Southeast N.B.'s booming population leads Canada
Magnitude of population jump 'is unprecedented,' says economist Richard Saillant
The Moncton region has the second-fastest-growing metro population in the country, Statistics Canada reported this week.
The region, that includes Dieppe, Riverview and surrounding areas, had a population of 178,971 as of July 1, 2023 — a 6.1 per cent increase from 2022.
Its growth rate was essentially tied with the Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo, Ont., area and was just ahead of Calgary. The national statistics agency attributed the growth "in large part to strong international migration."
In New Brunswick, population growth over recent years has smashed records dating back to Confederation.
"The magnitude of the population boom is unprecedented," economist Richard Saillant told Information Morning Moncton about the latest figures.
"I mean, we're leading the country, who would have thought?" he said.
"It's a spectacular explosion, and it's spread across southeastern New Brunswick."
The Moncton region added 23,893 people, the equivalent of adding a new town of Riverview, over the last four years.
But in recent years, housing prices and rents have soared, food banks have reported steep growth in demand, and schools in the Moncton region have turned to using non-teaching spaces and portable buildings as classrooms to keep up with surging enrolment.
Meanwhile, new home construction has lagged behind other Maritime provinces.
That growth and sharp increases in property assessments set by the province have bolstered municipal and provincial budgets.
While Statistics Canada releases provincewide population estimates quarterly, the data released this week offers a detailed look at where the booming population has settled in the province.
Shediac grew to 8,724 people, a 7.6 per cent increase, in one year. Moncton grew by seven per cent, reaching 91,085 people, while Dieppe grew by 6.1 per cent to 32,177. Riverview grew by two per cent, to 21,712.
The estimates use 2021 community boundaries, before local governance reforms increased the size of many municipalities in the province.
The Fredericton region, which includes New Maryland, Hanwell and other rural areas, grew to 119,059 in 2023.
The Saint John region, including Rothesay, Quispamsis, Grand Bay-Westfield and Hampton, grew to 138,985.
Fredericton, with 69,406 people, inched closer to overtaking Saint John, with 75,015 people, to become the province's second-largest city.
The 5,609-person gap is down from almost 20,000 in 2003.
But growth was also recorded in regions across the province that in previous years had been in decline.
"We're seeing something we hadn't seen in at least a generation, which is growth across the board," Saillant said.
The Miramichi region grew to 29,411 people, up 5.7 per cent compared to 2019. The Bathurst region grew to 32,821, up 3.4 per cent over 2019.
The Edmundston region increased 3.3 per cent since 2019 to reach 23,113 people.
In the north, the Campbellton region grew by 66 people, or 0.5 per cent, to 12,179 people since 2019.
Saillant noted that the increases, driven by migration, immigration or non-permanent residents, mask the reality that deaths still outpace births in some areas.
"So underneath the numbers, the migration numbers are strong but population growth is less impressive because of natural decrease," he said.
Saillant says he doesn't expect the growth to continue at the same pace, given changes the federal government has announced to immigration and international students.
"Ottawa is waking up to the reality [of] unconstrained immigration to the country," Saillant said, saying the growth has been attributed to an affordability crisis.
"But to deal with that, Ottawa is effectively making a huge U-turn on migration."
That shift is expected to result in lower population growth in the Maritimes, which Saillant says will require careful planning to address housing and labour demands.
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