In House panel: April 2
This week's In House panelists Rosemary Barton, host of CBC's Power & Politics, and La Presse's Joël-Denis Bellavance, look at what's ahead for the NDP at the party's upcoming convention in Edmonton and what message Tom Mulcair's tough words on Trump and Trudeau might be signaling to his party's delegates.
Chris Hall: How do you see the convention playing out for Tom Mulcair?
Rosemary Barton: I think he's probably going to hang on to the leadership. I don't think he's going to hang on by the kind of margins he'd like to, 80 or 90 per cent. I think part of the reason he's going to hang on is there's a sense that if he's going to leave, it will be on his terms, not because they pushed him out.
Joël-Denis Bellavance: There's nobody waiting to fill his shoes if he's voted out. Whenever people, or a party, or an apparatchik in a party are planning a push, there is somebody waiting to take over, but there is none of that. Those who are critical of Tom Mulcair have no Plan B. I think if the NDP were to kick him out, it might push the party into chaos.
CH: Does the NDP have a diversity problem, like Rebecca Blaikie said in the party's campaign review?
RB: That struck me too, because I didn't necessarily think the NDP was not diverse. But I think if you contrast the party with what the Liberal caucus is right now, you could certainly say it is not diverse enough.
JDB: The NDP finds itself in a very particular situation right now. The Liberals run by campaigning to the left, and they're governing from the left. So the NDP has to find a new niche, a new mission, facing a very progressive government in power right now.
CH: Do you agree with the NDP's conclusion that a distinct strategy is needed in Quebec?
JDB: I would agree with that. I would argue the NDP may have to think of that strategy, having a micro-campaign in Quebec.
RB: It wasn't just that they didn't have someone on a bus out there in Quebec pumping out their message, it was that they didn't have a message for Quebec which was odd given that was where much of their support was. They were trying to support the same thing they were offering to the rest of the country and it obviously didn't work.
JDB: It almost looked like they were taking Quebec for granted, by not having closer to the bread and butter issues of Quebecers.
CH: Mulcair had some tough words about Donald Trump this week, calling him a fascist and challenging the Prime Minister to publicly oppose the Republican nominee front runner too. What was his strategy here?
RB: I tried to get Justin Trudeau to say something about Donald Trump too, and he wouldn't really bite. I think Tom Mulcair is trying to do a couple of things - he's trying to get into the news, at a time when he wants to show he's tough and has backbone, in contrast to the Prime Minister who let's be honest can't go around calling Donald Trump a fascist. I think he's also trying to outflank the Liberals. The NDP is very confused about how to do that, so maybe that helps rile up the base a bit as you're just headed into the convention.
JDB: That was a message destined for the base. I think Mr. Mulcair was trying to whip up support in advance of his leadership review. Mr. Trudeau could not call Mr. Trump such a name. We have to think about the 'after Obama' and who's going to be the leader of that powerful country, and you have to keep all your doors open, and that's what Mr. Trudeau is doing.
CH: EI should have been a good news story for the Liberals, but the focus has been on who didn't get included in the 12 regions. Was this a misstep for the government?
RB: I think it is a problem, and I'm surprised they didn't see it coming. I think it speaks to a larger problem with the EI system overall. I don't think it speaks to modern realities; for instance, like people commuting.
JDB: I'm shocked this wasn't expected by the Liberals. The kind of rumblings we're hearing from Alberta...I was expecting blanket coverage for Alberta. Everyone's suffering in Alberta, it has a domino effect on everyone in the economy.