Handicapping the 97th Grey Cup

"For one brief moment today I thought I was winning in the game of life. But there was a flag on the play." — Charles M. Schulz (through Charlie Brown).

Sitting at 2-2 for the playoffs (and 4-5 going back two years), we're ready to make our choice for this weekend's winner of the annual Grand National Drunk. As always, you can add your predictions and comments below.

The Montreal Alouettes (16-3) will defeat the Saskatchewan Roughriders (11-7-1) on Sunday at Calgary and win the 97th Grey Cup game.

Saskatchewan fans are an honest bunch. Rather than claim their team is better than everyone else no matter what (you know, like Calgary supporters), they will at times take a different approach.

Such as: Your team is better than our team on paper, sure, but we're going to win anyway because we have Rider Pride®. And Rider Pride® can overcome anything.

Rider Pride® will prevail over mere facts like the Montreal Alouettes are better in almost every offensive and defensive category on the list. Rider Pride® gives us home field advantage wherever we go.

Not this time, Rider fans.

First of all, the whole Charlie Brown thing no longer works for Saskatchewan.

It's now a "have" province, up to its butt in non-tarsand oil. The team won its last Grey Cup just two seasons back. And that incident where some of your fans trashed kicker Paul McCallum's lawn for missing an overtime field goal in 2004 took away the "we're so lovable" fall-back defence.

Your Riders are a darn good football team that, since Kent Austin took over from Danny Barrett three years ago (Ken Miller has coached the last two), has gone 38-20-1, including playoffs.

Strong QB

There's a strong young quarterback in Darian Durant (fourth in yards thrown, second in touchdowns tossed this year) protected by a professional offensive line, a quality running back in Wes Cates and an impressive receiver-by-committee group in Andy Fantuz, Rob Bagg, Chris Getzlaf, Jason Clermont and Gerran Walker.

Saskatchewan can throw out a defence that, while average overall, features a scary pair of defensive ends in Stevie Baggs and John Chick, who can turn a game around themselves.

The kicking's pretty good and special teams usually do a solid job.

None of this adds up to a victory on Sunday, and here's why:

1. Because the Als have been to six previous Grey Cups this decade and won exactly once, there's been a lot of talk about Montreal's inability to win the big game. Those looking for answers to that point to fast starts and slow finishes.

For example, in 2006 the Larks began 7-1 and came home 3-6. Same next year after a 5-4 opening. And it was 5-4 in 2008 after a 6-3 first half.

This season they started 7-2. And finished up 8-1.

2. Much talk has been about how the Als have built up their 15-3 regular-season mark by feasting in the weaker East while the Riders battle out west. Montreal happens to have a better record against the West (6-2) than Saskatchewan (5-4-1).

3. In the key category of giveaways/takeaways (fumbles, interceptions and turnovers on downs for and against), the Larks are an impressive plus-32, while the Riders are only plus-five.

4. Riders fans are big on saying Sunday's Grey Cup is going to be a "home" game for them because of proximity to Regina and all the local Calgary fans will be on their side. Fine, but Montreal has the best road record (6-3) in the league.

5. Montreal won both games against the Riders this season, the first a 43-10 blowout at Regina (remember the road record) and the second a barn burner at home that saw Saskatchewan play well but lose because quarterback Durant was forced into three key interceptions (remember giveaways/takeaways) and the special teams coverage collapsed.

6. Head coach Marc Trestman did lose the Cup final last season, at home, to Calgary. A learning year for the rookie coach. This time around he'll have it pegged.

7. There are 60 (count 'em) stat categories put out by the Canadian Football League each week. Through the regular season, Montreal led 43 of them. Saskatchewan led one — fewest yards penalized. The Riders finished ahead of the Als in just three of those 60 categories.

8. Anthony Calvillo is rested, sharp and ready to bring his league-best quarterback rating of 108.4 out on the McMahon Stadium turf at the head of the CFL's No. 1 offence.

If there is hope for Rider Nation it is in those defensive ends, Baggs and Chick, who could feast on a Montreal offensive line hurt by injuries and players having to perform out of position.

But if Saskatchewan puts a huge emphasis on rushing Calvillo, leaving weaknesses in the flats and middle, the veteran pivot will take advantage.

This will be an exciting, high-scoring, wide-open game. But it ends with Montreal up by two touchdowns.