How will Trudeau's departure affect London's local races?

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's decision to step down as Liberal leader sets off an immediate shakeup in London's federal political landscape, where two sitting Liberal MPs will face voters in what could be an election as early as spring.

Facing mounting pressure to leave, Trudeau announced Monday he plans to step aside but remain in power while the party picks a new leader. The next federal election was to happen on or before Oct. 25. However Monday, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh said his party will no longer support the minority Liberal government. 

Trudeau bought his party some time by moving to prorogue parliament until March 25. However without Singh's support, the government could fall after MPs return to Ottawa. 

With the federal Liberals low in the polls, that leaves London's two sitting MPs in a tough spot. Peter Fragiskatos has represented London North Centre (now named London Centre) since 2015. Arielle Kayabaga won London West in 2021. Both have said they intend to run again. After supporting Trudeau while his popularity fell, Fragiskatos did an about face on the weekend saying Trudeau should step down. Fragiskatos said he intends to seek re-election but that he's not interested in a leadership bid. 

Kaybaga did not respond to CBC's request for comment on Monday. 

Party organizers adjust their plans

Meanwhile, party organizers are working to pivot in response to Monday's news.

Elizabeth Saettler is a retired surgeon and Liberal supporter who first worked for the party in 2019 as a campaign manager for candidate Jesse McCormick in Lambton-Kent-Middlesex, a riding the Conservatives have held since 2015.

Saettler feels Trudeau did a good job, but agrees the loss of caucus support made his resignation inevitable. 

"He did a very honourable thing in stepping back and resigning because he didn't feel he had the internal support of caucus," said Saettler. "He wants there to be a strong leader for the Liberal Party when the election is fought."

Saettler plans to work with the riding association in the new constituency of Middlesex-London, where the nomination process hasn't started in earnest but is about to be kicked into high gear. 

Saettler said she hopes the next Liberal leader is a strong communicator, able to articulate the party's message and cut through what is sure to be an onslaught of attacks from Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre. 

Conservatives' focus won't change, organizer says

Kirsten Krose is a Conservative organizer who plans to manage one of the local campaigns once the writ is dropped. 

And while Trudeau's decision wasn't a shock, Krose said it's frustrating the government will essentially be frozen as incoming U.S. president Donald Trump threatens tariffs that will hurt the Canadian economy.

"We now have a government that can't take action," said Krose. "It does put us at a disadvantage." 

Picking a new leader is often seen as a way for a struggling party to change the channel and emerge with a fresh focus and a new face. Krose, however, said she doesn't believe a change in Liberal leader will do much to alter either the Liberals' fortunes or the Conservatives' focus in the campaign to come.

She said Trudeau has focused too much on climate change policies instead of economic issues and fiscal responsibility. 

"Nothing that [the Liberals] do immediately is going to have an outcome on the election at this point," said Krose. "Even bringing in a new rock star of a leader won't change people's perception on the party as a whole." 

NDP supporter: This will be a different election

While two of London's core ridings are held by Liberals, the NDP's Lindsay Mathyssen holds the third: London-Fanshawe.

Shawna Lewkowitz ran for the NDP in the London West riding in 2019 and 2021. She thinks the Liberals' recent troubles and imminent leadership change could help her party.

"In the past when voters lose trust in the Liberals, the NDP does well," she said. 

Lewkowitz said regardless of what happens to the Liberals, she feels the NDP is proud to talk about its record of getting Trudeau's government to support new programs, including a national dental care plan. 

"I think the NDP did a great job of getting important legislation passed and priorities that are important to Canadians to move forward," she said. "As much as we like to have polls and predictions, things can change very quickly and this election things are very different from past ones."