs went into effect.
Reardon said the city not only has Canada's largest oil refinery, but has been reliant on lucrative seafood and lumber markets based largely in the U.S.
"We've been in this comfortable relationship with our American cousins, and now we're being attacked," Reardon said earlier this month.
Reardon has said Saint John will survive but needs to strengthen its relationship with other countries.
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