CFL playoffs: Ricky Ray should lead Argos past Ticats

The Toronto Argonauts (10-8) will defeat the host Hamilton Tiger-Cats (10-8) in the East semifinal on Sunday (1 p.m. ET) at Tim Hortons Field.

Hamilton is 3-0 vs. Toronto this season, outscoring the Argos 111-57 along the way, while QB Zach Collaros threw for 883 yards and four scores. On the other side, Trevor Harris tossed for 794 yards and… four touchdowns.

None of this means diddlysquat this Sunday because neither of those quarterbacks is actually starting.

Collaros is gone for the season and, in the seven weeks since, the club has gone 2-5, including back-to-back losses to Ottawa that cost them first place and a bye into the East final. He was replaced for five games by rookie Jeff Mathews, who won twice, picked up a concussion and is also out.

Now, it's Jeremiah Masoli (named the starter on Friday), who has completed 33 passes in three seasons.

Bringing Toronto's Ricky Ray to the argument.

The future Hall of Famer missed a full year with shoulder trouble and surgery, came back two games ago and looked pretty good.  He has 4,252 completions in 13 seasons, has played in all weather, knows how to win championships and brings confidence to everyone: offence, defence and special teams.

Let's see … 4,252 to 33. Hmm. Of course, Hamilton could surprise by starting Jacory Harris and his 13 completions. That's all time, by the way.

There is no question the Kitties have a better defence than Toronto's (only Winnipeg and Saskatchewan were worse than the Argos), and that is the main argument against this pick. Tiger coordinator Orlondo Steinauer throws so many looks at an offence it's hard to pick up any consistencies.

Ticats don't sack a lot of people

They don't sack a lot of people, preferring to defend in depth, where ball hawks such as Emanuel Davis, Brandon Stewart and Courtney Stephen do their thing. They also take a lot of chances top to bottom and it's a group showing signs of tiring, working harder now with less offensive possession time.

Three weeks ago, they gave up 40 points to the B.C. Lions, bounced back well in the first of the two with Ottawa, then sagged badly in the National Capital Region as QB Henry Burris picked them apart for 44 points on almost 500 total yards.

Toronto's defence, on the other hand, can be bad at times (not Saskatchewan awful, you understand, but bad). They do one thing pretty well, and that's putting pressure on the pivot. Hamilton, to repeat, has inexperienced pivots.

Kicking? That goes solidly to the Cats, who had Justin Medlock lead the league in scoring, and he can punt well. Toronto's kicking has been below average all year and must step up (oft-injured Swayze Waters may be ready to go).

Can the Argos' sorry history in The Hammer, going back to the Second World War, make a difference? Only if history catches passes and makes blocks.

Weather forecast for Sunday is sunny and mild, 14 degrees, with a wind around 16 km/h. This works in an inexperienced quarterback's favour, so it's actually good news for the Cats.

Overall though, if we're talking Ricky Ray vs. Masoli and Harris, we're going with the old pro.

How this can go wrong

• Returner Brandon Banks goes off. Cats' special teams are so well coached by Jeff Reinebold, the O might not need long drives if Banks piles up yards and gives good field position.
• Hamilton is able to run the ball. Cats were seventh in rushing (Argos were last), and weren't helped by injuries. If they come up with 100-plus the hard way, that changes things.
• The Toronto deep outside coverage becomes a deciding factor. There has been something wrong down there all year and if Masoli can get the ball into those regions regularly, the Argos lose.
• Hamilton scores points off turnovers. Cats led the league this year with an impressive 184, to Toronto's last place 71.