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The Current Transcript for November 22, 2023

Host: Matt Galloway

STORIES FROM THIS EPISODE

Prologue

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My family who are being held in clear violation of human rights. They were deliberately taken. And they need to be brought back.

MATT GALLOWAY: For almost seven weeks, Aharon Broduch has been waiting for his family to come home. His sister in law and her three children were believed taken hostage by Hamas on the 7th of October. Now, a deal is afoot to release some of those held in a four day pause in fighting. In 30 minutes, the latest on the truce and the role of Qatar in the at least temporary stopping of this war. Also this morning in Argentina, the man who will be president is known for his impressive sideburns, comments on abortion and the climate crisis and for waving around a chainsaw that he says he wants to take to that nation's government. Coming up, the anger that propelled a far right political outsider into the driver's seat. Plus.

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The absence of having children in my life makes me feel as though I'm not really living. I'm just sort of existing.

MG: Madeleine wants to have children. She just can't afford it. And she's not alone. In an hour, how a cost of living crisis has led many Canadians to postpone or give up entirely on the idea of having a family at a time when birth rates in this country are already plummeting. But with affordability top of mind for so many Canadians. We begin with the federal finance minister. Good morning. I'm Matt Galloway and this is the Current.

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Guests: Chrystia Freeland, Carolyn Whitzman

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VOICE 1: It's not even a mini budget. It is a micro budget. It does not meet the urgency of what Canadians are going through and doesn't really meet their needs.

VOICE 2: This update can be summed up very simply. Prices up. Rent up. Debt up. Taxes up. Time's up. Common sense conservatives will vote non-confidence.

MG: The federal government's fall economic statement is getting some poor reviews from conservative leader Pierre Poilievre and Jagmeet Singh of the NDP. The deputy prime minister and Finance minister, Chrystia Freeland, unveiled that statement yesterday. At a time when Canadians are struggling with an affordability crisis. Chrystia Freeland joins me now. Deputy Prime Minister, good morning. You said in your speech yesterday that your economic plan is working. Rents are up something like 8% in the past year. Mortgage costs are up about 30%. People are feeling this on a daily basis. Is that what working looks like right now?

CHRYSTIA FREELAND: Good morning, Matt. And I certainly did not expect positive reviews from the Conservative leader. I absolutely recognise that these are challenging times for Canadians and they're challenging times for people around the world. What is important for Canadians to know is our government is there to support them. It's important for them to recognise the progress we're making collectively in getting through these challenging times. Yesterday, before I unveiled the fall economic statement, we had the inflation number for October down to 3.1% from a peak of 8.1%. Things are still challenging, but that is progress. We also now have one million more jobs than we had before Covid hit. Again, things are challenging for Canadians for sure. Grocery prices are a challenge. Rent is a challenge. Renewing your mortgage is a challenge, but having a job is really meaningful. And wages, in addition to there being a lot of jobs in the country right now, wages have increased more than inflation for the past nine months in a row.

MG: Do you think do you think that that matters.

CHRYSTIA FREELAND: Real things in people's lives--

MG: Do those real things Do those real things touch people, though, who are working, people who are living in their cars or people who are moving in with their ageing parents or squeezing their families, as we saw in Weston in Toronto, into tiny apartments because they couldn't possibly afford to get anything else.

CHRYSTIA FREELAND: Oh, I think that having a job and having wages increase over the past nine months, I think that touches every single Canadian. Now, having said that, am I - and I think inflation being down to 3.1%. That touches every single Canadian. Now, does that mean that I am sanguine about the situation? Absolutely not. And I'm really glad to hear you talking about housing, because I think that is the single most urgent need. And that is why we announced a number of new measures to get more homes built faster in Canada, to get more affordable homes built faster. And one thing that I would really like to highlight is because I think this is an area where a lot of Canadians have real concerns. Is it support for people who are concerned about renewing their mortgages in this time of high interest rates? So we announced yesterday for, I think, the first time in Canadian history, the Canadian mortgage charter. And for people who are listening. And if you're worried about renewing your mortgage, please Google this because this outlines some really specific tailored forms of relief that you can expect from your bank when you go to renew your mortgage.

MG: What about the two thirds of Canadians who don't actually own a home right now? There was a poll that was done in October saying that two thirds of Canadians who don't own a home say that they've given up on things, who don't own a home, who don't own a home, who don't own a home. No, no--

CHRYSTIA FREELAND: But it's not two thirds of Canadians. But it's one third of Canadians who don't own a home. I'm worried about those people, too. But two thirds of Canadians own a home.

MG: The polling said, just to be clear, that two thirds of Canadians who do not own a home right now say that they have given up on that dream of ever owning a home.

CHRYSTIA FREELAND: Two thirds of those who currently don't.

MG: Is there anything that would suggest that that that outlook is any different for them now? Is there any reason for them to believe that they will ever be able to own a home in this country?

CHRYSTIA FREELAND: Absolutely. And one of the things I want to say to the Canadians who don't own a home, who and not everyone wants to buy a home. But for the Canadians who do, the first home savings account, which was launched in April, is proving to be really, really popular. We have more than 250,000 Canadians. By definition, these are people who don't own a home because you can only use it to buy your first home. So that's 250,000 Canadians who want to own a home, and they are voting with their money because they're putting it in that savings account. And I would urge everyone who is interested in saving up for a home. It's a great way to do it. And it will really, really help you.

MG: If they can if they can afford any money to save in the first place because of--

CHRYSTIA FREELAND: 80,000 Canadians who can because they've actually put their money in those account. We're glad we're able to support them.

MG: Let me just ask one final thing on housing. There's a couple of other things I want to talk to. But one of the things is that the funding in this statement for affordable housing and for loans, for rental construction doesn't begin until 2025. 2025, is your government still going to be in power in 2025?

CHRYSTIA FREELAND: The funding that we announced yesterday is topping out programs that exist right now and that are working and are operating right now.

MG: But with direct funding for loans and for rental construction. Right.

CHRYSTIA FREELAND: Right, because those programs, Matt, are already up and running. And so what we did it and I'll give you a really concrete example close to where you're sitting right now. I was in Toronto on Tuesday together with Mayor Chow, and we announced a rental apartment construction financing plan for Toronto. It was $1.2 billion in financing to build 2600 new homes. It's just north of Young and Eglinton. Those homes are being built right now. I saw them behind me from this fund, but the builders there said to me on Tuesday, they said, this is a great program. It is hard to borrow money in the commercial market. Thanks to this program, we can afford to build rental. We're building rental instead of condos. But you know what they said, Matt? They said the money is running out. They said, We hope this program will continue. I couldn't say to them on Tuesday. Good news, ladies and gentlemen. There's another 15 billion coming in to that fund. But I knew it in my heart and I was really glad because I saw the apartments being built.

MG: And the mayor of Toronto says that it's nowhere near enough and it's not coming anywhere near fast enough. That's that's the issue. And that's the issue with 2025. That's the issue with, again, those Canadians. If you're 30 years old and you think you're never going to be able to afford a home, they don't see this in their lifetime.

CHRYSTIA FREELAND: Matt. There is no one silver bullet on housing. I totally agree with that. And I also think this is something that we need to do today and tomorrow and the day after. And we are totally committed to doing that. And that is what we are doing. We've talked about the 15 billion in additional finance for rental construction. There's $1 billion there for deep for affordable housing, specifically co-ops, something I am very excited about because I lived in a co-op. There is more money there. Something else that I think is really important that will create opportunities for people to have permanent homes to rent right now is cracking down on Airbnb and short term rentals. And that's just what we announced yesterday. That comes on top of our announcement in September, which is totally lifting the GST on purpose built rental. Let me add is getting shovels in the ground right now and then we have the housing accelerator fund. That's $4 billion. We have ten deals across the country and that is cutting red tape. That is allowing higher density across the country, which is going to permit supply, supply supply. And then just a few weeks ago, we added $20 billion to the Canada mortgage bond program that provides more money for builders to build. I am not going to claim there's one single thing that's going to fix this. But what I am going to say to you and everyone who is listening is we get it and we are there supporting people who want to buy home. People who are renewing a mortgage, people who want to rent. And we're just going to keep going.

MG: Being short on time, let me just ask you a couple of other things that don't have anything to do with housing, but perhaps would suggest why people can't afford to put money aside for housing. We have seen your government admitted essentially in Atlantic Canada that the price on carbon is an economic hardship created a carve out for home heating oil. Pier Poly EV has suggested a freeze on the carbon tax to alleviate the pressure that people are feeling right now. Why would you suggest not moving ahead with a freeze? Why is the freeze not in this fall? Economic statement.

CHRYSTIA FREELAND: Matt, I know that, you know, because you and I have talked about this. The price on pollution is revenue neutral. Eight out of ten Canadians get back more money than the price on pollution.

MG: And yet your MPs in Atlantic Canada demanded a carve out so that they would not feel the pressure from their constituents because they knew that they were going to be paying more for heating.

CHRYSTIA FREELAND: That tactually is totally untrue. Home heating oil is a very, very specific case. Home heating oil is the most polluting form of fuel. Home heating oil is predominantly used by people who are lower income and who live in rural areas. We just can't afford to switch to a heat pump.

MG: What is untrue about saying- What's untrue about saying that your MP has asked for a car [unintelligible] though?

CHRYSTIA FREELAND: What we've said is we're going to put a pause on home heating oil, step up the support for people to shift to a heat pump so that we can get all Canadians across the country off home heating oil. That's going to mean that we pollute less. And once you get a heat pump, you spend less every month on your heating. I think that's a win win across the country and it was the right thing to do.

MG: So why not a freeze on the increase in the carbon tax? Naturally.

CHRYSTIA FREELAND: Because the price on pollution is one the most economically efficient way to fight climate change. And I don't know about you, actually, Matt, that's a lie. I do know about you. I know that you know that climate change is real. I know that everyone who listens to your show because basically everyone I know listens to your show knows that climate change is real and we need to act. And the price on pollution, it is the best way to do it. And Canada is recognised around the world for putting in place this effective program. And I really like. I want to cut through the myth and I'm actually surprised to be hearing it from you and on your show. This notion that somehow the price on pollution is not revenue.

MG: That's not what I said. That's that that's not what I said. What I said what I said is that your MPs and we've spoken to them who said that they faced heat from their constituents.

CHRYSTIA FREELAND: Why are we not lifting it? Because people need their lives to be affordable. The price on pollution actually helps. Eight out of ten Canadians with their affordability. Like you, I live in Toronto. I live in Ontario. I am one of the people, like everyone in Ontario, who is getting a check back, refunding me for the price on pollution in my life. And that is happening for everyone in Ontario. Eight out of ten people in Ontario get more money back. That is how the program works and it is really important for all of us. And this is the vast majority of Canadians. So even say all Canadians, I think all Canadians at this point recognise climate change is real. They recognise we need to act. There is no debate among economists about the fact that a price on pollution is the most efficient way, the least costly way to act on it. And I''m glad that our government is doing.

MG: But they're also hurting economically. I guess that's the point of that. There's the last one we have to let you go.

CHRYSTIA FREELAND: But the price on pollution doesn't make people hurt economically more.

MG: I wonder whether, I wonder whether your MP in Atlantic Canada would agree with such a thing.

CHRYSTIA FREELAND: Well, we've just talked about how heating oil is a very specific, separate case.

MG: I do need to let you go. It's a busy morning. I'm sure, in speaking about this. And we are going to follow up in just a moment on the housing issue, but we're always happy to have you on the program. Chrystia Freeland, thank you very much.

CHRYSTIA FREELAND: Great talking to you this morning, Matt.

MG: Chrystia Freeland is the deputy prime minister, the minister of finance. She released the fall economic statement yesterday. Some of that, as you heard, was on housing. This is a top of mind issue in addition to just the broader affordability crisis that many Canadians are facing. Carolyn Whitzman is a housing policy consultant, expert adviser for the Housing Assessment Resource Tools Project at UBC. This is a project that measures the need for housing across this country. Carolyn Whitzman, good morning to you.

CAROLYN WHITZMAN: Good morning.

MG: Matt. What do you make of what was in the announcement yesterday and what you just heard from the finance minister, the deputy prime minister, to address the housing crisis that people are facing right now?

CAROLYN WHITZMAN: Look, there are some things that might be promising in the long term. In the short term, there's no doubt that the fall economic statement was a disappointment for those of us who are concerned about housing, particularly housing for low income Canadians.

MG: What wasn't in it? What would lead you to say that it was a disappointment?

CAROLYN WHITZMAN: Well, there's 15 billion more dollars to a renamed rental construction finance initiative, which is the biggest part of the National Housing Strategy. Only 3% of the homes that have been created by the rental construction - Sorry, we're having a little bit of feedback - by that fund are affordable to the to low income people who represent 80% of those who are in housing need.

MG: And so when you hear the finance minister, she ran down a number of initiatives that the government has as part of the fall economic statement, but also, as she said, things that they're picking up on that have already been announced, things like cutting the HST and tax relief for the GST pardon me, and being followed by the HST tax relief on purpose built rentals, looking at getting back into the area of of co-op housing, for example. What's missing in that?

CAROLYN WHITZMAN: Well, I'll start off with the positive because I like to start off with the positive. I'd say that the Housing Accelerator Fund, which is already well underway, is really exciting. It's important to be able to unlock well-located land for increased apartment development. I'd also say that the there's some promising things in terms of freeing up financing, freeing up federal land. Those are great. They're going to take a long time. What those who are providing housing for people who are at risk of homelessness or who are homeless were looking for was, for instance, a fourth round of the Rapid Housing Initiative, the only program in the National Housing Strategy that actually is meeting the needs of very low income people and people who are homeless. Getting people off the street, that wasn't in the fall economic statement. There was $1 billion as opposed to $15 billion available for non profit housing. And that might take some projects whose viability was threatened because of high interest rates from the red into the black. It might make them more feasible. But again, you look at the difference between 1 billion for government funding, for the housing that people need most, or that the people who are most in need the most. And you compare it with 15 billion. That's I mean, absolutely there needs to be more purpose built rental construction. I'm 100% in favour of that. Change the zoning, get rid of the GST, make housing easier. But let's take a look at the co-op fund which was announced in the 2022 budget, the same time that the Housing Accelerator Fund was announced. Well, the Housing Accelerator Fund is forging ahead, and the fall economic statement just says co-op housing. We're thinking about it, but it should be rolled out right now. Similarly, there's promises repeated around indigenous housing that have been repeated since 2015. Indigenous people need housing now. What are the mechanisms that are going to get projects over the line?

MG: As she said, there is no silver bullet to solving this crisis. One of the things that was announced was eliminating income tax deductions for costs associated with running things like Airbnbs. Is that going to put housing back in the market in the short term?

CAROLYN WHITZMAN: Well, absolutely. Freeing up short term rentals will make a difference. It won't, as you say, it won't make the difference. But there is a great deal in the fall economic statement about protecting mortgage holders. And absolutely, I'm not saying that's a bad thing, but what about protecting tenants from eviction? 6% of tenants report having been evicted between the 2016 census and the 2021 census, and that's only increasing because of rapidly increasing rents, because of lack of low cost supply. So that's really where I would have liked to see the federal government put its money where its mouth is.

MG: We're just about out of time. If you go back to that idea that there are a huge number of Canadians just given up on the idea that they'll ever own a home in this country. What would change that? Is there any way to possibly change that?

CAROLYN WHITZMAN: Well, look, you can put your money in savings. You need to save up for 17 years in Toronto to afford a down payment as a first time homebuyer. You'd need to be saving up for 27 years as an average income homebuyer in Vancouver to become a homeowner. I would say that there are many rich countries richer than Canada, Germany, Austria, Denmark, Switzerland. I could go on where the majority of people are renters and the difference is that it's secure for long term rental that allows people to save in other ways. I'm afraid at this point that the reliance on homeownership as an answer for everyone is a poisoned chalice.

MG: That's an interesting conversation to follow up on. In the meantime, glad to have you here this morning. Thank you.

CAROLYN WHITZMAN: Thank you.

MG: Carolyn Whiitzman is a housing policy consultant, expert advisor for the Housing Assessment Resource Tools Project at UBC. Your CBC News is next. You'll hear the latest on the situation in the Middle East and we'll follow that up coming up in six minutes. Talking about the release of hostages and the role of Qatar in trying to broker a temporary fire. That's coming up on The Current.

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Guests: : Noga Tarnopolsky, Mkhaimar Abusada, Joel Simon

MG: Hello, I'm Matt Galloway and you're listening to The Current.

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I go to hug them kiss them. Probably there will be in hospital the first time to get the check up and everything. But I don't know. I don't know. I didn't think what they got to do and what they're going to say.

MG: Gilad Korngold is among the many people in Israel who've been waiting six weeks for news of their relatives after Hamas stormed into that country on the 7th of October, killing more than 1200 people and taking 240 hostages. Now, Gilad Korngold is hoping his grandchildren and other relatives may be coming home. As you've been hearing, Israel and Hamas have reached a deal that will allow some of the hostages to be freed and see a pause in fighting in Gaza. It came after negotiations between the Israeli government and Hamas, mediated by the government of Qatar. Noga Tarnopolsky is an independent journalist who has been covering Israeli politics for more than two decades. She's in Jerusalem. Noga, hello.

NOGA TARNOPOLSKY: Hello.

MG: What is the mood in Israel today as word of this deal begins to spread?

NOGA TARNOPOLSKY: Well, I'd say it's complicated. I literally, as I'm speaking with you, the list, the names of the hostages to be released has just come out. So Israelis are, I would say this, it's a difficult to discuss stage. You're sort of waiting for people to emerge from what feels like another world. And yet the political situation remains very difficult. The fact that Hamas has announced these names. Hamas has announced when the cease fire will start 10:00 a.m. tomorrow. I think it's very confusing for Israelis.

MG: Well, those hostages, I mean, as the names are starting to come out, is is tomorrow at 10:00 a.m. local time, that's when this temporary truce begins. But also, is that when the hostage exchange will start to unfold?

NOGA TARNOPOLSKY: We were told the hostage exchange will begin tomorrow. It's going to be in drips and drabs. So I don't know, of the list that we've seen, I don't know who will be released tomorrow. I'm not sure anybody knows. What I've heard about the technicalities of the exchange is that Israelis will be released first put into the hands of the Red Cross, and then Israel will release prisoners, Palestinian prisoners held in Israel. But I assume this will start after the truce is in place and there is not active fighting, But we don't have the details.

MG: And as we understand it, it will be 50 hostages, Israeli hostages that are being held by Hamas that will be released.

NOGA TARNOPOLSKY: Yeah, I've heard alternatively 50 or 53. But what is crucial to underscore is that Hamas is saying that it could release more. Remember, Israel has 240 hostages held by Hamas. So what it's saying is that beyond this initial batch of 50 who are supposed to be released over four days, it will ask for an extra day of truce for every ten other hostages released. It's saying that it wants to use this time of the truce to look for more children being held, which obviously you can imagine for Israelis is just like a gut punch. But the fact is that there are legitimate concerns that Hamas will use these days as truth to reorganise and rearm.

MG: There are Palestinian prisoners that are being held by Israel. 150 will be released as part of this exchange. What do we know about that at this point?

NOGA TARNOPOLSKY: Again, I have not yet seen their names, but they are not people who were convicted of murdering Israelis and they're by and large, women and minors. There was, I think, initially a misunderstanding that these were going to be mostly people who had been arrested in the West Bank during the period of this war. I know no longer think that's the case, but they are not going to be released to Gaza. They're going to be released to the West Bank, which is under the rule of the Palestinian Authority.

MG: The Ha'aretz, the Israeli newspaper, was saying that among those coming out would be something like 123 minors and a number of people who are under the age of 14.

NOGA TARNOPOLSKY: Yes, my understanding mostly women and minors and possibly some elderly people.

MG: We've spoken with Israeli families who have been protesting the Israeli government, saying let's focus on on getting the hostages out, that that needs to be the top priority now for the Israeli government. There has been huge criticism of their own government by some of those families. What is the reaction that you're hearing from those families early on in this?

NOGA TARNOPOLSKY: Well, you know, what you're hearing is a sort of heartbreak, right? Because imagine some of these families are getting like part of their relatives back. So the families thus far, the families of hostages, even when they've had disagreements, certainly political disagreements, have been very united. And my sense is that they're still united as a kind of social for some kind of lobby to get their loved ones back in Israel. But some of them are getting their children back. Some of them are getting grandma and grandpa back and some are not. Some are getting one kid back and not another. It's a very, very difficult situation. So it's hard to really transmit how shattered Israelis are right.

MG: Now at this point. The fighting will stop for four days. Is that what we hear?

NOGA TARNOPOLSKY: Yes. And that, I have to say, is really controversial. There is a feeling that the Israeli government and Prime Minister Netanyahu in particular did not get the best deal they could. One of the Hamas requests that has been granted is kind of extraordinary. And it's that Israel will stop using its spy drones over Gaza during this period. And so that's not a military thing. This is not armed drones who could harm someone. This is simply what Israel demanded was the ability to observe that Hamas is not rearming. And Israel gave that up. So that is raising a lot of eyebrows, as is the ability of the Israeli army to be able to protect its troops while this is going on.

MG: There have been just finally increasingly loud calls from many parts around the world for a full cease fire. Is there the sense that this could be the beginning of the end of this war or the end of the beginning of this war?

NOGA TARNOPOLSKY: There's a great fear about that. I would say, if the war ends right now. The meaning is that Hamas remains an active, lethal armed force on Israel's border and that its as an organisation invaded Israel, murdered 1200 citizens, some of them in their beds on a Saturday morning, stole more than 240 people and will survive to do it again.

MG: Noga, we'll leave it there. Thank you very much for this. It's it's a rapidly evolving story. I appreciate the latest.

NOGA TARNOPOLSKY: Thank you.

MG: Noga Tarnopolsky is an independent journalist based in Israel. More than 13,000 Palestinians have been killed in Israel's response to the October 7th attacks. According to Gaza's health ministry, 1.7 million people have been displaced. Mkhaimar Abusada is a professor of political science at Al-Azhar University in Gaza. He's currently in Cairo, Mkhaimar. Hello to you.

MKHAIMAR ABUSASA: Hello to you.

MG: Thank you for being back on the program. What's your reaction to this news of a temporary truce in the fighting and what will be an exchange of those who are being held?

MKHAIMAR ABUSASA: To be honest with you, that is a very big relief for me at the personal level and also for the Palestinians in general. When I say at the personal level, I have a son who is left behind in Gaza, who have who hasn't evacuated yet to Cairo. And I have also many brothers and sisters and siblings who are still there. So that would be a big relief. And also for hundreds of thousands of Palestinians who are in Gaza now have been subjected to a lot of bombing, a lot of destruction over the past 46 days. I don't know whether they can gather their life again for the four days, but still, there are many, many bodies under the rubble that they can be buried there during those four days. There are many wounded people who wants to be transferred from the north of Gaza to the south of Gaza. Many things can be done during those four days. So that is definitely a big relief and very good news.

MG: Tell me about your situation. I mean, you and I spoke very early on in the war and now, as I said, you're in Cairo, but some of your family is still left in Gaza. How did you manage to get out of Gaza?

MKHAIMAR ABUSASA: And luckily, my older two sons are American citizens. And also I have a permanent legal status that the US. So the minute they started evacuating foreigners and Palestinians with dual citizenship, my older two sons were evacuated to Cairo on the 2nd of November. And I evacuated with one of my daughters five days ago on Friday. And yesterday, my wife and my other daughter successfully evacuated also Gaza. But we have one son who is still in Gaza and his name has not been listed and published for evacuation because usually the respective Western embassies and other international embassies, they send the names of the Egyptians and the Israelis who approve them and list or give daily lists of Palestinians with dual citizenship who are eligible for evacuation.

MG: It must have been really hard to leave family behind.

MKHAIMAR ABUSASA: It's a very tragic and sad thing for me, for my wife and my children are very, very sad that we we have one son who we could not evacuate with our son. And I would imagine you could you could imagine how how difficult and how painful is that. But hopefully we are hoping that he will be evacuated in the coming few days.

MG: What was life like? How would you describe what life was like over the last six weeks?

MKHAIMAR ABUSASA: Honestly, I've never seen something like this in my life. I'm 59 years old now. I've never seen I've never heard even of anything like this. This is hell. Honestly, a bombing almost in every corner of the Gaza Strip. We're talking a very small place here, which is Gaza. No more than 170mi² that we're bombing has taken place almost everywhere. Most of it was in the north of Gaza. Luckily, I evacuated to the south of Gaza about five weeks ago as we instructed by the Israeli army to evacuate. But even the south of Gaza did not escape Israeli bombardment. I have to admit that in the last few days before I evacuated to Cairo, meaning a week ago, we had very rough time finding food, finding potable water. Things started to run out from the market. Bread has become a very scarce thing in Gaza over the past week or ten days. Honestly, it's a very disastrous situation, not to mention the destruction, the killing of Palestinian civilians, but also the inability of the Palestinians to find food and potable water because of the inability of the international humanitarian agencies to bring humanitarian assistance to the Palestinians in Gaza. Enough. And although I yesterday stated that they only bring like 30% of what is needed to the more than two million Palestinians in Gaza.

MG: And so perhaps more of that age. Certainly not enough. But but but more of that aid - the belief is when you speak to aid agencies, perhaps could be brought in during this this four or five day truce.

MKHAIMAR ABUSASA: Hopefully so. Let me say that during normal times, around 400, the trucks of food, fuel and other commodities enter the Gaza Strip. And over the past 45 days, around the maximum, I would imagine, like 1300 trucks of humanitarian assistance have allowed into the Gaza Strip. That's very, very little of what is needed. So hopefully then the next four or five days of ceasefire or truce will allow more humanitarian aid to the more than two million people in Gaza.

MG: How much weaker do you think Hamas is, a month and a half into this war?

MKHAIMAR ABUSASA: That is a very good question. I know that the Israelis have been saying from the beginning of this war that the aim of this war is to destroy Hamas and to weaken Hamas. I don't know how much they have succeeded in doing that because to the best of my knowledge and from the footage of Hamas videos that they have been broadcasting on to Jazeera and other TV networks, they are still firing rockets against Israel up until this moment. And second, there is a very fierce and tough fight going on in the areas where the Israeli ground operation has taken place. So I'm not really sure that Hamas has been weakened. Now, maybe it's let me say that Israel has bombed and destroyed many of their military infrastructure and some of the tunnels, some of their rocket factories. But still, they are resilient and they are fighting back. And to the best of my knowledge, 70 Israeli soldiers and officers have been killed over the past few days since the start of the ground operation, which started, I think, on October 30th.

MG: Just finally, do you think that these four days, could they be the beginning of of a longer truce of a of a longer cease fire in this war?

MKHAIMAR ABUSASA: I hope so. And I to be honest with you, I pray that there will be an extension of this four days of ceasefire. But I'm not really sure whether Israel is willing to go for an extension of that ceasefire. But but that that would be very badly needed for both the Palestinians and Israelis because Hamas is not going to release all Israeli hostages and prisoners. And in the meantime, I think Israel has not accomplished the so-called its mission of destroying Hamas. So there's a good possibility that we might see a return of the fight after the four days of of the ceasefire.

MG: McMahon I hope your family is reunited soon. I'm glad you're out safe, and I'm glad to talk to you again. Thank you very much.

MKHAIMAR ABUSASA: It's always my pleasure to talk to you. Thanks very much.

MG: Mkhaimar Abusada is a professor of political science at Al-Azhar University in Gaza. He's currently in Cairo. The deal between Israel and Hamas would not have been possible without the mediating efforts of the small Gulf state of Qatar. Joel Simon is director of the Journalism Protection Initiative at the Craig Newmark Graduate School of Journalism at. City University of New York and the author of We Want to Negotiate the Secret World of Kidnapping, Hostages and Ransom. Joel Simon, hello to you.

JOEL SIMON: Hello. Thanks for having me on.

MG: What role has Qatar been playing in negotiating this temporary pause between Israel and Hamas to release hostages held in Gaza and release some people who are being held by Israel?

JOEL SIMON: Qatar has played an absolutely essential role in this. These negotiations, this deal, this ceasefire agreement would not have been possible without Qatar's mediation effort. Not long after the hostages were abducted and take it back into Gaza on October 7th, Qatari mediators started engaging with Hamas representatives based in Doha, with Israeli, with Israeli political leaders and with the U.S. and other governments as well, to try and create conditions for the release of this hostage, these hostages. And this has been weeks and weeks of work. I've been in touch with our negotiators and others are participating in this effort in Doha, in Qatar. And I know that this has been a difficult and painstaking undertaking.

MG: There was a deal that was brokered on the 25th of October, as you've been writing, that fell through. How is this deal different, do you think?

JOEL SIMON: Well, yeah, as outlined in my I wrote about that for The New Yorker. And as I outlined, there was a deal in place on October 23rd, and that was actually a kind of more informal arrangement. It was pretty similar, though. It called for the release of about 50 civilian hostages. There was no quid pro quo. In other words, there was no guarantee of a cease fire, but there was an expectation of a ceasefire. The Israelis also did not agree at that point to release Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails. And the sticking point actually was that Israel demanded a list of all the hostages who were who would be released. And Hamas said this would take time to assemble. This is according to my sources in Doha and others as well. And the Israelis viewed this as a as a as a stalling tactic, the strategy that would allow them to consolidate their military defences. And the deal the deal basically collapsed. And our it it collapsed on October 25th and within hours of the deal collapsed and Israel began its ground offensive.

MG: The piece that you wrote in The New Yorker is fascinating because it's about the role of Qatar in all of this. How would you describe the relationship between that state and Hamas?

JOEL SIMON: Well, Qatar has for four decades really positioned itself as a kind of neutral force in the Middle East, a place Doha, the capital city, a place where all parties to the various conflicts in the Middle East and more broadly in the region can meet and engage a kind of neutral venue, if you will. So they hosted the Taliban political office. They posted Hamas, Hamas's political representatives, since 2012. They obviously, for example, have a relationship with Iran, which is useful when there are mediation efforts taking place there. And they they've also provided over $1 billion in aid to to Gaza, which is obviously governed by Hamas. So Hamas has benefited from this aid. They say that the political office that was set up in 2012 was done in part at the behest of the United States, which wanted to have the possibility of engaging in dialogue with Hamas and that this was the right venue and mechanism through which to do so.

MG: It's difficult to pretend that you are, as you say, Swiss diplomats in the midst of all of those various relationships. Talk about the complications and the juggling act of of being friends with everybody because Qatar has been accused of playing a double game here.

JOEL SIMON: Yeah, you know, definitely Qatar has been accused of sort of playing both sides of supporting, you know, supporting the very groups. They also hosted a major military U.S. military base in Doha and supporting two very groups that the US was was fighting against.

MG: And accused of financing some of the groups that have been accused of being involved in in hostage taking.

JOEL SIMON: Yeah. And the US has it has investigated that. I talked to a former US official who who mentioned that this was part of an investigation that the US undertook was inconclusive. No, no sanctions were imposed. Qatar has denied these relationships, but there's plenty of evidence that they certainly had communication and provided some sort of support over the year or so. So this has been very complicated. Qatar has maintained that they do this for support, that they have a humanitarian objective. They want to make sure that dialogue is possible and communication is open. But they've also benefited strategically from having these relationships because they're valuable. I would even say in some cases, essential to great powers that are trying to mediate these conflicts. And so for Qatar to be in that position increases their their strategic value and ultimately, in their estimation, their security in a very dangerous.

MG: Part of the world. Are they trusted by all the various sides? Given this is a war that's gone on for six plus weeks now and the tensions are extraordinarily high, the casualties we've talked about. Are they trusted by the various sides?

JOEL SIMON: I would say there is trusted, as anyone can be under the circumstances. Look, I've been writing and engaged with with. People inside and outside government that have been trying to resolve hostage crises for a number of years. And the Qataris have absolutely become the go to mediator, really. And within the region, whether it's, you know, somebody held by Iran or by the Taliban or now in in Gaza, you know, there really isn't another interlocutor that can play this role. And they've been very successful. And the people I've talked to have recognised their contribution. Absolutely.

MG: The trust issue is important because you would wonder what it would mean for Qatar if one side or the other were to back out of this deal or break this deal before even the four days are up.

JOEL SIMON: That's absolutely possible. I mean, I think that, you know, the Qatar is are hoping that the truce will lead both to the release of hostages and to humanitarian aid entering Gaza, which is which is desperately needed, as we just heard. And they and they think that they can contribute to that and perhaps even open up some sort of broader dialogue that would de-escalate the conflict in some way. But there are enormous risks. The logistics are so complicated. Just basic communication. I mean, what what's what the Qataris are talking to the political office of Hamas, which is in Doha. But those political representatives then have to communicate with Hamas military leaders on the ground in Gaza. That's been extraordinarily difficult because communication has been disrupted. So that challenge is enormous. There are other logistical challenge. The Israeli politics are are complicated. As Noga, a reporter I spoke to on the ground in Jerusalem, outline. So this is a very volatile situation. It's a big achievement that the deal is in place, but there's no guarantee that it will It will hold.

MG: Do you think we just have a minute or so left? And given all of that, is there is there the pause and people are wondering what happens next? And is there the possibility that this is the beginning of something more, that it's that it's perhaps getting closer to the cease fire that so many people around the world have been calling for?

JOEL SIMON: I think speaking, you know, with with with a source in in Qatar, I would say that, you know, that's the hope that there is there. This is a kind of opportunity to open some sort of broader dialogue about a longer cease fire. I don't know if that's possible. We heard both of your guests today speak about the dynamics of war. And once those are in place, you know, it's extremely difficult to pull them back.

MG: Joel, really glad to talk to you about this. Thank you very much.

JOEL SIMON: Thank you so much for having me on.

MG: Joel Simon is the author of We Want to Negotiate The Secret World of Kidnapping, Hostages and Ransom. He wrote about the role of Qatar in being an intermediary in this conflict. In The New Yorker magazine. Coming up after your regional update.

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So many women like us are in the exact same position. We're in that late 20s, early 30s. You know, we have good jobs. We're not alone. It's not just an US thing. Not talked about enough.

MG: Canada's birthrate is dropping. What's not talked about are the reasons why in 90s we'll hear from women about why they are opting not to have children, even if they really want to have children. And tell you more about a really difficult decision that people are making coming up. I'm Matt Galloway. You're listening to The Current on CBC Radio and the CBC Listen app. Stay with us.

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Guests: Karen Cornick

MG: Hi, I'm Matt Galloway. You're listening to The Current.

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ASIA: I see parents walking with their little kids and with their strollers. And I'm like, how do you afford that? Like, you know, I don't want to say like, you're so lucky, but I'm just so curious. You know, they look my age. I'm just like, what are you doing?

MG: Asia Ruuhala-Guzman is 29 years old and lives in Vancouver. She wants to have kids but doesn't know how most people can afford to start a family.

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ASIA: It is kind of this like curiosity and this wonder like and it's something that I almost see is like a wow, you know? But it's normal. Having kids and having a family is normal. But like when you're in Vancouver, you're in Toronto. It's like a like a shock almost. It's like how.

MG: It turns out that Asia isn't alone. New research shows that many young adults are delaying parenthood or choosing not to have kids at all because of the cost. And it's not just in big cities like Toronto and Vancouver. The Current's producer, Kate Cornick, looked into these very personal decisions and the long term implications, especially at a time when Canada's fertility rate has sunk to an all time low. She's with me in studio. Kate, good morning.

KATE CORNICK: Good morning, Matt.

MG: Why did you want to look into this?

KATE CORNICK: Well, I'm at the age where a lot of my friends are talking about wanting to have kids. And one thing that always comes up is whether they can afford to. Even when I pitched the story, the producers around my age said in our meeting that it's been the focus of so many of their conversations to whether they can afford to have kids at all or how long they need to delay having kids and what kind of life can they give a kid in the middle of an affordability and housing crisis?

MG: Tell us a bit more about Asia that we heard from at the very beginning. Why does she feel like she can't afford to have children now?

KATE CORNICK: Asia and her partner are both 29. They rent a one bedroom apartment for $2,700 a month. Her partner works in TV production. She works in health care. And together they make around $180,000 a year. Now, I know that might seem like a lot, but it doesn't feel like that to them.

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ASIA: When you crunched the numbers and yes, they do make a good living, but somehow it just seems like it's never like it's just not enough. You know, you obviously want to buy and have the best things and, you know, be the best kind of parents and put money aside for education in the future. All this stuff costs money.

KATE CORNICK: She says that if they had a child, they need to rent a bigger home, likely a two bedroom apartment, costing them between 3500 and 4000 in today's market. And then there's the cost of day-care, food, clothing. The list goes on. And neither of them have family support in the city. Her family is in Ontario and his is in Ireland.

MG: So factoring all that together, is this a forever decision not to have children? Could she change her mind down the road?

KATE CORNICK: As you said, the likelihood of having kids in the future is incredibly slim. Those are her words. She says, realistically, they'd have to move closer to family or to a less expensive city. But even that comes with implications for work. But she's thinking there's no way this will be possible unless something truly life changing happens.

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ASIA: Unrealistic. We win the lottery and we just have all this income and all this money at our disposal to afford a bigger place to afford day-care and all the things. But that's that's probably unlikely, so...

KATE CORNICK: So Asia did tell me if they were to get pregnant that they wouldn't make it work, but it would be really tough. They'd go from feeling comfortable to feeling like they were struggling and having to pinch pennies.

MG: Kids are expensive. He says, from some experience. Do we know how expensive? How much does it cost to raise a child today?

KATE CORNICK: Almost $300,000 per kid. Statistics Canada released a report this September that showed middle income parents with two kids spent an average of $293,000 from birth to the age of 17.

MG: A lot of money.

KATE CORNICK: Yeah, and that's not including the cost of post-secondary education. Stats can also found that 38% of Canadians ages 20 to 29 say they wouldn't be able to afford to have a child in the next three years.

MG: So what do we know, given that? What do we know broadly about how young Canadians feel about having children?

KATE CORNICK: Karen Lawson studies the reproductive decision making. She's the head of the University of Saskatchewan's Department of Psychology and Health Studies. Now, look, I'm about to give you a lot of numbers, but they're important to understand what's going on here. So at the end of 2022, she conducted a national survey of a thousand Canadians and heard from people across the country from the ages of 18 to 35 about their plans around having kids. Of that sample, one third said they do not want to have any children ever. Now, compare that to 20 years ago when it was less than 20%. And this was true for women and men from all regions, from all income and education levels. Now, 25% had decided to wait until they were at least the age of 35, mostly because of the cost.

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KAREN LAWSON: It was clear that they definitely wanted children, but right now wasn't the right time for them. The financial costs and the costs of housing and financial instability. It was a much bigger factor for them than it was for individuals who were deciding not to have children, especially women within this group really relayed the belief that delaying or deferring parenthood would facilitate their ability to achieve financial goals and career stability.

KATE CORNICK: Now, Karen said that for people choosing not to have kids at all, it is a complicated decision, especially for this generation.

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KAREN LAWSON: These individuals had already achieved their educational relationship and housing goals. They were more likely to have already achieved those milestones, which kind of seems a little bit counterintuitive because you'd think that they would be more ready or likely to embark on having children. So it kind of suggests that they've kind of undergone a cost benefit analysis and they've made a conscious decision that parenting isn't for them.

KATE CORNICK: So in other words, costs are higher than ever and the perceived rewards of parenting seem a lot lower to us.

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KAREN LAWSON: One thing that became really clear that I wasn't necessarily expecting is that the costs were not only financial costs, but they're also weighing in the more personal costs that are associated with parenting, especially under the model of more intensive parenting that our society has been moving towards in the past few decades. They were finding ways to find fulfilment elsewhere. They spoke a lot about nurturing their nieces and nephews or their friends children. They talked about ability to travel. They talked about engaging in other leisure activities or things they really enjoyed. And this kind of surprised me a little bit, although maybe it shouldn't have. But a fair number of them spoke about the role of animal companions, especially dogs, in their lives.

KATE CORNICK: I mean, I don't have a dog, but I know people who do and they treat them like a baby. Karen also told me that climate change-

MG: That is another matter, but continue.

KATE CORNICK: Karen also told me that climate change is playing a role in these decisions, that people were worried about the world they'd be bringing kids into. There's a lot of studies that back that up, showing that climate change can be a key factor in the decision to not have kids.

MG: So you spoke with other women about the decisions they're making. What did you hear?

KATE CORNICK: I spoke with Madeline Gilday in Dartmouth, Nova Scotia. She really wants kids, but says it feels like an impossible dream. She's 30. Her partner is 37. They live in a two bedroom rental that costs them $1,500 a month. Now they both work in health care. She's a mental health peer support worker and her partner is a hospital porter Right now between the two of them. They make about $52 an hour. And for them, having kids all comes down to money.

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MADELINE: If we had the money, then we could. I guess we probably would start trying to get pregnant immediately. Yeah, that's. That's really the only thing that's holding back. We're left in this sort of limbo of do we risk it and try to have children now or do we wait and see if the economy gets a little bit better?

KATE CORNICK: It's been really hard for her to come to terms with the fact that they can't afford a child.

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MADELINE: I'm frustrated because I feel as though, like when I was growing up, the whole idea that was put in our heads by our parents and our teachers was, you know, you do well in school, Then you go into university and you graduate, you get a good paying job, you get a house, you get married, you have kids. That was supposed to be the life plan that we were supposed to follow. And I feel like I've tried my absolute best and hit all of those milestones, but not the one that I really wanted to hit, which was to have the children at the end of it. So I feel frustrated by not being able to do more. And I feel a lot of grief for the fact that it really is looking like it'll just be us. To me, the absence of having children in my life makes me feel as though I'm not really living. I'm just sort of existing. Is it possible to have grief for something that you haven't had?

MG: It's interesting. She uses the word grief a couple of times. I mean, that speaks to it. And I've heard people say the same thing. It just speaks to how hard that is.

KATE CORNICK: Yeah, Matt and what I find truly heartbreaking is that Madeline had a miscarriage in her 20s, and that was a time when she was more financially insecure. But now she looks back on that possible pregnancy with almost this deeper sense of loss.

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MADELINE: There's no way I would have been able to support a baby then. So I look at that at least. But, you know, I think I honestly I might have had a better chance of supporting a child in that economy seven years ago than now. It's somewhat ironic.

MG: So do they. She and her partner, do they have any sense of optimism that that their financial situation would change, such that they would be in a better position to have children?

KATE CORNICK: They're working on that. So her partner is currently in school to try to get a higher paying job at the hospital fixing medical machines. And Madeline is hoping that when he's done his course that things will change.

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MADELINE: But we're about four years away from them. So it's really kind of down to the wire. I guess we might be able to swing it at that age, but it'll be what? In his early 40s, I'll be 35 ish and we won't have the money to pay for anything like IVF treatment. So, yeah, it feels like a sort of do it now or we won't be able to do it at all. Or we might be able to get a little bit later.

KATE CORNICK: That risk is something that Madeleine has thought a lot about and it's a consequence of delaying parenthood. Fertility starts to decline for women from about the age of 30, and at 35 it falls even more. By 40, women have about a two in five chance of becoming pregnant, even with interventions like IVF.

MG: And so that's going to be on the minds of a lot of people who we've heard from who are delaying having children.

KATE CORNICK: Yeah, it is. And it means that people who are having kids aren't having as many as they want. And this is called a fertility gap. Here is Karen Lawson again.

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KAREN LAWSON: The biological constraints on female fertility means that delaying also has the potential repercussion of of women are going to have fewer children than they initially wanted. That's because they're trying to have their children within a shorter reproductive window. And of course, the fertility complications that come with age as well. And consistently surveys of Canadians show that the majority of couples desire 2.2 children, that that's the average desired family size for Canadians.

MG: So how does that desire compared to what's actually happening?

KATE CORNICK: Canada's fertility rate hit a record low. It's down to 1.33 kids per woman. Ten years ago, it was 1.63. That's a pretty steep decline in such a short period. Canada is actually close to joining a club it might not want to be in; the lowest low group of countries, those with fertility rates of 1.3 or less. Those are countries like South Korea, Singapore, Spain, Japan. I spoke to Don Kerr. He's a demographer at King's College at Western University. He was really struck by these low numbers and wants more people to pay attention to this.

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DON KERR: I mean, in British Columbia, it's down to 1.1. In places like Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and P.E.I., it's down to 1.2. In fact, in eight of ten provinces, we're at an all time low.

KATE CORNICK: So this really is a cross-country phenomena. And Canada is far below the no migration population replacement level of 2.1 children per woman. That's how many kids need to be born each year to replace the people who are dying. Of course, that's if there is no immigration.

MG: There is immigration. How does immigration factor into this?

KATE CORNICK: Yeah, immigration hit an all time high last year, the same time as we're seeing this record low fertility rate. As of June, Canada's population was at about 40.1 million, up by over 1.2 million from the year previous. So we aren't on the edge of population decline by any means. But Donkor says we can't rely on immigration to be an answer to our sinking fertility because new Canadians often face obstacles around cost, too.

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DON KERR: When immigrants come to Canada, sometimes it's a real challenge to establish themselves economically, right? To get a good job and to buy a home and so on and so forth. As new entrants into the labour force, it often involves a bit of sacrifice. And quite often you'll have young adults coming into Canada and and no, they're not having kids. They're putting it off like other Canadian couples. Right? They're putting it off until economic circumstances improve.

KATE CORNICK: There's also the reality that more immigrants than ever are leaving Canada. Many points to the high cost of living here. A conference Board of Canada report warns that if this trend continues, it could undermine Canada's strategy to use immigration to drive population growth.

MG: I mean, this is obviously taking a personal toll on those who want to have children that they can't afford to do this. But broadly, why does it matter if this country's fertility rate is so low?

KATE CORNICK: Both Karen Lawson and Don Kerr explained that a low fertility rate truly affects us all. Right. An ageing population puts stress on the Canadian economy, on the labour market and on our tax base. So when that worker to retiree ratio tips, you have fewer people paying into things like pension systems and public health care. And we really do rely on the next generation of workers to keep our national programs funded and running.

MG: So is there anything that can or should be done to address the falling fertility rate?

KATE CORNICK: There is an ongoing discussion around whether governments should financially incentivise Canadians to have kids, but historically, tax credits have a short term impact. A number of provinces have recently implemented the federal government's $10 a day day-care program. Although access isn't universal and costs aren't all the way down. But at the moment, it's too soon to say whether affordable child care could make a difference. That said, longer parental leave can be helpful. Here's Don again.

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When women historically have entered in the labour market, they are sort of saddled with this double burden. The second shift whereby they have taken on primary responsibility for childcare and you can understandably see women avoiding maybe marriage or childbearing if that's the reality. Who wants to work around the clock? It's interesting to see that in Europe, places like Iceland where there's a lot of gender equity. The birth rate is quite a bit higher, is up at around 1.8 in Iceland right now. It's interesting to see. So, I mean, if men were more involved in childbearing, I in Canada, for example, I could see perhaps the birth rate rebounding somewhat as a result.

KATE CORNICK: There's also a whole other argument around climate change in population, which we spoke about a little earlier, that fewer people means fewer consumers, which could help the planet. So there isn't a consensus that falling fertility rates are necessarily a bad thing. But Don Kerr says that we need to think about the consequences that are ahead if Canada's fertility rate keeps falling.

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DON KERR: I would expect that into the future we're going to witness more social isolation as a result, as our family networks are smaller and smaller and smaller, and they're not necessarily to help us as we get older. And when you speak of elder care, it's really important. I mean, as it stands now, if you look at many of our long term care centres, they're overstretched, they don't have enough workers and so on. Family is key in providing emotional support and support on the day to day basis when it comes to all sorts of, you know, daily activities, Right. So we don't have that. We have to prepare for an alternative. Can the state replace that? Maybe. But it would be a challenge.

MG: Those are the big picture issues. There is at the heart of this the real personal cost that you highlighted with Asia and with Madeleine.

KATE CORNICK: Yeah, for sure. I've talked to a number of people in the past month about this. There's a lot of sadness and even anger that the cost of having a kid is so high today that the affordability crisis is crushing their dreams of the family they hope to have. But there is one silver lining. There is this community of people who are navigating this together, this realisation that their future might not include kids even if they want them. You know, Asia said something to me at the end of our pretty bleak conversation that's really stayed with me.

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ASIA: So many women like us are in the exact same position. We're in that late 20s, early 30s. You know, we have good jobs, you know, So it's nice to hear from you. And I have conversations with my girlfriends as well. We're not alone. It's not just an us thing. It is nice to hear from you and to talk about it and to raise awareness because it's not talked about enough.

MG: Kate, thank you very much.

KATE CORNICK: Thank you, Matt.

MG: Kate Cornick is a producer here at The Current. This is, as you've heard, a deeply personal issue, but it's clearly not an uncommon one. If you have decided to delay having kids or perhaps not have kids at all because of the cost, we're living through this cost of living crisis. We just spent a bunch of time earlier this morning speaking with the finance minister, the deputy prime minister, about that cost of living crisis. We'd love to hear from you. How are you making those decisions and what is that decision meant for you? You can email us thecurrent@cbc.ca. Or you can record a voice memo on your phone and then send it to us. Email us, thecurrent@cbc.ca.

[Music]

MG: You're listening to The Current on CBC Radio and the CBC Listen app. My name is Matt Galloway. The new president of Argentina has an unlikely biography.

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[Foreign speech]

MG: That is Javier Milei saying that he has been a soccer player, a rock and roll singer and an economist. He's also a former tantric sex coach and a self-described anarcho capitalist. The wild haired libertarian ran a campaign that promised to slash spending, privatise state companies, closed the national bank. And he won decisively this Sunday in a victory that is being welcomed by far right populists around the world. Josefina Salomon is a reporter with The Guardian. She is in Buenos Aires. Josephine, good morning.

JOSEFINA SALOMON: Hi. Good morning.

MG: Thank you for having me. Thank you for being here. Who is have your M.A..

JOSEFINA SALOMON: Well, that's a really interesting question that to be honest, I think many Argentinians are still trying to figure out. I mean, he is these out of this world in a way, character that really emerged into the public scene about five years ago as a political commentator and a really colourful one, may I say. And with his extreme ideas about how to, as you said, slash spending and really change the way that Argentina tackles these historic economic problems. And and then throughout the years, he really turned into this, first, an idea of becoming a politician and these what many people thought was an unlikely situation of him becoming a president to the result on Sunday, which, to be honest, has really generated this mix of emotions between shock, surprise and relief. 55% of the population voted for him. So he obviously has managed very successfully to build a strong support base, very quickly.

MG: Tell me more about this. He has said tax is theft. He says the climate change is a socialist lie. He's been pictured, you know, waving around this chainsaw, saying he wants to take it to public education and public health. But as you said, he won 55% of the vote. Who are the people who supported him?

JOSEFINA SALOMON: Well, the interesting thing about Milei and what has happened, particularly over the last year and over the last few months, I would say even, is that we've seen many versions of Milei.. So you have the early versions of Milei, these crazy. In a way, really loud TV personality with these. Innovative ideas in a way and suggest in complete slashing of public spending and what you're just describing. But then as the months went on, you saw a more tamed down version, particularly during the second presidential debate, where he was saying, well, actually, some of the things that I was proposing maybe I won't do. And now I think and many analysts here in Argentina say that a lot of people voted for him, particularly because they didn't actually that they voted for the politician that they wanted to see. So people put their own expectations into this guy who promised essentially change. And that's what people were eager to hear because the economic situation is so dire.

MG: 140% inflation or something like that in Argentina.

JOSEFINA SALOMON: Yeah, absolutely. And to put it in more plain terms, I mean, 140% inflation, you know, it's really a high number. But just to give your listeners an idea, I mean, you go to the supermarket one week, so you go on a Sunday and you buy, let's say, a kilo of tomatoes and they cost 1,000 pesos, which, you know, in the U.S. and Canadian currency, it's not a lot, but for local people, it's a lot of money. And then you go the following Sunday and you went to 2,000 pesos. So double salaries don't match up inflation. So you basically I understand inflation is an issue. It's a global issue at the moment. But when you live with that kind of inflation, hyperinflation planning is very difficult. Just putting food on the table even for people who have 1 or 2 jobs. So the level of anxiety and stress that Argentinian people are living under is to a level that I haven't seen in many, many years.

MG: And this is something this is something that has a lot to do to the anger that people feel is something that he has been able to mine in some ways.

JOSEFINA SALOMON: Absolutely. And the other interesting thing is the generational vote. So he captured the imagination of young people. So, you know, I'm in my 40s, so I lived this situation back in the 90s where we had liberal governments that implemented the kind of policies that Milei is proposing now. And when they didn't go well, and then we ended up in another crisis. But young people that you know the sixteens to to Argentina people are a lot about from the age of 16 so the 16 to 20 year olds they didn't live that. So they in many ways this part this new politician who spoke to them in plain terms, he doesn't really speak like a politician. He told them he was going to change things. And the young people really like that and they went for that.

MG: So what is just in the last couple of minutes that we have, what what does that mean? But what happens now? You have an economic situation that is, as you've described, really difficult for so many people. You have anger that has coursed through that population that has led to the election of of this political outsider. What does that what does that mean for what happens now?

JOSEFINA SALOMON: Well, that is the million dollar question. I think one of the things that Miller has already realised, and he's taking office on the 10th of December, so in a couple of weeks. But one of the things that he's already realising that a lot of the promises that he made were really good on paper but are going to be really difficult to implement because he needs political buy in from other sectors of government. Congress mainly. So pushing very extreme liberal proposals through isn't going to be an easy task. And on the other hand, you have the Argentinian population who, yes, supported him, but they don't have a lot of leeway in terms of patients. So people, a lot of people on the streets were telling me, you know, the honeymoon is going to be short. If he doesn't make changes fast, if he doesn't find a way to fix the economy quickly, people are likely to go and start protesting again and really demanding the answers and that he really does what he promised he was going to do. This is going to be an interesting few months ahead.

MG: Yeah, I was just to say, just very briefly, I mean, are people feeling optimistic about about the future, given the dire situation that you painted?

JOSEFINA SALOMON: People are tired and people are worried and scared. I think even even people who support many of the military supporters that I spoke to over the last few days, people have a slight dose of hope, which is I guess this is, you know, is an expected thing for people who supported me. But there is a lot of anxiety and and concern among the population because of the economic situation. We'll see what happens.

MG: And the world is watching, in part because people have said he's the Argentinean Trump, for example.

JOSEFINA SALOMON: Definitely. Well, and that's interesting as well, because in a way, it's Milei's triumph during the elections. It's it isn't just a political change. It's a cultural shift for Argentina. So we were all waiting to see where this is going to leave us as a country in the international stage for sure.

MG: I think we'll call you back once things get settled and things start to unfold. In the meantime, it's really been great to speak with you about this this morning. Thank you very much.

JOSEFINA SALOMON: Absolutely. Thank you for having me. Thanks.

MG: Josefina Solomon is a reporter with The Guardian and she was in Buenos Aires. That's the current for this Wednesday. q is up next on CBC Radio One. A reminder if you missed anything on the program, conversation about why people perhaps are delaying having children, the larger conversation about the cost of living that's connected with that decision. Conversation with the finance minister about the cost of living crisis. You can catch up through the CBC Listen app or wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Matt Galloway. Thanks for listening to The Current and we'll talk to you .

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Wednesday November 22, 2023 Full Transcript

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