The smashing success of Justin Smoak

There wasn't much reason to believe in Justin Smoak seven years into his MLB career.

Selected by the Texas Rangers 11th overall in the 2008 MLB draft, Smoak was touted as the next Mark Teixeira: a smooth-fielding, switch-hitting first baseman with power. 

He had twice been named a Baseball America top-25 prospect. He struggled some in his first taste of major-league action in 2010, but not enough to dissuade the Seattle Mariners from trading for him as the centrepiece of a deal sending star pitcher Cliff Lee to Texas midway through that campaign.

Missed opportunities

Over 4 ½ seasons with Seattle, the struggles in Texas became the norm. He consistently struck out over 20 per cent of his at bats, which is fine if you're a power hitter, but Smoak never managed more than 20 home runs or a batting average higher than .238. By the end of a dismal 2014 season, the Mariners gave up.

Smoak was claimed by the Blue Jays on Oct. 29, 2014 as a reclamation project. The logic followed: bring a power hitter to the hitter-friendly Rogers Centre and watch the balls fly over the wall. It worked with Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. 

For two seasons, it didn't happen for Smoak. In 2015, he lost his job to Chris Colabello. In 2016, it was Encarnacion. Strangely, in mid-July last season, the Jays announced a two-year extension with the busted prospect worth $4.125 million US per season. The deal was panned by just about everyone.

In 2017, Smoak has hit the ball as hard as always; he's just done it more. Hence, 20 homers in 71 games, and more than double the amount of "Smoak bombs" per plate appearance (one for every 13) than his previous seven seasons (one for every 27).

Simply put, Smoak is Toronto's best hitter. So what changed?

Some say it's just that Smoak was finally given an opportunity without someone breathing down his neck, like Encarnacion. 

Thing is, he had that opportunity in Seattle. He was acquired to be their first baseman of the future. His competition for the spot ranged from Jesus Montero to Logan Morrison. He couldn't beat out the latter in 2014, in a season where Morrison hit .262 with just 11 home runs.

In Toronto in 2015, the 'Smoakabello' platoon with Chris Colabello yielded decent results, though Smoak still had troubles reaching base. By the playoffs, Colabello was starting every game.

Last season, Colabello got nailed with an 80-game PED suspension. Prime opportunity, right? Sure, there was Encarnacion, but manager John Gibbons always preferred the parrot-walker at DH. Yet Smoak struggled to the tune of a .214/.314/.391 slash line, and was rewarded with a grand total of two playoff at-bats. 

He struck out both times.

Power rising

Just watching on television, strikeouts were always the most frustrating part of Smoak's game. "What is he SWINGING at?" became a common refrain.

It's accepted in baseball that making contact, hitting the ball hard, and getting lift on the ball are the main goals of a hitter. In recent years, especially, fly balls have been valued more than ever.

In March, Dave Cameron of FanGraphs pointed out that using exit velocity, launch angle (the lift a batter gets on the ball) and contact percentage, Smoak's most favourable 2016 comparisons were Freddie Freeman and Mark Trumbo. 

Freeman hit .302 and clubbed 34 home runs for the Atlanta Braves last year, finishing sixth in MVP voting. Trumbo led the American League with 47 home runs, taking home the silver slugger award in the process. Not bad company for Smoak.

This year, he's turned into a monstrous combination of the two, on pace to hit .303 and swat 45 dingers.

The goal for hitters is to put the barrel of the bat on the ball. That's where hard contact and lift comes from. According to baseballsavant.com, Smoak is tied for the third most "barrels" (balls hit in the sweet spot of the bat) this season, tied with Paul Goldschmidt and Miguel Sano, and trailing sluggers Aaron Judge and Khris Davis. Similarly, Smoak ranks seventh with barrels in 11.2 per cent of at-bats. Second in that category? None other than Freeman.

Barrel on the ball

So we know that Smoak is hitting the ball hard, but what about the strikeouts? And the swings at balls in the dirt?

"I think a big thing for me is that I've had counts where I've been 2-0 or 3-1, and I've gotten curveballs or changeups in those counts and I've been able to lay off them," Smoak told The Athletic. 

"When I'm at that point and it's 2-0 and I'm dead-red on a heater and he throws me a curveball and I'm able to lay off of it, that's when I know I'm in a good place."

Interestingly, while the percentage of pitches Smoak swings at has stayed the same, his contact percentage has improved. To wit: he's putting his bat on ball eight per cent more of the time, while cutting down his misses by a third.

"I feel like I'm a little more relaxed right now at the plate," Smoak told The Athletic."That's always the key to having success."

That success wasn't just because Smoak was handed an opportunity this year. Instead, the Blue Jays' newest clean-up hitter cleaned up his act by cleaning up the strikezone.

Now, Toronto may have its own Freddie Freeman.