Can Manitoba's 'niche' northern port put potential U.S. trade tensions on ice? It depends who you ask

Manitoba's northern port has long been lauded as an untapped economic resource that could strengthen Canadian trade across the pond, but experts say revamping it to reach its full potential requires much more than dollars and promises.

On Tuesday, Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew said Churchill — a town of just under 900 people on Hudson Bay in the province's far north — could help ensure Arctic sovereignty and national security because it's accessible via train and has a deepsea port.

Investing in the port is not only good for diversifying Manitoba's trade relationships, but also a "really important card that we have to play in strengthening" ties with the U.S. amid likely trade tensions, he said.

Kinew's comments came just a day after U.S. President Donald Trump — who has repeatedly raised the idea of imposing 25 per cent tariffs on Canada — returned to the Oval Office.

But is Kinew's idea feasible? Answers are mixed.

The potential of the region has never been recognized simply due to the logistics of the port, which has just a three-and-a-half month operational window in the summer, says Feiyue Wang, a University of Manitoba professor who leads the Churchill Marine Observatory.

"Everything that the premier says makes sense. It's more about how do we do this, and when are we going to do that?" Wang said.

Further development of the port may present challenges — like potential effects on environmental and human health — but also opportunities, he said.

"It has dramatic regional and national implications, but also could provide a major new shipping road to the global supply chain."

The Hudson Bay Railway, which opened in 1929 and was privatized after the federal government sold the Canadian National Railway in 1995, is the only land link between Churchill and the rest of the province, running through remote, boggy terrain.

The rail link has endured lengthy service disruptions in the past, including an 18-month shutdown under its previous U.S. owners after severe flooding in 2017.

Last February, the federal and provincial governments announced each would chip in $30 million to improve the railway — now owned and operated by Arctic Gateway Group, a partnership of dozens of First Nation and Bayline communities —  and start to redevelop the port. Prior to that, the federal government had put in a total of more than $215 million toward railway improvements.

CBC News reached out to Mike Spence, Churchill's mayor and the chair of the Arctic Gateway Group's board of directors, for comment on this story, but did not hear back before publication.

Breaking the ice

Some politicians, including federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, have also touted the idea of transporting oil through Churchill, but that has been denounced by environmentalists.

Arctic Gateway Group, which also owns and operates Churchill's port, said zinc concentrate was shipped through the port last August, marking its first export shipment of a critical mineral in over two decades.

The port is currently Canada's only Arctic seaport serviced by rail, according to Arctic Gateway.

However, an October 2024 report commissioned by Prairies Economic Development Canada said it's too early to determine whether the railway and port's commercial viability have increased since the feds signed agreements with the current ownership group in 2018.

The report notes that the 2017 flooding caused "extremely significant" economic effects for the region, which would have only worsened if the rail service had not been restored.

It also says future economic development opportunities, like a shipping corridor, would have been lost without the train service, which the report says should be viewed as both an essential service to provide transportation and supplies in northern communities, as well as an "eventually profitable business model" in conjunction with the port.

Renewed interest in the Arctic means renewed interest in the port, but its commercial viability and its rail connection have always been questionable, says Jean-Paul Rodrigue, a professor at the Texas A&M University-Galveston's department of maritime business administration.

"If you would like to intervene — either for political or commercial purposes — in the Arctic, Churchill is a good place to start, in the summer," he said. "Unfortunately, in the winter, it's out of the question."

Rodrigue questions whether the port can be upgraded to establish a year-round shipping corridor anytime soon, calling it "a niche port" because the water is frozen for most of the year and icebreakers are likely to get stuck.

He also has doubts about whether Kinew's Arctic strategy will bear fruit.

"I think American interests are already invested, and expressed interest, in the Port of Churchill as a strategy to access the Arctic, and maybe indirectly to counteract a little bit of Russian activity, but it's pretty far away," he said.

"I don't think it's that effective of a strategy — to countervail Russia's [Arctic] activity from Churchill."

'A really strong' economic case

But climate change is shortening Hudson Bay's long freeze-up, as rising global temperatures mean every year, that freeze is a day shorter, said Barry Prentice, director of the University of Manitoba's Transport Institute at the Asper School of Business.

The port has never lived up to its expectations, he says, having been used primarily to ship grain in the past. But the Prairies produce much more than that now, and a cheaper route is needed to ship products across the Atlantic Ocean to African and European markets, said Prentice.

"There's an economic case for Churchill, a really strong one, but it doesn't happen without investment."

Shipping Canadian minerals, energy and agricultural products across the globe through the port would not only strengthen Manitoba's economy, but could also lessen Canada's dependence on trade with the U.S., he said.

"If the Prairies were a country themselves, we wouldn't be ignoring the Churchill route," he said.

"The only caution is that we want to make sure we do this right, and that the people who live there see something in it for them."