Blue Jays' post-season fate rests on 6-game homestand against Yankees, Rays

The Toronto Blue Jays' post-season fate will be determined this week.

They will host the New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays in a six-game homestand starting Tuesday at 7:07 p.m. ET.

The Blue Jays, who have won seven of nine games since a four-game sweep at the hands of Texas, hold the second of three American League wild-card berths.

How Toronto fares against the Yankees and Rays will help determine if the Blue Jays finish second or third in the wild-card race.

Three AL West teams will also have some control on the wild-card picture, with the Texas Rangers, Houston Astros, and Seattle Mariners also in the post-season hunt.

Texas entered play on Monday atop the west division, with Houston holding the third wild-card spot and the Mariners a half a game back of the Astros.

Seattle lost 5-1 in the first game of a three-game series on Monday night. The outcome of that series, coupled with a series of Blue Jays losses at Rogers Centre, could knock Toronto down to the third wild-card spot.

WATCH | Blue Jays broadcaster Dan Shulman sizes up team's playoff chances:

The Blue Jays are chasing a wild-card spot. Will they get it?

1 year ago

Duration 2:06

Dan Shulman, the Toronto Blue Jays' play-by-play announcer, says the math is in the team's favour as they try to clinch a wild-card spot. 'What looked bleak 10 days ago for the Blue Jays now looks good,' he said.

Poor record within AL East

Significantly, the Blue Jays' lacklustre 19-27 intradivision record means if they end the regular season with an identical record to the Mariners (29-16 against AL West opponents), Toronto would be out.

It's very unlikely the Blue Jays will fall all the way out of a playoff spot, however.

FanGraphs.com, a baseball analysis website, has Toronto's odds of clinching a wild-card spot at 97.7 per cent on Monday. Baseball Reference.com had the Blue Jays' chances of seeing the post-season at 97.9 per cent.

Ace pitcher Kevin Gausman (12-9) will get the start Tuesday, with New York sending Michael King (4-7) to the mound. He struck out a career-high 13 batters, the most by any Yankee this season, in a 6-1 home loss to Toronto last Wednesday.

New York (79-77) is six games out of the AL's third wild-card spot.

Tampa Bay has already clinched a post-season berth and holds the AL's first wild-card spot, but could switch places with the East-leading Baltimore Orioles this week.

The Rangers opened a three-game series against the Angels in Los Angeles on Monday. The Rays start a two-game set in Boston on Tuesday.