Ontario election looks like a toss-up
Robert Fisher | CBC News | Posted: September 2, 2011 12:46 PM | Last Updated: September 2, 2011
So the 2011 election campaign in Ontario begins. But then again, it was on ever since Liberal Leader Dalton McGuinty won his second majority in 2007.
Practically speaking, from the time he left an Ottawa stage hand-in-hand with his wife, Terri, that October night, the Liberals began preparing for this election.
But what they didn’t know then was just how bumpy the ride was going to be to get to this campaign.
Election 2011 begins with the Liberals trailing the Progressive Conservatives in the polls. PC Leader Tim Hudak has a seven- to 10-point lead, a handful of polls taken in recent weeks suggest.
But that lead was larger for a long time and it seemed insurmountable. Not any longer.
The fact is, in any election — provincial, municipal or federal — a 10-point lead can dissolve overnight.
Three-peat a rare feat
In a month-long campaign, one wrong answer or one gaffe can spell the end of that lead. Right now it appears an aggressive Liberal ad campaign directed at Hudak has started to narrow the gap.
McGuinty is after a prize that has eluded many previous premiers. He's had back-to-back majority governments. But then so, too, did Conservative Premier Mike Harris.
What McGuinty wants is a third majority. Trouble is, that’s a tall order and hasn’t been done, says Graham Murray, editor of Inside Queen‘s Park, since Conservative Premier Leslie Frost 52 years ago.
Even former Conservative premier Bill Davis — who remains to this day a quiet, behind-the-scenes force in provincial politics and a draw at party campaign events — only managed majorities in 1971 and a decade later.
But in between those years, Davis had to settle for minority governments in 1975 and ’77.
Privately, some senior Liberals fret that McGuinty’s best before date was up some time ago. And they think that the best he can do is return them to Queen’s Park with a minority.
But other Liberals, citing recent polling, say that’s "nonsense." McGuinty, they argue, has a solid record to run on and Hudak carries the baggage from unpopular decisions of the Harris government and from Ernie Eves' brief stint as premier.
Experience counts
They also count on McGuinty’s campaign experience.
Hudak and NDP Leader Andrea Horwath are in their first provincial elections as leaders and they're about to find out just how tough it can be.
I’ve covered 10 Ontario election campaigns and every party leader I've talked with has, without exception, told me how difficult it was in that first campaign.
Running as a candidate in a riding is one thing; being responsible for all 107 ridings is quite another.
Even learning to pace yourself for the grind of campaigning from one end of the province to the other is a skill that's only developed by doing it.
Harris lost his first campaign as Conservative leader. McGuinty lost his first election. Bob Rae tried and failed in his first two in 1985 and 1987.
But Rae finally won in 1990, defeating a Liberal government plagued by scandal, misspending and, according to cabinet insiders from those days — "arrogance."
Some Liberals see parallels to today’s McGuinty government.
Hudak and Horwath are young and smart and have been preparing for this moment since they won their party's leadership races. They have put out policies designed to attract support from "hard working Ontario families."
They have and will continue to attack the McGuinty record. And undoubtedly will pick up increased support from where their parties were after the 2007 election.
Conflicted electorate
But can either beat McGuinty?
The Tories remain confident their hard work will pay off. New Democrats are privately expecting one of those "moral victories" on election night and think moving from 10 to 20 seats is "within the realm of possibility."
And they salivate at the prospect of playing a significant role in a minority government.
The polls all indicate, more or less, that Ontarians are conflicted about this election.
Travelling the province this summer, I didn't detect much enthusiasm for any of the three main party leaders, and some believe it’s time for a change of government.
But a change to what? Only Horwath right now enjoys an approval rating higher than her disapproval rating. Hudak and McGuinty both carry large disapproval ratings in to this campaign.
Majority. Minority. McGuinty stays or goes. Hudak and Horwath get their second chance crack at it in 2015.
One way or another that's all possible. It will all depend on what voters actually say when they cast their ballots Oct. 6.