London's population predicted to grow by more than 200,000 in 30 years

London's rapid growth won't let up over the next 30 years with the city's current population of just over 420,000 now likely to rise to almost 650,000 by 2051, according to a growth projection report coming to council Tuesday. 

The report, by economists Watson and Associates and commissioned by the city, predicts London will experience a 1.3 per cent growth rate over the next three decades, with the city likely to add a population the size of St. Thomas about every six years during that time. 

• Read the full report here.

The growth estimates in the report far exceed population projections the city conducted in 2018, which estimated London's population would be a little more than 504,000 by 2051.

Among the report's findings: 

• Aging population: Following a national trend, London's population will continue to age in the decades to come. By 2051, 12 per cent of the City's population will be older than 75, up from eight per cent in 2021.
   
• Low vacancy rates. As of October 2021, rental vacancy rates in London were 1.9 per cent, down from 3.4 per cent from the previous year. The average in Ontario was 3.4 per cent in October 2021. 
   
• More jobs. The Watson report predicts an annual employment growth rate of approximately 1.6 per cent between 2021 and 2051. Under this scenario, London's employment base is expected to increase from 197,300 jobs in 2021, to 317,500 jobs by 2051.
   
• More students. The Watson report estimates full-time enrolment at Fanshawe and Western combined will rise from 56,900 in 2021 to 82,600 by 2051, an increase of 45 per cent (25,700 students) over the forecast period (1.3 per cent annual growth rate).

'We don't want to be like Toronto'

Rachel Margolis, an associate professor of sociology at Western, said Watson and Associates'  growth projections are likely underestimating London's growth over the next 30 years. 

She said London will need big infrastructure investments to absorb the growth in the years to come. 

"London is a big city and we have a real opportunity in the next 15 years to put in infrastructure that allows the city to grow in a healthy way and improve people's day-to-day lifestyle," she said. "We don't want to be like Toronto, that didn't invest in infrastructure in the 1990s and now it's really difficult for families to live day-to-day, to commute, to get their kids to school." 

It's often said London is in a housing crisis, so what will happen when 200,000 more people live in the Forest City? 

Margolis said it's essential the city focus on creating multi-unit residential buildings for seniors and young families, another population segment that's expected to grow. 

"We need to be thinking about family housing in high-density areas," she said. "There's a real need for larger apartments in London that developers don't like to invest in because they make more money on one-bedroom apartments." 

Mayor: direct growth to downtown

Mayor Josh Morgan said the projections show London's future growth should be directed to areas of the city that can absorb it best, including the downtown core. 

"It's an area of the city where we need a significant portion of the new growth to land," said Morgan. "No city can grow outward forever." 

Margolis said the forecast "really opens our eyes to the dramatic growth that we will like see in London and the need to get the city ready for all these new people." 

The report will come before council's committee of the whole on Tuesday.