Quebec says it's prioritizing health and education. Is that reality or just branding?

The day after Quebec presented a budget clouded by an $11-billion projected deficit, Premier François Legault wanted to clear the air — with receipts.

"It's not true that it's the worst" budget deficit in the province's history, he proclaimed last week, bar chart in hand. "It's the sixth worst!"

Quebec's projected deficit corresponds to 1.5 per cent of the province's GDP, which is how Legault prefers to look at it.

He pointed to previous Liberal Party of Quebec and Parti Québécois governments faring worse. The latter, he said, ran a 1.7 per cent deficit relative to GDP in 1996-97.

But the latest Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) budget remains the highest projected deficit in real dollars for any Quebec government. Even when excluding Generations Fund contributions and the province's contingency reserve, the deficit stands at an imposing $8.8 billion.

The Generations Fund is a legal obligation unique to Quebec meant to speed up the repayment of the province's debt. But since its inception in 2006, some financial experts have questioned its utility.

The Balanced Budget Act places limits on how long Quebec can run deficits. Last year, the law was amended to stretch those limits; a five-year plan to eliminate the deficit now must be presented in 2025. But the government's own projections have it straining to reach its new debt targets, and it won't be able to count on the billions of dollars in increased health transfers that it was hoping to receive over the next decade.

Even as the government promises not to cut services, this deficit will have consequences on the viability of health and social services as well as the government's ability to adapt to climate change, contend with the ongoing housing crisis and improve public transit options — issues the CAQ has been accused of not taking seriously enough. 

With Quebec's greatest deficit of the 21st century on the horizon, whether worst or sixth worst, this budget warrants a closer look, particularly how the government appears to be falling short in areas it claims to be prioritizing. 

Overstating commitments

Months before the government presented its budget, Legault and Finance Minister Eric Girard insisted they would prioritize health and education in trying economic times.

But the government's appreciation of social services in the budget has mostly translated to keeping their networks above water.

About 420,000 public employees will receive a 17.4 per cent wage increase over the next five years — a long-awaited investment that came only after those workers went on strike.

Girard said that new spending would bring improvements to services. But the CAQ government's track record of big, expensive changes to the public sector — all while cutting taxes — isn't promising.

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In the 2018 electoral campaign, Legault — a former education minister — put his seat on the line for the maternelle 4 ans program, with the aim of opening 5,000 classrooms by 2024 for four-year-olds and relieve parents desperate for child-care services.

But Legault pushed back that deadline and even lowered the target: 2,600 classrooms by 2029-30.

So far, there have only been about 1,600 classrooms created, and educators and parents alike have urged the government to reallocate resources to existing subsidized daycares — another network that is bursting at the seams.

In 2021, the government planned to create a total of 37,000 new subsidized daycare spots by 2025. But this year's budget provides no clear plan for meeting that target.

Last fall, there were roughly 30,000 children still waiting for a spot in subsidized daycare, according to the Family Ministry.

As for health care, Health Minister Christian Dubé is counting on the new Santé Québec agency to streamline the patient experience and reduce emergency room wait times and surgical backlogs, all while using public funds more efficiently. But it remains to be seen if those savings will materialize, and if workers will embrace the new system.

The province has yet to share how health care spending will change under Santé Québec. But one thing is certain: the head of the agency is set to earn at least $567,000 per year — a salary far higher than any cabinet minister or the premier.

A Leger poll from March 19, commissioned by Quebecor, suggests that following a lacklustre budget announcement, Quebecers remain generally unsatisfied with the Legault government.

Until the results of the CAQ's spending audit are made public and its plan for a balanced budget is announced, it will be difficult for the government to project an image of sound financial management under the weight of a demoralizing deficit.