Canada's acceptance of refugee claims has ballooned in last 6 years — more for some countries than others
CBC investigation reveals which countries benefit most, and why
This story is part of Welcome to Canada, a CBC News series about immigration told through the eyes of the people who have experienced it.
The number of refugee claimants Canada has accepted has more than doubled since 2018. A CBC investigation has found that people from some countries have an easier time claiming asylum than others.
The number of refugee claimants granted asylum in Canada was close to 37,000 in 2023, up from just over 14,000 in 2018.
The recognition rate, which is determined by the number of accepted refugee claims divided by the total number of claims that have been decided by the Immigration and Refugee Board on merit, also increased to 82 per cent in the first nine months of 2024, from 64 per cent in 2018.
Much of the media coverage around asylum seekers has featured those who come to Canada from countries such as India, Haiti and Mexico. Around half the claims from these countries were accepted between January 2018 and Sept. 30, 2024.
But the most asylum seekers allowed to stay in Canada came from two countries where more than 95 per cent of decisions were positive: Iran and Turkey. This was true regardless of the type of persecution the person was fleeing, a CBC analysis of data from the Immigration and Refugee Board (IRB) has revealed.
There are many factors that determine whether an asylum seeker is allowed to stay in Canada, the IRB said in a statement, including a person's credibility, their ability to prove their identity and claims of persecution, the severity of the threats facing them and the conditions in their home country.
But experts told CBC there are also two systems for deciding asylum claims: one that produces mostly positive decisions for people from countries Canada has deemed to be sources of legitimate refugees, and another for everyone else. Critics say that because there is less scrutiny of claims processed the first way, the system is vulnerable to abuse.
Processing claims faster
Most refugee claimants present their cases at a hearing, during which a member of the IRB decides whether they qualify for asylum.
But the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act allows for some cases to be decided without a hearing, a process informally known as a paper review. This process is for people from countries with historically high acceptance rates who can prove their identity, have no serious credibility issues and have cleared a security screening, according to the IRB.
Refugee claims cannot be rejected without a hearing, so paper reviews have only two possible outcomes: a positive decision, or a decision to send a case to a hearing.
It used to be rare for refugee cases to be approved without a hearing, says Vancouver refugee and immigration lawyer Mojdeh Shahriari, who is also a former IRB member. But a huge backlog of cases waiting to be heard — almost 250,000 as of Sept. 30, 2024 — has the government looking for ways to process claims faster and without the time and expense of a hearing, she said.
Deciding refugee cases this way can be risky, Shahriari says.
"I think it's common knowledge now that the refugee protection system in Canada has been and is increasingly being abused."
'Room for abuse'
Shahriari, who handles many refugee claims from Iran, says the majority are legitimate and that life under the Islamic Republic regime is "horrific."
Political dissenters, or people who have converted to a religion other than Islam, face harsh persecution. Because it is the state persecuting such people, these types of claims are, in a sense, more straightforward.
That's if the claims are truthful, Shahriari notes.
"The evidence that IRB usually finds sufficient is something from the church they are attending, pictures, or if they have been baptized, the certificate, things like that."
But because such evidence can be fabricated, she says it "opens up, unfortunately, some room for abuse."
CBC's analysis found the majority of claims from Iran involved religious persecution. Of those who claimed this as their reason for seeking Canada's protection, the majority were considered apostates, or those who had renounced Islam. The second-largest group was Christians.
Shahriari sees enough Iranian cases she suspects are not legitimate that she screens her clients before agreeing to represent them. These could be people who have come to Canada on visitor or student visas and are looking for a better life, she says.
To stop this, she says, there needs to be increased screenings overseas before people are given visitor or student visas. The IRB also needs to hold more hearings, she says.
The Immigration and Refugee Board said in a statement that cases will not be processed without a hearing unless the person has passed a security clearance and there are no concerns about the person's identity or credibility.
But Shahriari says a hearing is the only way to establish this.
"If there is no hearing, there is no scrutiny of the person's credibility. The door for abuse is always open."
A growing disparity
On the other hand, some asylum seekers face extreme scrutiny.
Toronto immigration lawyer Vakkas Bilsin represents many refugee clients from countries such as Nigeria, which saw 46 per cent of refugee claims accepted between 2018 and September 2024, according to CBC's analysis.
He says cases from countries with historically lower acceptance rates, like Nigeria, are always sent to hearings. Claimants must prove to an IRB member that police cannot protect them and that they cannot be safe in another part of their country.
One reason for this, according to Bilsin, is that it is often third parties such as family members or criminal gangs, rather than the government itself, threatening people in countries like Nigeria, Mexico or Haiti. For people from countries like Iran, where the government is the source of persecution, it's a given that the person cannot be safe anywhere, he explained.
But even when the evidence and documentation is similar — when the persecutor is a family member, for example — Bilsin says he needs more evidence in Nigerian cases to show the person couldn't be safe elsewhere in the country. In immigration parlance, this is known as an internal flight alternative, or IFA.
He says in those cases, they go the extra mile to provide submissions and documents showing no IFA cities are available to their clients.
"When we are dealing with refugee claims from Iran, for instance, we don't really worry about potential IFAs that much," he said. "This is, I would say, the main hurdle that we are facing."
The disparity will only grow, Shahriari says, because claims decided without hearings will continue to be largely successful.
"They don't get scrutinized as much. And so obviously, the rates will remain high. And then that becomes the basis of designating the same country again."
Methodology
CBC News used Immigration and Refugee Board of Canada figures for 2018-2024 published here.
CBC excluded from the analysis claims that were not decided by the IRB on merit, for example, those that were abandoned or withdrawn by applicants. Recognition rate is therefore calculated by the total number of claims accepted divided by the combined total of accepted plus rejected claims. The IRB also suppresses data values of 20 or fewer, so those figures are not included in CBC's analysis.
You can see our full analysis here.
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