The Leafs and Oilers are one step closer to an all-Canadian Cup final
But the betting favourites can't overlook their second-round opponents
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After a chaotic first round of the NHL playoffs that saw Stanley Cup favourite Boston and defending champ Colorado both eliminated, the Toronto Maple Leafs and Edmonton Oilers are suddenly the betting-market favourites to win their conferences.
But before we start planning for the first all-Canadian Stanley Cup final since 1989 — and the first Canadian Cup victory since '93 — the Leafs and Oilers will have to get past the second round. Here's a look at their matchups:
Toronto vs. Florida
The curse is dead: Toronto won a playoff series for the first time in 19 years. Long live the curse: today marks exactly 56 years since the Leafs' last Stanley Cup victory.
The franchise's historical scars aside, this Leafs team has what it takes to end the most infamous ongoing championship drought in sports. Toronto's top-end talent is outstanding and peaking at the right time, with reigning NHL MVP Auston Matthews, 99-point man Mitch Marner, top defenceman Morgan Rielly, slick forward William Nylander and Tavares all averaging more than a point per game in the first round. So did veteran centre Ryan O'Reilly, the former Conn Smythe Trophy winner who has bolstered the Leafs' depth since being acquired in February.
Toronto also caught a big break when Boston got upset by Florida. The Bruins won more games this season than any team in NHL history, and they eliminated the Leafs from the playoffs three times in the past 10 years. There's no such baggage with the Panthers, who Toronto has never faced in the playoffs. The Leafs won three of their four meetings in the regular season, though two of the wins came in 3-on-3 overtime (as did Florida's lone victory).
As the higher-seeded team, Toronto has home-ice advantage for a potential Game 7. It should also enjoy considerable support in Florida, where Leaf fans always gobble up tickets from the mostly indifferent locals. The Panthers tried to mitigate this problem by restricting sales to Canadian fans. But the team can't control the secondary market, so expect to see plenty of blue and white in the oft-empty seats in Sunrise.
WATCH | Leafs, Oilers advance to 2nd round as lone Canadian teams chasing Cup:
Add it all up and Toronto is the clear favourite to beat Florida, with the series betting odds implying the Leafs have about a 63 per cent chance of advancing. But the Panthers are certainly capable of pulling off an upset, as Boston can attest. Florida scored more goals than any other team over the last two seasons, and they just averaged five per game over the final three games against the stingiest team in the league. Remember too that the Panthers won the Presidents' Trophy just a year ago. Their ceiling is higher than you might think for a wild-card team that scraped into the playoffs with the worst record among the 16 qualifiers.
Florida's best player is Matthew Tkachuk, the gritty winger who racked up 109 points in his first season after being traded by Calgary and added 11 in the seven-game upset of Boston. Carter Verhaeghe scored a team-high 42 goals this season, plus the Game 7 OT winner to bounce the Bruins. Veteran goalie Sergei Bobrovsky is a question mark at this stage of his career, but the two-time Vezina winner came off the bench to help steal the Bruins series and also backstopped Columbus' shocking sweep of Tampa Bay in 2019.
Game 1 is tonight at 7 p.m. ET in Toronto. You can watch on the CBC TV network, CBCSports.ca, the CBC Sports app and CBC Gem. Read more about the Leafs-Panthers series here.
Edmonton vs. Vegas
The Oilers' fan base isn't nearly as tortured as the Leafs' (whose is?) but it has been 33 years since Edmonton's last Stanley Cup victory and 17 since its last trip to the final. The Connor McDavid era has not borne as much playoff success as you might expect, as the Oilers have won just four playoff series since he joined them in 2015.
Two of those came last year, when Edmonton defeated the Kings and Flames before getting swept by eventual-champion Colorado in the Western Conference final. That deep run raised expectations for this year, and the Oilers cleared their first hurdle by dispatching the Kings in six last Saturday night.
After winning his first goal-scoring title by potting 64 in the regular season, McDavid was "held" to three in the L.A. series but still tallied 10 points. That was a bit under the breakneck pace from his 153-point regular season, the highest total the NHL has seen in 27 years. Leon Draisaitl is tied for the playoff lead with seven goals and tied for second with 11 points after finishing second to McDavid with 128 points in the regular season.
Of course, those two guys have never been Edmonton's problem. It's the supporting cast that must step up for the Oilers to have a shot at the Cup. Apart from Evan Bouchard, who had 10 points, no Oiler had more than four in the series vs. Los Angeles. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is still looking for his first goal of the playoffs after scoring a career-high 37 in the regular season.
That didn't matter much against L.A., as the Oilers' lethal power play converted an absurd 56 per cent of its chances. But Edmonton will need all hands on deck against Vegas, which finished two points ahead of the Oilers to win the Pacific Division and the top seed in the West, despite the Oilers' winning three of their four meetings.
The Golden Knights bounced back from a Game 1 hiccup to steamroll Winnipeg in five as Mark Stone piled up eight points in his return from January back surgery. Vegas' other top players include star forward Jack Eichel, who averaged a point a game in the regular season, and defensive anchors Alex Pietrangelo and Shea Theodore. Forwards Jonathan Marchessault, Reilly Smith and William Karlsson remain from the expansion Knights' incredible run to the 2018 Cup final.
This should be a great series. The betting odds imply Edmonton has about a 59 per cent chance of taking down Vegas, but it feels closer than that. The Oilers have the best player in the world and one of the top offensive weapons, but Vegas has a pretty dynamic duo of its own in Stone and Eichel. The Golden Knights are more sturdily built top to bottom, but McDavid and Draisaitl give Edmonton a ceiling that no one can match.
Game 1 is Wednesday at 9:30 p.m. ET in Vegas. Read more about the Oilers-Golden Knights series here.
The other matchups:
Dallas hosts Seattle for Game 1 of their Western Conference series tonight at 9:30 p.m. ET. The Stars took out Minnesota in six as Roope Hintz racked up a playoff-leading 12 points. The Kraken stunned defending champion Colorado in seven to win the second-year franchise's playoff debut.
Carolina hosts Game 1 of its Eastern series vs. New Jersey on Wednesday night. The Hurricanes, the only franchise among the eight left in the playoffs to win the Cup in the past 17 years, eliminated the Islanders in six. The Devils beat the rival Rangers 4-0 in Game 7 last night, with rookie goalie Akira Schmid getting the shutout.
