Leafs' draft picks suggest strategy in place
GM Lou Lamoriello's second draft reveals pattern
Lou Lamoriello has always had the same draft philosophy: you take the best player available.
"One year, the best players will be defencemen, and the next year, the best players will be forwards," said Lamoriello at the NHL entry draft in Chicago. "So if you decide that you were going to [take a proportional number of positional players], you're not really doing the right thing. You're going to take the best players."
At face value, the statement makes sense.
But the last two Leafs drafts bear certain similarities that suggest a more nuanced approach than simply taking the player with the most skill. There are several similarities between the two drafts since Lamoriello has been the general manager that suggest a strategy is in place.
Draft elite skill early
This past draft, the Leafs took defenceman Timothy Liljegren, who earned high praise from Lamoriello for his excellent skating (both its fluidity and top-end speed) as well as his puck-handling. Although Liljegren is unlikely to be deemed NHL-ready this season, he possesses offensive instincts that should help him flourish later on. If everything goes right, he could be a top-pairing defenceman, but Liljegren will have to add some muscle in the meantime.
This stands in sharp contrast to one of the Leafs' other top picks in recent memory: Luke Schenn. Even when playing for the WHL's Kelowna Rockets, Schenn had the frame of an NHL player, and was closer to being ready for the big league. The problem? His developmental ceiling was lower, and ultimately, the best thing he did in Toronto was net James van Riemsdyk in a trade.
Where previously many GMs preferred the certainty of a player who was likely to turn into at least a bottom-pairing defender or a bottom-six forward, many, including Lamoriello, now appear to be aiming for a home run with early picks. This makes sense in a salary-cap world, since the best players don't change teams very often — once you have a star, you keep him.
Depth players with size
To be clear, size is a good trait in a prospect. All things being equal, bigger players are better. Unfortunately, things aren't usually equal, and the largest players often have issues with one of the most important facets of the "new" NHL era: skating.
In selecting the likes of Yegor Korshkov (6-foot-4), Keaton Middleton (6-foot-5) and Nicolas Mattinen (6-foot-5) in 2016 and then Eemeli Rasanen (6-foot-6) and Fedor Gordeev (6-foot-6) in 2017, the Leafs demonstrated a lot of faith in skating coach Barb Underhill. Certainly, Underhill comes very highly regarded, but there is only so much that can be done.
For players such as Middleton, Mattinen and Gordeev in particular, skating doesn't appear to be the only trait missing. They don't appear to have the offensive instincts to compensate for their mobility shortcomings. If they can't do that at the junior-league level, then how are they going to do it against NHL competition? Before you answer "They'll get better!" remember that all the other prospects will, too.
Don't be afraid to select over-agers
When the Leafs selected four overaged players in the 2016 draft, it raised a lot of eyebrows because it's uncommon (though not unheard of) to even take one. Then, they went back the board and drafted another overage player in 2017 with Vladislav Kara in the fourth round.
Kara, who played mainly in the Russian junior league (MHL) last season, put up middling scoring numbers (33 points in 72 games) and went unranked in the draft. So far, he is relatively unknown in North America — quite the opposite of last year's star higher-profile over-ager Adam Brooks, who amassed 130 points in 66 games playing for the Regina Pats of the WHL.
How many diamonds in the rough the Leafs have found remains to be seen.