U.S. weather service predicts minor to moderate flooding along Red River south of the border
Gentle thaw would be ideal because frost is deeper than usual this winter
The U.S. National Weather Service expects minor to moderate flooding along the Red River south of the border this spring.
In the first detailed flood outlook of the season, the NWS office in Grand Forks, N.D., says there might be gentle flooding if the spring thaw is gradual, but a larger flood if temperatures warm quickly in the coming weeks.
After a significant drought year, rivers and streams were running low before the winter freeze-up and soil-moisture levels were around normal, the NWS said Monday in a release.
On the other hand, the snowpack and the water content of snow are near or above normal for this time of the winter, while frost is running deeper than normal, reducing the ability of the ground to absorb meltwater if a thaw is quick.
"The risk for significant snowmelt flooding is moderately high, running near to slightly above long-term historical averages across the Red River and Devils Lake Basins," the NWS said.
This is a big turnaround from 2021, when agricultural producers were concerned about another drought.
The U.S. forecasts factor into Manitoba's flood outlooks. What happens along the Red River basin in the U.S. does not always translate into the same conditions north of the border.