Manitoba industries bracing for 'very significant impact' of possible tariffs ahead of Trump inauguration

Rick Préjet has been a Manitoba hog producer for more than 30 years. 

President-elect Donald Trump's threat to impose a 25 per cent tariff on Canadian imports has left him, and other producers like him, with a lot of unknowns, he says. 

"It could have a very significant impact on what farmers and producers in Manitoba receive for their pigs that go to the U.S.," said Préjet, who farms near Notre-Dame-de-Lourdes, southwest of Winnipeg, and is also chair of Manitoba Pork.

Trump, who will be sworn in on Monday, has threatened to impose the tariffs on all Canadian goods on his first day in office.

Manitoba Pork said 40 per cent of what its industry produces in this province is exported to the U.S.

Préjet said his farm ships about five per cent of its product south of the border in the form of live animals. In Manitoba as a whole, about three million of the eight million pigs produced go to the U.S., he said.

It's still not known whether there will be a 25 per cent tariff across the board, but if there is a tariff on pork, Préjet thinks the market will dictate who pays it. 

"In other words, how badly does that Manitoba producer need to ship it, and how badly does the American producer want to buy it?" Préjet said. "And where is that going to settle out? So that's a huge unknown."

Trump made the threat of tariffs in November, saying they'll apply to all imports from Canada and Mexico if the two countries don't address what he says is a flow of drugs and migrants across the borders. 

Following the threat, Ottawa announced $1.3 billion last month to bolster border security.

CBC News confirmed last week that the federal government was planning its first round of counter-tariffs. 

'Looking at hiring freezes': manufacturers' association

Terry Shaw, the Prairies vice-president for the Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters Association, said Trump's threat is already having an impact. 

A national survey of members conducted by the association found there's a lot of concern, and some are already taking steps to address the possibility. 

"A lot of our members now are working on accelerating shipments — you know, working with their customers to get product into the U.S. ahead of the tariffs," Shaw said. 

"Some of our members are looking at hiring freezes. I know some have already seen some business slow down, and so there have been some layoffs reported to me already.… Nationally, from our survey, about 30 per cent of manufacturers are delaying investments." 

About half of the association members who responded to the national survey indicated if the tariffs are imposed, they will have to freeze hiring or start laying people off, Shaw said.

About half suggested they will have to ship some of their production to the U.S., he said.

"[There are] some pretty severe economic impacts that manufacturers are going to be forced to take, you know, should these tariffs come to be."

When it comes to manufacturing jobs, 1,400 companies employ 70,000 Manitobans, Shaw said.

"Manufacturing is a key driver of our provincial and our national economies," he said. 

Manitoba exported $15.5 billion worth of goods and services to the U.S. in 2023, the Manitoba Bureau of Statistics says. 

Préjet said Manitoba Pork represents about 300 producers with about 600 farms.

He said he's appreciated the "Team Canada approach" he's seen as this country works to respond to Trump. 

"We're doing the same kind of approach in the hog industry, and then having said that, in the livestock industry…. They are attacking all of Canada, so we're not on our own on this thing."