How much will turkey dinner cost this holiday season? We crunched the numbers

Canadians could see some relief as they fill their shopping carts this holiday season.

After years of rising food prices, the cost of many pantry staples has stabilized — and there could be particular relief in the most expensive item on many Canadians' holiday tables: the bird.

The price of a fresh turkey is trending down compared with last year, and it's currently on track to be about 12 per cent less expensive than it was five years ago, according to a CBC analysis of national data from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

"Our expectation is that [turkey] prices will be a bit lower," said Ellen Goddard, an agricultural economist and professor emerita at the University of Alberta in Edmonton. "That should make your meal a little bit more affordable."

Still, after years of food inflation, many popular holiday side dishes and desserts have undergone double-digit price increases, according to Statistics Canada data.

Baking a simple batch of sugar cookies is now $3.92, up 38 per cent from $2.84 in 2019.

Making mashed potatoes will now cost $5.75, up 31 per cent from $4.38 that year.

And serving a tray of homemade rolls will run you about $3.59, up 29 per cent from $2.79 five years ago.  

"It's a bit of a good news, bad news situation," said Mike von Massow, a food economist at the University of Guelph. "The good news is prices haven't gone up again. The bad news is they haven't come down a bunch ... we're still feeling the pressure."

CBC News calculated the price of classic recipes for a table of six to eight people, created by Calgary food writer Julie Van Rosendaal, using ingredients from the Statistics Canada database of monthly retail prices and data from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.

Prices will, of course, vary province to province, city to city and store to store. Consumer choices also play a role: Are they buying generic or brand name? Local products or imported?

But the analysis is intended to show, broadly speaking, how prices for popular recipes are shifting.

The numbers include full-year data for 2019-23, and January to October data for 2024. 

Pricey items

To recap: Why did food prices climb so quickly in recent years? 

According to food economist von Massow, some of the drivers have included:

• Higher input costs for farmers.
• The impact of the war in Ukraine.
• The weaker performance of the Canadian dollar.
• Extreme weather affecting different types of crops.

When stocking up this holiday season, one of the ingredients likely to induce sticker shock is olive oil. The price of that cooking staple has climbed steeply due to poor weather in the Mediterranean, though von Massow said yields seem to be improving.

Many imported products are also trending up these days thanks to the poor exchange rate, he said, such as fresh produce coming from the southern United States.

"[You're] paying more for it because it's getting trucked further, there's more competition for it and we don't have the abundance of a fall harvest."

Savings

While food prices have climbed steeply in the last five years, they have started to even out.

Food prices rose 2.7 per cent in October this year compared with the year before, according to consumer price index data. That compares with an increase of 10.1 per cent in October 2022 versus a year earlier.

"We're seeing more stability," said Gary Sands, senior vice-president of public policy and advocacy at the Canadian Federation of Independent Grocers.

"We're still seeing increases, they're still there, but we're not seeing what we were seeing before, where [it was] double digit and two to three times a year."

Of note to holiday bakers, wheat prices have improved as markets have adjusted to the war in Ukraine, von Massow said.

And while extreme weather can make certain crops more expensive, improved weather conditions for certain crops can also improve prices.

Take, for example, apples. Von Massow said prices climbed due to a late frost in apple-producing Ontario last year. This year, he said, conditions have been better.

"The really nice apples, there were fewer of them, so prices went up," he said. "We've seen a more significant drop this year because it was a pretty good year for apples.... [It's] basic Economics 101."

While cooking for a crowd is always going to be pricey, food writer Van Rosendaal said many traditional holiday recipes remain fairly attainable.

These dishes often rely on pantry staples, like flour and root vegetables, which can be purchased in bulk and stored for a long time.

"We're definitely seeing a general increase in our grocery bills, but it's good to see that a lot of those traditional dishes ... they're still relatively affordable," Van Rosendaal said.

Turkey

As far as price relief is concerned, perhaps most notable is that centrepiece dish: the turkey.

Preparing a fresh, six-kilogram turkey is on track to cost $32.52 this year, down from $42.12 in 2023 and $37.14 in 2019.

That's according to CBC's analysis of national Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada data, though final prices for this December's retail turkeys won't be known until after the Christmas season.

While the Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada data doesn't include November and December figures for fresh turkey, CBC looked at previous yearly trends for turkey prices in those two months and found they don't significantly affect the yearly average.

So what's up with turkey prices?

As the threat of avian flu has subsided, the supply of turkeys seems to have improved in Canada, the chair of the Turkey Farmers of Canada told Global News just before Thanksgiving.

Demand is also a possible factor, said Goddard, the agricultural economist from Alberta.

Appetite for turkey appears to be down in the U.S., which could be affecting prices in Canada. Goddard said even though turkey is a supply-managed commodity, there is some trade between the U.S. and Canada and some link between prices in the two countries.

Here at home, the turkey industry has been concerned for years about declining turkey sales due to changing consumer preferences. Goddard said smaller households might be buying smaller cuts of meat or choosing different proteins altogether.

Consumers squeezed by the higher cost of living these days might also be buying fewer turkeys as a way to save money.

"[Turkey] seems particularly expensive when people are really concerned about food prices," Goddard said.

The prices consumers see can vary based on a range of factors, including location, local retail competition and marketing strategies, according to the Turkey Farmers of Canada. The industry group said it's noticed prices trending similar to last year and in some cases trending down.

"While prices can vary between retailers, turkeys were featured as low as $1.44 per pound across Canada this Thanksgiving," spokesperson Maegan MacKimmie said in a statement in early December.

"Currently, turkeys have been featured as low as $0.98 per pound on some turkey options."

While the meal we analyzed includes a fresh turkey, shoppers might also opt for a frozen turkey, which tends to be cheaper.

The price of frozen turkey is also affected by the amount of frozen turkeys that the industry keeps in storage, Goddard said. Frozen turkey stocks fell amid the COVID-19 pandemic but have since been climbing.

Similar to fresh turkey, the price of frozen turkey is also trending lower this year compared with 2022 and 2023, though prices remain higher than in 2019, when there were more frozen birds in storage.

Costs vs. wages

Given the overall climb in food prices since 2019, the cost of this year's holiday meal will be either easier or more difficult to absorb depending on the degree to which shoppers' wages have gone up since then.

According to Statistics Canada, the median wage has climbed by 24 per per cent compared with 2019.

Still, economist von Massow said that doesn't mean everyone has gotten a raise.

"The relief Canadians are feeling is not being applied universally. If prices came down for everyone, that would be one thing, but wages go up for different people depending on the circumstances they're in," he said.

For Canadians hoping to trim their hosting budgets this season, food writer Van Rosendaal suggested hosting a potluck to spread costs among a group.

Another idea: Rather than serving a traditional holiday dinner, she said, a breakfast or brunch can be a more affordable option for hosts.

"There's no pressure to stock up the bar or buy a lot of wine," she said. "And it's great for families with young kids."

How we got these numbers

The monthly average retail price of ingredients comes from Statistics Canada. The data has been averaged per year. The 2024 price average is missing November and December, but these two months didn't significantly impact yearly averages in previous years.

The retail price for turkey comes from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. The data has been averaged per year. The 2024 price average is missing November and December, but these two months didn't significantly impact yearly averages in previous years.

The recipes were provided by Julie Van Rosendaal. When necessary, the quantities were converted using this table.

The median hourly wage comes from Statistics Canada. The data has been averaged per year. The 2024 wage averages are missing December.