Want to boost Albertans' support for leaving CPP? Ask the question differently

It's apparent that a fourth Liberal victory has triggered a surge in anti-Ottawa sentiment in Alberta, but have things changed so much that a populace long opposed to pulling the province out of the Canada Pension Plan now supports it?

One reading of fresh polling commissioned by the Premier Danielle Smith's government argues as much. 

A Postmedia writer got his hands on a provincially funded survey by pollster Janet Brown's Trend Research, and used the results to argue that most Albertans — 55 per cent — now back an APP instead of a CPP.

The article compared that to only 23 per cent support in a Leger poll earlier this year, which is similar to multiple survey findings in 2024 and not much better than Brown herself tracked in 2022.

One more Liberal prime minister later, and now the province is ready to walk away from CPP?

Not so fast. This takes some squinting.

As happens so often, the answer may not be as important as the question used to obtain it.

"Different questions will give you different results," Brown said in an interview with CBC News, after publicly releasing the entire government-commissioned poll on her own website, for transparency's sake.

For the last several years, different pollsters have yielded similar results by asking roughly the same question of poll respondents: "Do you believe the Alberta government should create a new provincial pension plan to replace the Canada Pension Plan for Albertans?"

The survey the Smith government paid for put it differently. It asked about "replacing the Canada Pension Plan with an Alberta Pension Plan that guaranteed all Alberta seniors the same or better benefits than the Canada Pension Plan." (italics ours)

The government's question added a perspective-shifting caveat to the simple yes-or-no question, offering a guarantee of no financial risk for pensioners — an assurance that could depend largely on how much of the total CPP pie Alberta would get as its starting pot, a figure that remains in dispute.

If supporting Alberta separatism came with guaranteeing zero economic hardship, perhaps more residents would say they support it, too.

Brown noted another unique feature of her survey, which other non-government polls haven't included: an option to say they'd vote for, against, or "would need more information."

To that unusually guarantee-caveated question, 22 per cent said they needed more information; 35 said they'd vote against, and 42 per cent were for the no-downside CPP exit. ( A person would have to strip out the information-hungry from the survey to report that a majority of Albertans back an APP.)

"That's really what it was about, just finding out: who's entrenched?" Brown said. "Who's made up their mind? And who is seeking more information?"

There were several questions the Smith government commissioned along those three-option lines. To the question about replacing the RCMP with a provincial police — with a caveat that municipal police forces would stay intact — the survey found 30 per cent are for, 42 per cent against, and 26 per cent wanted more information.

On having the Alberta government collect provincial taxes instead of the Canada Revenue Agency, 40 per cent were for the idea, 32 per cent against, and 27 per cent wanted more information (though they could claim majority support among the certain).

"Taking over provincial immigration by only providing provincial benefits to non-citizen immigrants who satisfy Alberta's immigration requirements?" (This idea has not otherwise been publicly floated by the UCP government.) It's 35 per cent yea, 25 per cent nay, and 39 per cent who need to understand this one better.

As the government gathers public opinion research on these matters — and seemingly leaks out what it wants reported to select media — it might be worth remembering that Smith has said she'll consider putting some issues to provincial referendum in 2026, based on what her upcoming "Alberta Next" consultation tour concludes.

These questions could well be the sort of major changes in provincial-federal roles that a premier might want to get the public's approval on before proceeding. After all, Smith has always said she'd only take Alberta out of the CPP if it appeared there was a popular mandate for it — and as recently as May 1 said she sensed no "appetite" for the idea.

No appetite, that is, unless the question assured Albertans they'd be no worse off (and quite possibly better off) under an Alberta plan.

As most research experts will assert, the sequencing or clustering of questions can influence how people answer them.

Any question(s) that Smith puts to a referendum in 2026 could be posed alongside the ballot measure she said she isn't asking for, but many petitioners are — Alberta independence.

It's entirely possible that separation would just become the biggest proposed act of retrenchment from the federal government voters are asked to consider, alongside single-aspect withdrawals from federal influence, on pensions or matters like policing, immigration or tax collection.

Would having less drastic measures than divorcing from Canada have more appeal than separation, or deter some soft-separatists from that step?

It might, of course, all depend on how you pose and frame the questions.