So you're saying there's a chance? Raptors have 1% shot at top pick in NBA draft
Tuesday lottery to decide who gets right to pick French phenom Victor Wembanyama
The NBA draft lottery has offered teams a quick path from bad to good for nearly four decades. The stakes this year are unusually high with French phenom Victor Wembanyama the top prospect.
The lottery format has undergone a few changes since the New York Knicks won the first one in 1985, when there were seven teams.
There are twice as many lottery teams now, all hoping, like the Knicks did when they drafted Patrick Ewing, to have luck strike at the right time and land the player who can turn around a franchise.
The Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets and Spurs all have a 14 per cent chance of getting him, but there will be 14 teams at the McCormick Place Convention Center that have hopes.
The Pistons won the lottery in 2021 and selected Oklahoma State guard Cade Cunningham, and Detroit picked fifth overall in 2022 (Jaden Ivey).
When is the lottery?
The league will hold this year's lottery Tuesday in Chicago, with the winner getting the No. 1 pick and the chance to draft Victor Wembanyama. He is considered the best prospect in years — perhaps since LeBron James went No. 1 20 years ago.
The telecast begins at 8 p.m. ET on ESPN and during the televised portion, deputy commissioner Mark Tatum opens envelopes that reveal the draft order. Neither he nor any of the representatives on stage will know the results until then.
Will Wemby be there?
The most coveted prospect in this year's draft will not be there. Standing seven-feet-five with guard skills and agility — his wingspan is eight feet — Wembanyama plays his last regular-season game for his pro team in France on Tuesday, a few hours before the lottery.
The NBA took notice a few years ago and, after he dropped 37 points and seven 3-pointers in a showcase event with other G League talent in Las Vegas last summer, the league purchased streaming rights to Wembanyama's regular-season games.
He moved out of home at the age of 14 to prepare for a professional basketball career. Today, he has a personal trainer manually logging his sleep hours.
Even James knows a "unicorn" when he sees one.
"Everybody's been a unicorn over the last few years, but he is more like an alien," James said. "No one has ever seen anyone as tall as he is but as fluid and as graceful as he is out on the floor. At 7-4, 7-5, 7-3, whatever the case may be, his ability to put the ball on the floor, shoot stepback jumpers out of the post, stepback 3s, catch-and-shoot 3s, block shots, he's for sure a generational talent."
All the teams that missed the post-season are in the Wembanyama Sweepstakes. In addition to Houston, Detroit, and San Antonio, the list includes Charlotte, Portland, Orlando, Indiana, Washington, Utah, Dallas, Chicago, Oklahoma City, Toronto and New Orleans.
Per Tankathon, the Raptors, currently slotted 13th, own a one per cent chance of landing the top pick and a 4.7 per cent chance of jumping into the top four. There is also a 2.3 per cent chance they slip to 14th.
The likeliest scenario, at 92.9 per cent, involves the Raptors simply staying put at 13th.
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What about those ping-pong balls?
Fourteen ping-pong balls numbered 1 to 14 are placed in a machine and the teams are assigned various four-number combinations. The balls are mixed for 20 seconds before the first one is drawn. The remaining balls are mixed again before another is drawn, and that happens twice more until four have been removed.
Teams have representatives in the lottery room where the actual drawing takes place and another on the podium for the televised announcement. Representatives in the lottery room can observe the process but can't the results. Everyone in the room has to turn over their cell phones and any other forms of communication when they enter.
Any team that doesn't win the rights to Wembanyama still has options, especially among wing players. G League point guard Scoot Henderson, Alabama forward Brandon Miller and Villanova small forward Cam Whitmore are among the prospects likely to be in the running for the No. 2 pick.
Houston has been runner-up in the lottery before. Not since 2002 have the lottery balls bounced the Rockets' way. That was the last time Houston had the No. 1 pick, selecting Chinese centre Yao Ming. Houston just missed in 2021.
The Rockets landed the No. 2 pick and selected guard Jalen Green out of the G League and have used five first-round picks in the past two drafts. That includes No. 3 overall pick Jabari Smith Jr. (Auburn) last June.
Wake Forest centre Tim Duncan was the prize the last time the Spurs picked first overall in 1997. San Antonio went into that lottery draw with a 21.6 percent chance of landing the No. 1 pick.
Why doesn't the worst team have the best odds to win?
The short answer is to avoid any incentive for a team to finish last.
In the first years of the lottery from 1985-89, every team had the same odds. But the team with the worst record got the top pick only once and that led the league to implementing a weighted system. The current system also does not guarantee the worst teams get one of the top four picks.
The Pistons, with the worst record, can have no worse than the No. 5 pick. Houston could end up sixth and San Antonio could fall as far as No. 7. Picks No. 5-14 go in the inverse order of the teams' finish in the standings.
With files from CBC Sports and Field Level Media
