Marcus Stroman: Should he be sent to the minors?

When the 2016 MLB season started, Marcus Stroman was rightfully pegged as the Toronto Blue Jays ace. He was their opening day starter and since returning from a torn ACL in September of last season, he could seemingly do no wrong.

He won all four of his regular-season starts to finish off 2015. He went 1-0 in the playoffs, performing well in his other two starts. He penned a loved letter to the city of Toronto in the offseason, capturing the hearts of Jays' fans everywhere.

But now he's at a crossroads.

After being good-but-not-great over the first month and a half of the season, Stroman has been one of the worst pitchers in the Majors since. His last eight starts have produced an earned-run average of 7.58, bumping his season ERA to 5.33, which is tied for sixth-worst among qualified starting pitchers.

"He is far too talented to be struggling like this," said Jon Morosi of MLB.com on Sportsnet 590 The Fan. "At some point in time you have to cut your losses and probably get him to the minor leagues and get him out of the pressure, let him work on some things."

Which brings up the question — what do the Blue Jays do? Send him to the minors to work on regaining his mechanics, or let him work out his problems with the Jays?

The case for staying in the Majors

The situation might not be as dire as the numbers make it seem.  Over those eight starts, Stroman pitched two gems against the Phillies and Twins. Those teams are not offensive powerhouses by any means (they rank 29th and 27th in runs per game), but good pitchers are expected to beat bad teams, which Stroman did.

Four of the starts were also against AL East division rivals Boston and Baltimore, both good teams who rank first and fifth in runs per game. Although performing poorly against divisional opponents shouldn't be accepted, the rough stretch can at least be justified somewhat by the quality of opponents he's faced.

There's also reason to suggest that Toronto simply doesn't have any better options in the minors to replace Stroman.

Drew Hutchison, last year's opening day starter, has widely been considered the best and only option to jump into the rotation should Toronto need an arm at some point. He's posted a 2.99 ERA in 14 starts at Triple-A, pacing his minor-league rotation with a 1.11 WHIP.

But he has had a big enough sample size at the Major League level to suggest he's not capable of pitching against the best baseball players in the world. Last year he started 28 games, with an unimpressive 5.57 ERA and 1.48 WHIP.

Over the course of his career, he hasn't been much better, with a WHIP of 1.36 and an ERA of 4.89.

It could be argued the option of keeping Stroman in the Majors and hoping he regains his form — he's been downright dominant at times in his short career — outweighs replacing him with a below-average pitcher.

The case for being sent to the minors

For a 25-year-old pitcher at the beginning of his career, a continued drubbing at the Major League level isn't the best thing for his confidence.

And there are numbers to suggest that Stroman's mechanics may need to be revamped in order to get back to the level he has shown in the past.

His pitch velocity is down across the board this season compared to the rest of his career, especially when you look at his rookie season in 2014. His fastball velocity, according to fangraphs.com, has dropped (93.6 mph in 2014 to 92.2 mph in 2016), and so has his cutter (82.7 to 80.7), his slider (86.1 to 85.0) and his changeup (85.8 to 84.0).

Batters are hitting him harder than ever before.

This season, Stroman's amount of balls classified as being hit with hard contact (fangraphs.com) is 33.6 per cent, compared to 21.8 per cent in 2015 and 23.5 per cent in 2014. Soft contact is down, with only 16.4 per cent hitting it softly compared to 24.4 per cent last year.

When looking at velocity and opponents' quality of contact numbers, it's easy to see that there is more to Stroman's decline than just pinning it on good competition.

Sending Stroman down and allowing him to work on things against inferior competition could help him be more effective later in the season when Toronto will presumably be chasing a playoff spot.

Conclusion

Whether Stroman will return to form soon is anyone's guess. Common thinking suggests that being sent down gives a player the best chance to work on problems and get back to being the player everyone expects them to be. (See Halladay, Roy.)

But when the replacement isn't much of an improvement, hoping Stroman's current eight-game stretch is just a blip might be the best course of action.

His next two scheduled starts won't be easy, coming on Canada Day against the red-hot Cleveland Indians (on a 11-game winning streak) and the World Series champion Kansas City Royals. Those two starts may go a long way in determining where Stroman is in the next few weeks. 

With the Blue Jays fighting for positioning in the tough American League and there being no actual indication from Toronto management that Stroman is on the cusp of going down, the team needs to hope their de facto ace discovers what's ailing him, and finds a solution soon.