Can the Raptors really steal this series?
Since falling behind 3-0 to Philly, Toronto has turned things around
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The Raptors are halfway to an historic comeback
Less than a week ago, the Toronto Raptors were on the verge of extinction. A pair of blowout losses in Philadelphia followed by a home overtime defeat plunged Canada's only NBA team into a 3-0 abyss in its first-round playoff matchup against the favoured 76ers. No NBA team has ever come back from that deficit to win a series. And with NBA rookie of the year Scottie Barnes out with a sprained ankle and all-star Fred VanVleet hobbled by his own injury, no one gave the Raptors a chance to become the first.
But the tables have turned. The Raptors got Barnes back for Game 4 and despite VanVleet exiting early when his hip conked out, staved off elimination with a 110-102 win. Then they marched into Philadelphia last night as a 3-to-1 underdog and smothered the Sixers, 103-88.
As the series shifts back to Toronto for Game 6 on Thursday night, you can sense everyone on both sides suddenly wondering: wait, could the Raptors actually pull off the biggest comeback in NBA playoff history?
The odds are still not in Toronto's favour — Philly is a slight favourite to win Game 6, and the updated series betting prices imply the Sixers have close to an 85 per cent chance of advancing. But here are some arguments an optimistic Raptors fan could make:
Philly's two best players may have hit the wall.
The Sixers are not a very deep team. When they packaged disgruntled Ben Simmons with two players and two draft picks to acquire James Harden from Brooklyn in February, they made a bet that combining the former NBA MVP with current MVP finalist Joel Embiid would be enough to overcome a thin supporting cast. The move seemed to be paying off over the first three games against the Raptors, but now looks like it has the potential to go bust.
A big reason for this is the torn ligament in Embiid's shooting thumb. The NBA scoring champion suffered the injury in Game 3 and has been noticeably bothered by it ever since. The stats match the eye test: through three games, Embiid was averaging close to 28 points and 13 rebounds. Since then? 20.5 and 9.5. The injury will reportedly require surgery to get better, but the big man is determined to grit through it until after the playoffs.
Meanwhile, Harden has clearly lost a step. When the densely bearded guard won three straight scoring titles with Houston a few years ago, no one had an answer for his lethal mix of step-back three-pointers and powerful drives to the basket, spiked with an uncanny ability to draw fouls. But this 32-year-old version of Harden just can't get to the bucket like he used to. Several times last night, he started to drive, only to give up and pass the ball back out to the perimeter. Embiid noticed. "I've been saying all season since he got here, he needs to be aggressive and he needs to be himself," the big man said after Harden finished with only 15 points. "That's probably on coach to talk to him and tell him to take more shots."
The biggest mismatch in the series might be on the sidelines.
The last part of that Embiid quote is telling. Sixers head coach Doc Rivers has landed a lot of plum jobs around the league because of his perceived ability to manage personalities — an important skill in today's player-driven NBA. But he's never been a great x's and o's guy, and that's probably hurt his teams in the playoffs. Rivers is the only coach in NBA history to blow three 3-1 series leads (one with Orlando, two with the Clippers) and he's now lost seven of his last eight opportunities to close out a series. Last year, Rivers' first in Philly, his top-seeded Sixers were upset in the second round of the Eastern Conference playoffs by Atlanta.
Rivers' opposite number in this series, Nick Nurse, is considered one of the best and most creative coaches in the NBA. So, while everyone talks about how the Raptors don't have a centre to stop Embiid (really, who does?), Toronto might be enjoying an equally (though less visible) mismatch at the quarter-zip position.
VanVleet's absence could be a blessing in disguise.
Let's be clear: the Raptors are not "better off" without their only all-star. When VanVleet is healthy, he's an efficient scorer with great shooting range and an elite defender. But he isn't healthy. He's been bothered by knee and hip issues for the past few months, and VanVleet's "body finally just tapped out" in Game 4 when he left the game with a hip flexor strain that put him in street clothes last night (and it sounds like probably for Game 6 too).
Give him credit for trying to play through pain, but the hobbled version of VanVleet caused problems for the Raptors, offering the Sixers a weak spot to attack. As Sports Illustrated's Aaron Rose noted on Twitter, Toronto is 20 points per 100 possessions better defensively in this series when VanVleet isn't on the court. Last night, with VanVleet sidelined, the Raptors forced 10 turnovers in the first half alone and held Philly to a series-low 88 points. In the four games with VanVleet, Toronto gave up an average of 112.
The Sixers' home-court advantage might not be all it's cracked up to be.
Philly sports fans are notoriously intimidating. These are the people who once booed Santa. We also know that home-court advantage is huge in basketball, where the close proximity of the fans to the court can help sway a few calls the home team's way — especially in a place as passionate as this one. So, if the Raptors can survive Game 6 at home, they'll face a daunting task for Game 7 on Saturday back in the (yeah, right) City of Brotherly Love.
But the Philly crowd can cut both ways. We saw that last night, when Sixers fans started jeering their team early and then booed them off the court. Imagine how tense that building will be if this series goes to a Game 7, with Philly on the verge of making NBA history for all the wrong reasons.
Quickly...
Steve Nash is in for an interesting off-season. The Canadian Point God took considerable flak two years ago when the Brooklyn Nets handed him the seemingly prime gig of coaching superstars Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving, even though he had no coaching experience. The Nets figured that the well-liked and respected former MVP was just the guy to manage two of the game's most talented, but also sensitive, personalities. Turns out, Nash's job was even tougher than it looked — especially this season. The notoriously unreliable Irving's refusal to get vaccinated against COVID-19 kept him out for much of the campaign, and the Nets traded an unhappy-but-useful James Harden for an injured (?) Ben Simmons, who never played a game for Brooklyn. The Nets never gelled, barely squeaked into the playoffs, and then got swept last night by Boston. Now, Nash's job security is in doubt. Durant gave him a vote of confidence last night, saying "Steve has been dealt a crazy hand the last two years." But Nash's future could hinge on Irving, who can opt out of his contract. As for getting Simmons back on the court, well, maybe Nash is just the guy to get through to him.
The women's Premier Hockey Federation has a new commissioner. Reagan Carey, the former head of USA Hockey's women's programs, has been hired to replace Tyler Tumminia, who stepped down in March after two seasons running what was formerly known as the National Women's Hockey League. Carey arrives as the six-team PHF, which includes a team in Toronto, prepares to add expansion franchises in Montreal and a TBD American location. The league has also committed to increasing each team's salary cap from $300,000 to $750,000 US. Carey's biggest challenge could be figuring out how to deal with the Professional Women's Hockey Players' Association, which is aiming to launch its own league within the next year with support from NHL teams. All post-collegiate members of the Canadian and U.S. women's national teams are members of the PWHPA, whose players have refused to join the PHF. The NHL brokered a meeting between the two sides recently in hopes of getting them to co-operate on a new league, but the PWHPA's board quickly decided to end the talks. Read more about Carey and the state of the PHF here.
Canada bounced back at the mixed doubles curling world championship. Jocelyn Peterman and Brett Gallant rebounded from yesterday's loss to Scotland by routing Hungary and the Czech Republic today to improve to 5-1. That puts the Canadians alone in second place in Group B, behind the 6-0 Scots. The top three teams in each of the two groups advance to the playoffs, with the first-place teams getting a bye to the semifinals. Canada has one game coming up Wednesday, against England (2-4). Read more about today's wins and watch highlights here.
You're up to speed. Talk to you tomorrow.
