Possibly good signs on freshet front: Snowpack has less water than usual

A lower than normal amount of snow on the ground is spelling positive early news as New Brunswick prepares for the unpredictability that comes with the rise in spring river levels.

The snow water equivalent — a measure of water derived from melted snow — is about 20 per cent lower across the province than it usually is, said Don Fox, director of the air and water sciences branch with the Department of Environment.

"Well, it's certainly not a bad thing," Fox told reporters Tuesday.

"But I would just make the point that there's enough, there's enough [snow] now if, if all the stars line up and all the conditions change ... that we could see problems, for sure."

He spoke as the New Brunswick government launched its annual River Watch program, which tracks current and forecast water levels primarily along the St. John River.

While gauges located in several communities from Saint John to Connors, in northwestern New Brunswick, track water levels daily, weather models and snowpack are used to cautiously predict where those levels will be as far as five days in advance.

The Woodstock area of the St. John River is the only location that was marked as being in the flood watch stage Tuesday, but Fox said that's normal.

"That is not unusual for this time of year, and when that happens, doesn't necessarily mean there will be, like, significant flooding in that area," he said.

Ice jams difficult to predict

Flooding can occur when the ice in a river breaks up and then blocks the flow of water, causing it to spill over the river's banks.

Fox said that type of flooding is a lot more difficult to predict, compared to flooding caused by warm, rainy weather.

For that reason, areas along the St. John River, including Woodstock, Perth-Andover, Simonds and Hartland don't have forecast river levels, Fox said.

"A lot of the upper, mid-to-upper river is fully intact ice, but in the next few weeks, we'll be watching very closely and making those observations."

Fox said the province's program only updates river levels once daily, but Environment and Climate Change Canada offers real-time data on its website.

Weather another uncertain factor

While some might be eager for warmer spring weather, higher temperatures could be the recipe for flooding.

Fox said the ideal weather for avoiding flooding would have gradually warmer daytime temperatures, with corresponding cool temperatures at night so that the snowpack melts slowly.

"Those conditions, if they go for weeks and weeks are, you know, practically perfect, with very little rain," he said.

Environment Canada's seasonal forecast has a higher probability of above-normal temperatures across the country from March into May.

That includes Fredericton, where there's a 50 per cent chance of above-normal temperatures, and a 41 per cent chance of above-normal rainfall.

"The conditions we hope don't happen are that it stays cold for a long period of time in toward spring, and then when it turns warm, it turns really warm," Fox said.

"And that is what happened back in 2018, where we had a long cold winter, and when things melted, they melted fast."

In a news release Tuesday, the New Brunswick Emergency Measures Organization advised people to have a plan to evacuate and to be self-sufficient for up to three days in the event of flooding.

It also called on residents to move belongings to higher ground if their property is prone to flooding and to avoid the banks of waterways as they can be dangerous this time of year.