Trying to operate a business under punishing tariffs is hard enough, but it's another story when those tariffs are threatened and then paused over and over.

It all adds up to a cloud of anxiety and uncertainty for local business owners, unable to chart a clear path forward for the future because it's anyone's guess what that future will look like.

U.S. President Donald Trump added to the confusion on Thursday when he announced a pause of 25 per cent tariffs on some goods from Canada and Mexico until April 2 — tariffs that took effect this week and prompted Canada to enact retaliatory levies.

It remains murky what goods will see the tariff reprieve. White House officials said it would only apply to Canadian exports "compliant" with The Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement. Canada's finance minister says a vast majority of Canadian exports are, or can quickly become, CUSMA compliant.

"It is extremely difficult to plan for something that is a complete unknown right now," said Anna Donaldson, co-founder of Donaldson Home Services in London.

February and March is when the company orders air conditioning units for the summer and begins making hiring decisions. But the threat of a possible trade war with Canada's largest trading partner has turned an annual routine into an economic gamble.

The company is also grappling with higher costs for AC units from regulatory changes that took effect this year, and the threat of additional U.S. tariffs to counter Canada's retaliatory levies.

Then there are 25 per cent American tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, set to take effect next week. Most AC units and furnaces come from the U.S., primarily made with Canadian steel, Donaldson says.

"Do we order air conditioners for this summer if they're going to be delivered to us at a 50 or 60 per cent price increase?" she said. Load up on stock and risk it going unsold or sold at a loss, or cut their inventory and risk a sweltering, high-demand summer with eased tariffs?

Regardless, the wrong move could cost the company substantially, she said.

Donaldson was among 20 small businesses who participated in a Feb. 28 roundtable hosted by the London Chamber of Commerce at the request of Rechie Valdez, the federal minister for small business.

Out of a diverse collection of sectors came similar concerns of confusion and uncertainty, said Graham Henderson, the chamber's CEO.

"I think we are seriously underestimating the impact this is going to have on small businesses, and I mean businesses that employ fewer than 50 people," he said.

"I've heard people say, 'Look, I give up. I can't take this anymore.' You know, Canada's resilient, 'elbows up,' yada yada. But at the end of the day, this is exhausting for small business people."

Last month, Mayor Josh Morgan met with Henderson and other economic leaders to discuss shoring up the local economy. Some present, particularly manufacturers, indicated orders were already drying up and layoffs were already happening, Henderson said.

"There has been layoffs. I know of a few plants that have laid off," said Jason Bates, general manager of the London Region Manufacturing Council.

While the tariff pause helps stave off a trade war for now, it doesn't solve any long-term problems, he said. "He's just essentially kicking the can down the road."

Bates said some good that could come from the chaos is a push toward Canadian supply chains and improving interprovincial trade, not to mention increased domestic procurement by public entities.

City hall is in the midst of reviewing its procurement policies, and the Mayor's office says anchor institutions, including Fanshawe, Western, and London's two main school boards, have committed to doing so.

Henderson said it was important all levels of government show they have the back of Canadian businesses, and provide clear communication about their plans and supports.

Last week, Morgan unveiled three initiatives aimed at protecting the local economy, and on Wednesday, launched The London Economic Response Team, a new task force.

"In the short-term, we will work on ensuring a coordinated response, while supporting businesses in adapting to trade disruptions. In the longer-term, I envision London positioning itself as a more self-reliant and globally competitive economy," Morgan said in a statement.

That includes working to make supply chains less dependent on "vulnerable trade flows," and help companies enter new domestic and international markets, he said.