The Blue Jays aren't only ready to compete now — they're built to last
Star-studded core including Guerrero Jr, Bichette locked in for long term
There is plenty of hype surrounding the 2022 Toronto Blue Jays — and rightfully so.
By all measures, Canada's lone MLB team has the makings of a World Series contender.
The Jays boast one of the best lineups in baseball, led by MVP candidate Vladimir Guerrero Jr., former World Series MVP George Springer and shortstop Bo Bichette.
Their rotation goes five strong, featuring last season's marquee trade deadline addition Jose Berrios as ace and free-agent signing Kevin Gausman (formerly of the San Francisco Giants) as a top-tier No. 2.
The bullpen, like most, comes with question marks. But Canadian closer Jordan Romano equipped himself well in his first year in the role last season, and he's set for ninth-inning duty once again.
The contender status is reflected in both statistical projections and betting odds. But what those numbers also tell us is that there's a great likelihood Toronto will not win the 2022 World Series.
ZiPS, Fangraphs' trusted projection model, has the Blue Jays pencilled in for the same 88 wins as their division rival New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays.
There is so much that can go wrong over a 162-game MLB season — especially in the loaded AL East.
It's a good thing, then, that the Blue Jays aren't just all-in for 2022. The team is primed to contend for years to come.
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Playoff changes increase odds
The addition of one more playoff team per league, beginning this season, obviously increases Toronto's odds moving forward.
And starting in 2023, MLB will implement a balanced schedule. For years, Toronto was doomed by its division, forced to play the likes of the Yankees and Red Sox more than out-of-division playoff hopefuls. But next season, the Jays will play the Kansas City Royals as many times as they do the Yankees.
The Blue Jays have top players guaranteed to be with the team for a long stretch.
Springer, Berrios and Gausman are all signed through 2026. The team's control over Guerrero Jr., still just 23, and Bichette, 24, ends one year earlier.
Those are arguably Toronto's five most important players in 2022. Four of them play premium positions, and the fifth — Guerrero Jr. — placed second in MVP voting last season. That they're locked in for the long term gives the Blue Jays flexibility to build around them and add where needed over the next half-decade.
Guerrero Jr., Bichette provide backbone
The two young stars particularly provide the backbone of a strong team.
Guerrero Jr., lived up to his top-prospect status last year after being moved across the diamond from third base to first. He became an offensive force, slugging 48 home runs with 111 runs batted in and an OPS (on-base percentage plus slugging percentage) of 1.002 (players rarely eclipse the 1.000-mark).
"What we did last year was the trailer," Guerrero Jr., said at the beginning of spring training. "Now you guys are going to see the movie."
"Bo has been super impressive," Chapman told The Toronto Sun. "He's at the field early. He always works his butt off. A guy like that, he's hungry to learn and hungry to work hard. He just seemed to be really focused on his defence this off-season."
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Less urgency in 2022
Given the Springer injury and nomadic nature of the 2021 season which saw the Jays play home games in Dunedin and Buffalo before Toronto, there's a feeling of "only uphill from here" around the team.
But 2021 also brought a surprise Cy Young win from Robbie Ray and 45 home runs in a career year for second baseman Marcus Semien. Combined with the Guerrero MVP bid and Bichette breakout, there was plenty that went right.
And because Ray and Semien were on the cusp of free agency, there was a sense of urgency — it's tough to lose to players like that and recover. Ray ultimately signed in Seattle, while Semien went to Texas.
In Gausman and Chapman, Toronto hopes it found worthy replacements. But with former on board through 2026 and the latter through 2023, there's time to find out.
The new guys in their new home 💙 <a href="https://t.co/by95IpcB2J">pic.twitter.com/by95IpcB2J</a>
—@BlueJays
In fact, the entire Blue Jays core is signed through at least next season.
Meanwhile, top prospects in catcher Gabriel Moreno and shortstop Orelvis Martinez, the latter of whom made waves in spring training, could find themselves helping the big-league club in a late-season World Series push.
The Jose Bautista-led Blue Jays of 2015 and 2016 were, in many ways, lightning in a bottle. And that provided plenty of excitement.
But the Vladimir Guerrero Jr.-led Blue Jays of today? They're built to last.