Federal election 2025: Where change may come in Manitoba

Sometime very soon, most likely in the middle of the spring, Canadians will be heading into another federal election.

The resignation of Justin Trudeau and the prorogation of parliament sets up the fall of the Liberal government as soon as late March, which in turn would trigger an election in early to mid-May.

With only 14 seats, Manitoba will not determine much on the national scale. But every party has something at stake in this province.

For Pierre Poilievre's Conservative Party, which is poised to win its first majority in Canada since election night in 2011, success in Manitoba this spring will mean adding two or three seats to the existing seven the party controls here.

For the Liberals, who will be led by someone new in the next election, this is a save-the-furniture contest where the party will be content to hold on to as many seats as possible. Success in Manitoba for the Liberals this year means holding on to one or two of its four seats.

For the New Democrats, success in this province will mean holding on to all three of its existing Manitoba seats and at least being competitive in Winnipeg North.

Here are the Manitoba seats most and least likely to change hands this year:

Most potential for change

Winnipeg South: More than any other Manitoba riding, Winnipeg South is a perfect bellwether. Starting in 1988, when this riding assumed its modern form, the party that won the most seats on election night also won this seat. 

Right now, Poilievre's Conservatives are riding very high in the polls and are expected to form the next government. That spells trouble for incumbent Liberal MP Terry Duguid, who was named to cabinet weeks before Trudeau announced his intention to resign as Liberal leader and prime minister.

While the Conservatives have yet to nominate a candidate in Winnipeg South, anyone who ends up with the blue lawn signs in the riding this spring must be considered a strong contender.

Saint Boniface-Saint Vital: This southeast Winnipeg seat is also something of a bellwether riding but is far less fickle than Winnipeg South when it comes to flipping back and forth between the Liberals and conservative parties.

On two occasions since 1988, a Liberal has won here even though the party did not form a government. The prospects of that happening this year are dimmer due to the impending retirement of MP Dan Vandal, who has represented the riding since 2015.

As in Winnipeg South, the eventual Conservative candidate will have a good chance of winning.

Some change potential

Elmwood-Transcona: On paper, Winnipeg's easternmost riding ought to be an NDP stronghold. The New Democrats have won this riding in all but one election since it was formed in 1988.

The current incumbent, however, is the NDP's Leila Dance, who has only occupied this seat since September, when she narrowly defeated Conservative Colin Reynolds. The two will face off again this year.

Boundary changes to the riding offer a slight advantage to the Conservatives, as Elmwood-Transcona will no longer include a slice of North Kildonan in Winnipeg and will expand east across the Red River Floodway to include the Dugald area.

Winnipeg South Centre: The same weakening of Liberal support expected elsewhere in south Winnipeg is also expected in Winnipeg South Centre. But this riding is more of historic stronghold for the Liberal Party, compared to Winnipeg South or Saint Boniface-Saint Vital.

Liberal candidates have won Winnipeg South in all but one election since the riding assumed its modern form in 1988. Notably, the lone Conservative victory took place in 2011, when Stephen Harper won his only majority in the House of Commons.

This year, Winnipeg South Centre incumbent Ben Carr will face Conservative challenger Royden Brousseau. 

Winnipeg North: On paper, a nationwide collapse in Liberal support would spell trouble for Liberal incumbent Kevin Lamoureux. The NDP, which has yet to nominate a candidate in Winnipeg North, held this seat for the better part of three terms before Lamoureux won it in a 2010 byelection necessitated by former MP Judy Wasylycya-Leis's decision to run for mayor.

Since then, an increase in support for the Conservatives among blue-collar workers means Conservative candidate Rachel Punzalan should be more competitive in Winnipeg North this year than her deep-blue predecessors.

Nonetheless, the Manitoba political maxim "never bet against a Lamoureux" exists for a reason. In the 2011 election, when the Liberal Party was reduced to a paltry 34 seats nationwide, Lamoureux was one of only four Liberal candidates to win a seat west of the Ontario border — and became the only Liberal left standing in Manitoba.

Name change only

Riding Mountain: Thanks to electoral boundary changes, the former riding of Dauphin-Swan River-Neepawa will become the only riding in Canada with the word "riding" in its name.

Riding Mountain will incorporate all of the former riding and expand southeast to include the Municipality of Norfolk Treherne, Long Plain First Nation, Dakota Plains First Nation and a few tiny parcels of the RM of Portage la Prairie.

Conservative MP Dan Mazier is not expected to face a significant challenge in this very conservative riding.

Winnipeg West: What used to go by the unwieldy name of Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia-Headingley will soon be known as Winnipeg West. Along with the name change, this riding will expand its boundaries, welcoming voters in the RM of Rosser and residents of Tuxedo in Winnipeg. 

Conservative Marty Morantz has represented this moderately conservative riding since 2019. Former Liberal MP Doug Eyolfson, who also lost to Morantz in 2021, will make another attempt to win the riding back for his party.

Very low prospect for change

Brandon-Souris: Conservative MP Larry Maguire will attempt to win his fifth election in this southwestern Manitoba riding, which conservative parties have won 25 times during the past 26 elections.

Churchill-Keewatinook Aski: NDP MP Niki Ashton will try to win her sixth election in Manitoba's northernmost riding, which the NDP has won 12 times during the past 15 elections.

Kildonan-St. Paul: Conservative MP Raquel Dancho is seeking her third victory in this Winnipeg-area riding, which has voted Conservative six times during the past seven elections.

Portage-Lisgar: Conservative MP Branden Leslie will attempt to win his second election in this south-central Manitoba riding, which has never elected anyone other than conservative candidates, be they Reform, Canadian Alliance or Conservative.

Provencher: Conservative MP Ted Falk will try to win his fifth election in this southeastern Manitoba riding, which has voted for conservative candidates 16 times during the past 18 elections.

Selkirk-Interlake-Eastman: Conservative MP James Bezan is seeking his ninth victory in this central Manitoba riding, which has never elected anyone other than conservative candidates since it was reconstituted in 1997.

Winnipeg Centre: NDP MP Leah Gazan will attempt to win her third election in this inner-city Winnipeg riding, which has voted NDP eight times during the nine elections since it was reformed in 1997.