After a 'pretty warm' December, Hamilton and area can expect wintery weather this month
‘We are getting to a period of near seasonal temperatures,’ Environment Canada meteorologist says
After Hamilton experienced a warmer than usual December, snow could be just around the corner, according to an Environment and Climate Change Canada meteorologist.
Steven Flisfeder said the average daytime high for the month of December was 5.14 C, which places it as the third highest since 1959 in terms of average daytime high.
The average overnight low was 0.06, which places it as the second highest overnight low temperature.
"So, pretty warm overall is the main story for December," Flisfeder told CBC Hamilton this week.
CBC's climate dashboard, which shows weather data in real time from the Meteorological Service of Canada, also shows that the last month in Hamilton was warmer than normal.
According to the dashboard, the average minimum temperature for the last 30 days, between Dec. 4 and Jan. 2, was 1.5 C — 7.7 C above average.
In terms of rain, Flisfeder said in December, there was a total of 68.6 millimetres at the John C. Munro Hamilton International Airport — the eighth highest recorded there.
"In terms of rainfall, it's fairly high. The records go back to 1959, so it's not the longest period of record of stations that we have, but it is fairly long — several decades. So, being eighth is quite a bit in terms of rainfall."
Flisfeder said "the past couple of years … were also pretty warm."
The average daytime high for December 2022 was 2.34 C and in 2021 the average daytime high in December was 4.4 C, he said.
In 2022, a total of 59 millimetres of rain was recorded that same month, while in 2021, 42 millimetres was recorded.
With the planet warming due to greenhouse gas emissions, scientists point to another factor pushing temperatures even higher than expected — the oceanic phenomenon El Niño, where warmer waters cause the Pacific jet stream to move south, often resulting in areas in the northern U.S. and Canada having dryer and warmer winters.
Altaf Arain, director, Centre for Climate Change at McMaster University, said the 2023 El Niño event was strong.
"In addition, 2023 was already an exceptional warm year due to persistent warming trends because of climate change," Arain wrote in an email to CBC Hamilton.
If you've been asking where's winter, Flisfeder says it's here.
"We are getting to a period of near seasonal temperatures, so over the past couple of days we've been lowering those daytime highs from where we were seeing five or six or seven [degrees Celcius] through late December. We're now just slightly above zero," Flisfeder said.
"This coming week we're going to be hovering around zero as well, which is more in line with where we should be the daytime max for this time of year. This week should be about -2 C, so we're within the range of normal for temperatures."
Snow and major storm system next week
Meanwhile, Flisfeder said "there are going to be a couple of chances for there to be snow in the region over the coming week."
He said a system that will be crossing south of Lake Ontario this weekend puts the Western Golden Horseshoe well into the area that could receive snow.
"Depending on how much of a lake enhancement we get off the lake, there could be some areas within the Hamilton region that do get a few centimetres on the ground Saturday through Sunday," he said.
Flisfeder said the next big system being watched by Environment and Climate Change Canada is coming mid next week — "the Tuesday, Wednesday time frame."
He said while there's still some variability in what that could look like, there will be snow associated with that system.
"However, the rain-snow line, the boundary between which areas will get rain and which areas will get snow is wavering north and south. So, we don't have too much detail at this time, but definitely something to keep a look at next week."
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With files from CBC News