What's going to happen in the 2009 CFL playoffs?
Everyone has an opinion, so send along those predictions
Heartened by our brilliant 2-3 record predicting last season's CFL playoff games, here are our picks for this weekend's East and West semifinals. Feel free to attach your complaints below.
Prediction: The Hamilton Tiger-Cats will defeat the B.C. Lions in the cross-over semifinal (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET).
As you might expect for clubs that were two points apart, in most categories things are pretty much even. So, we go looking for some intangible that might separate the Cats and Leos, and three of them peer nicely over the butts of the Hamilton defensive line.
To your right (if you are the quarterback of the Lions, and more on that just below) is Markeith Knowlton. In front is Otis Floyd and on your left is Jamall Johnson.
Statistically, this is not the best linebacker grouping in the league, though it might have been if Floyd hadn't missed three games with an injury. But Johnson did lead the CFL with 108 tackles, Knowlton was third with 94 and Floyd had 67.
Critics would point out that despite the number of tackles made by their linebackers, the Cats were vulnerable to the run, finishing sixth in first downs allowed rushing (B.C. was dead last, by the way).
But all three linebackers were excellent against the pass, helping to lead the Ticats to third best in overall yards allowed per game (run plus pass) while B.C. was worst in the league in that stat, too.
None of this is what we're really talking about here, however — it's more about familiarity.
Knowlton, Johnson and Floyd, you see, are all former B.C. Lions, the first two years back and the latter pair just last season.
Add in what you already know — that the Lions have seen their quarterback corps beaten to a pulp — and there's a big problem for the visitors from the Left Coast.
Out in Vancouver this week, Casey Printers (starter No. 4 this year) was saying he's determined to play despite a badly bruised thumb on his throwing hand. Well, maybe.
Then there was Travis Lulay (starter No. 3) who said his shoulder was going to be ready, he was sure of it. OK.
And Buck Pierce (starter No. 1) was getting ready to gut it out. Fine.
By Friday, it looked like Jarious Jackson, the former starter No. 2 who was still "out for the season" as of Monday was suddenly looking like he would dress as the third guy behind Printers and Lulay.
But each of these men is going to be a little off their top game and with the Cats' linebackers knowing the B.C. playbook so well that's going to be enough, it says here, to create a nightmare for Lions head coach Wally Buono.
The only pivot really healthy is fifth stringer Zac Champion, who has almost no experience (he threw 13 more passes this year than kicker Paul McCallum) and is not going to bring enough to the dance to make a difference if it comes down to him.
Both clubs offer excellent running (Martell Mallett and the Ticats' Deandra' Cobb), good receivers, offensive lines, etc.
Hamilton has kicked better and the explosive all-around offensive attack of rookie Marquay McDaniel, who led the league in combined yards with 2,535 (mostly pass receptions and punt returns), means a field position battle breaks the Ticats' way.
And we haven't even mentioned the play of Hamilton quarterback Kevin Glenn, who since taking over as starter from young Quinton Porter has been superb.
Getting this Lions club to 8-10 with so many changes and all those quarterback injuries may be one of Buono's greatest coaching feats in a hall of fame career, but this one just doesn't add up.
Back in the playoff for the first time in five years, the Tiger-Cats will extend this surprising season at least one more week and catch the train for Montreal and the East final.
Prediction: The Calgary Stampeders will defeat the Edmonton Eskimos in the Western Division semifinal (Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET).
Before we proceed, let's say for the record that if Edmonton quarterback Ricky Ray has one those stunning games he's still capable of (say around 30 completions), all bets are off.
If not, this one goes the White Stallions way. Especially since the forecast in Calgary is for rain and six degrees and if that's the case it will cut the passing game down a touch.
It's hard to say the Stamps have struggled this year, coming home with a 10-7-1 record that's three points better than Edmonton's 9-9, but it has been a trial at times, especially in sorting out the receiving corps.
Ken-Yon Rambo was out for most of the season, his replacement Ryan Thelwell joined him in mid-September and others have had to step up to help Jeremaine Copeland and the always great Nick Lewis.
Calgary hasn't dominated the offensive stats as they did last year, but the club was still second in overall yards gained behind Montreal.
Much of that credit goes to the running attack, with league-leading rusher Joffrey Reynolds (1,504 yards) nicely helped along by the fact quarterback Henry Burris can hustle around when he needs to (552 yards).
Any defence would find this hard to handle, but Edmonton's is not just any defence. It happens to be one of the league's worst. And in this game they are faced with a conundrum.
The Eskimos, you see, give up far too many yards in the air, but they are hard to run against (second best in rushing first downs allowed to Montreal). Calgary can attack you either way, so if the running game isn't going on Sunday the Stamps will simply throw, even if the weather's a bit off.
Edmonton is not helpless, by any means. Running back Arkee Whitlock will also be able to find some holes in the Stamps' defence because the White Stallions are better at defending the pass.
Whitlock finished third in touchdowns this year but he's surrounded in the top-5 by three Stamps (Reynolds, Copeland and Burris).
Sandro DeAngelis has been much the better kicker this year than Edmonton's Noel Prefontaine.
All in Calgary's favour, of course, but this is where we circle back to Ricky Ray and his favourite target Fred Stamps. Freddy had the year of his life in 2009, finishing as the CFL's top receiver and he has a knack for finding holes in the secondary.
Ray can simply dominate a game if he's on fire, leading the league as he did in passing yards and he was second to Montreal's Anthony Calvillo in efficiency rating.
Calgary must stop him, and it says here they will find a way as they did twice in the four times the two teams met in the regular season (32-8 and 30-7 victories). The other pair of games were barn burners as the Stamps went 3-1.
We're looking at a Stamps-Roughriders matchup in the final over one province to Saskatchewan.
Let's get those comments rolling in.