'Loving it here': Newcomers in their 30s propel Calgary's very different growth spurt

It wasn't oil and gas that drew Stephany Laverty to Calgary. She and her partner wanted to be closer to her family, somewhere they could buy a house and that felt less sleepy than where they were — Victoria, B.C.

She arrived six years ago, when she was 31. She's now researching population trends and looks back at that decision with a smile.

"I'm writing about myself right now," said the senior researcher with the Canada West Foundation, a local public policy think tank.

Laverty and her husband were part of the leading edge of the wave, a surge in people moving to the province who are in their 30s and coming to Alberta because it's relatively affordable.

And that's a big deal, she says. 

This is not another oil boom. It's a different boom — an affordability-driven boom — which means a different motivation and demographic mix, and a different squeeze on the people and services already here.

Past oil booms included a high percentage of job seekers in their early 20s, drawn by the lure of high-paying jobs.

But young adults are easy to attract and to lose, says Laverty.

"They're looking for school, they want to explore, they want to understand the world around them."

What's interesting about this affordability boom is the cohort in their 30s. That cohort was the most likely to leave Alberta during the downturn. 

But their numbers rebounded during this boom to even higher than during the oil boom of 2014. Now they're the second largest of any cohort coming.

"I'm paying attention to that 30- to 35-year-old age cohort because they're the ones making more permanent settlement decisions — where they want to establish roots, buy a house, start a family," said Laverty.

"So it's, yes, you're experiencing growth, yes, you're having talent, attraction and retention, but can you keep them as those conditions shift? … They could stay this time."

But this cohort also comes with more demands on infrastructure — health care, houses and schools for their children.

"In the short term, it's a crunch. Long term, hopefully we can figure out those pressure points and alleviate them."

This affordability-driven boom took off in Calgary after the pandemic restrictions eased and the Bank of Canada increased interest rates. At one point, roughly 200 new people moved to Calgary every day.

Statistics Canada estimates that between July 1, 2022, and July 1, 2023, the Calgary area welcomed 96,000 people, and the City of Calgary expects those migration numbers held fairly steady for 2023-24 as well.

According to the city's spring economic outlook, it's the most significant population increase since the early 1980s.

And where are people moving from? For Alberta, it's three main demographics: people moving from other parts of Canada, such as Toronto and Vancouver, people immigrating from outside the country, and people here from overseas on temporary work permits.

In October, Ottawa announced plans to tighten limits on most forms of international immigration. That won't stop the flow of inter-provincial migrants, but Calgary's economic outlook forecast the growth rate will drop by more than half next year.

This fall, CBC News set out to look at the impacts of Calgary's population growth. 

It's a complex story. On the one hand, new residents get blamed for increased housing prices and the high unemployment rate. But the surge in new residents has also kept the construction industry busy, leading to a record number of housing completions, and is supporting the economy by keeping up demand for consumer goods.

The population boom has increased the number of drivers on the roads. It also supports attendance at markets and community events. It's putting pressure on schools and daycares, and it's spurring growth in a cottage industry of networking and social events to help new people connect.

And what of the new residents themselves? What's been their experience?

As part of this deep dive on growth, CBC News talked with many people who recently arrived in Calgary. Some are struggling to find work, especially recent immigrants and young adults. But many others are settling in well and finding friends.

At a workshop for people new to the city, most said they've been thrilled to find a place with energy and possibility, especially if they've been able to buy a house and find people to support their dreams here.

And when they contrast Calgary with other cities, their excitement becomes understandable. That's why Rowan Wells contacted CBC News when she heard about this growth project.

She moved from Halifax in May with her husband, Brad Wells, and 10-year-old son, Tristan. 

"It's normal … to become quite blind to all the good that's actually in a place if you live there for a long time. So we wanted to share some of the nice things that we experienced," said Rowan, who is 40.

"We're loving it here. Like, we think it's just the best choice we've ever made. We just are bowled over — everything from our amazing house and the kind of opportunities that are here for work, and our really great neighbours who were so welcoming from Day 1."

The family was able to move because Brad, 47, works remotely for the federal government, and Rowan's experience in architecture is in high demand. She got six job offers when she started asking around.

In Halifax, they owned their own home but had been searching for four years for something larger. They checked Realtor.ca constantly. 

"You would see the same four houses in a city of almost half a million for years. I mean, there was no turnover. It was unbelievable. There was nothing for sale at any price point. It wouldn't matter if you had millions or if you had nothing," said Rowan.

Here in Calgary, they had 15 houses to visit and settled on a new-style duplex in Altadore, right across from Tristan's new school. As a bonus, it's a short drive from the reservoir, where they discovered Tristan can keep sailing.

Halifax feels like it's struggled since the pandemic, said Brad. Homelessness has gone up but homeowners are pushing back against higher-density building projects. Rent, house prices and even restaurants are getting so expensive, and family doctors are hard to find.

"Halifax, in this moment, feels like it's kind of collapsing in on itself, where I feel like [Calgary] is exploding," said Rowan.

"Halifax will change," added Brad. "It has no choice. But I can't wait. I've got a 10-year-old.… I felt like if we didn't move to Calgary now, it was just never gonna happen."

"A lot of people tried to escape the pandemic by coming to Halifax and I just don't think the city could keep up with it. From where we're sitting, [Calgary] is exactly the opposite," said Brad. "You guys are building like crazy: new highways, new roadways, new houses, new apartment buildings."

"I'm not saying it's perfect. It could always be faster. But compared to other regions in Canada … we're excited about the progress, and we really wanted to be a part of that."

Growth Spurt, Calgary

Calgary is growing again and quickly. But this population boom is different. CBC Calgary is looking at the impacts all week. Watch for our coverage and what you've missed at cbc.ca/yycgrowth.