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The Current Transcript for October 21, 2022

Host: Matt Galloway

STORIES FROM THIS EPISODE

Prologue

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I have spoken to His Majesty the King, to notify him that I am resigning as leader of the Conservative Party. I will remain as Prime Minister until a successor has been chosen.

MATT GALLOWAY: As the wheels began to fall off. Liz Truss, his short reign as British Prime Minister. A tabloid paper asked who would last longer truss or an unrefrigerated head of iceberg lettuce. Yesterday the lettuce one truss was on her way out of the top job in an hour. What's next for the UK Conservative Party, in a country rocked by a political and economic meltdown and could the former prime minister, Boris Johnson, make a triumphant return? Also this morning, the next U.N. climate conference is set for Egypt in November. Coming up, why activists say holding the summit there simply gives cover to that country for its poor record on human rights and the environment. And why climate campaigners need to speak up. And later, her paintings once traded for grilled cheese sandwiches. No longer.

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I've told my kids that they can sell pretty well anything after I die, but they can't sell the art. That's not why I bought it and I don't want it just turned into money.

MG: The Nova Scotia artist Maud Lewis is having a moment. Her paintings are selling for thousands of dollars in 30 minutes, the resurgence of a folk art icon and the tricky business of telling fake paintings from the real thing. We start, though, with a stark warning from the finance minister about turbulence ahead in the Canadian economy. Buckle up. Good morning. I'm Matt Galloway and this is The Current.

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Canadians warned to brace for economic slowdown

Guests: Dominique Lapointe, Rosemary Barton

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There are still some difficult days ahead for Canada's economy and for the economies of all of our friends and allies around the world. To say otherwise would be misleading. Anyone who claims they could prevent the challenges ahead is just wrong.

MG: That's Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland saying what many had feared. Canada's economy is headed for a downturn.

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Our economy will slow as the central bank continues to step in to tackle inflation. There will be people whose mortgage payments will rise. Business will no longer be booming. Our unemployment rate will no longer be at its record low. That's going to be the case in Canada. That will be the case in the United States. And that will be the case in economies big and small around the world.

MG: Canadians are bracing themselves for what the next months and years will be like financially as prices continue to rise. And those stable jobs seem a bit more precarious. For more on what to expect, I'm joined by Dominique Lapointe, strategist with Manulife Investment Management in Montreal. Good morning.

DOMINIQUE LAPOINTE: Good morning.

MG: How would you say our economy is doing right now?

DOMINIQUE LAPOINTE: As we speak, the Canadian economy is still in very good shape. The labour market is really tight. There are a lot of job openings out there. If you switch jobs, you're likely to get a pay bump. Businesses are still reporting higher level of sales relative to what they've had a year ago. So what is concerning to us, what lies ahead? And that is the resulting impact of inflation and indirectly higher interest rates.

MG: What are the signs? I mean, you heard Chrystia Freeland there, you know, plugging in the warning sign, kind of letting people know that this is coming. What are the signs that you see that our economy is going to get worse sooner rather than later?

DOMINIQUE LAPOINTE: So Canada is not alone. And when we're broadening our look, interest rates are rising globally. And what we're seeing is businesses that are tied to the international economy that rely on export, they're going to face reduced orders. And that's been already the case in a survey that has been published by the Bank of Canada this week. At the same time, many Canadian homeowners maybe are going to feel that the equity they've built in their home lost a little bit of value because we're seeing now home prices declining. At the same time, many, many Canadians have seen the value of their investment in their savings accounts are being reduced this year because the returns in financial markets have not been great. So they're going to start cutting back on spending. There want to be more precautious about the outlook, but in turn, this will affect services and all the cyclical industries. So maybe you're not going to go out to the restaurants saying what you did, maybe not going to travel, and all those cyclical industries will start to see reduced business and they're going to start cutting hours. And then we see it's going the cycle of the economy will turn backwards.

MG: And so what should Canadians be doing now to protect themselves against what's coming? You heard Chrystia Freeland there talk about mortgages, that people's mortgages are going to go up because interest rates are rising. What is it that we should be thinking about now to insulate ourselves from what's on the way?

DOMINIQUE LAPOINTE: The problem is that it is difficult to very insulate yourself from these big macroeconomic movements the same way we had the conversation about inflation. When we're asked, What can you do about inflation? It's difficult to avoid it. That being said, it's probably one of the few recessions that would have been called ahead in some meaningful way. It's not going to come to us the same way as the 2829 financial crisis did, or let alone the COVID 19 pandemic in March 2020. So planning ahead, making sure to prioritise spending on where it will be needed next year. We're talking about next year, year. And if you're in a in a business that is more cyclical, then maybe see what are the best options for you? Right now, it's up to your employer. And it's not it's not the message. It's not is not to panic here, but just to to take some measures now to to know what's coming.

MG: If people are carrying debt, for example, I mean, what should they be looking at? Is it, you know, try to pay down credit card debt or a line of credit or something like that? Are those things, while, as you say, the economy is in decent shape right now that we should be focussing on for when things get rocky?

DOMINIQUE LAPOINTE: Though what we did notice is that during the pandemic, a larger share of Canadian households are facing a large amount of debt and interest rates are really, really low and now they're rising. For those households that now are going to face higher payments, it's going to be hard. But again, not all are the same. I think mortgages usually get in, really want to keep their. The last thing they want to do is not be on their home, knock on their car. So so I think what the news will do and look at discretionary spending and see where I can reallocate some of the resources. Similarly, the same concerns we have about inflation. Is there a way to reshuffle what sort of goods we're buying in order to just save the saving the aggregates and allocate more toward interest payments that unfortunately are going to go up for most households?

MG: What is your expectation when it comes to interest rates? You expect them to continue to climb?

DOMINIQUE LAPOINTE: So it all depends on what's happening with inflation. The Bank of Canada has been very clear that they're going to keep raising interest rates until they see inflation go down. Not not forecasting inflation go down, but actually the data print. So what we're thinking is, if you start with political history, a lot of the inflation we're seeing now remains due to global factors. So I'm convinced if we had an army crawling or if there had been no war in Ukraine, we wouldn't see the same sort of inflation we're seeing now. But those things should unwind starting next year at the same time as the economy will be weakening. So we could get that that downward trend in inflation in the first part of 2023. And that's at that moment that they've got that was probably stopped. So in terms of actually interest rates, where we think they're going to start right now. The overnight freeze at 3.25% probably going to go up by a big amount again next week. But we at the moment, we envision that the peak of that rate hike cycle would be around 4.25% in January 2023.

MG: Does the bank need to keep raising interest rates aggressively to cool inflation?

DOMINIQUE LAPOINTE: And that's a difficult question. I think that they're concerned about the message and they really want to emphasise that their focus is inflation. They're worried that people start to think that they're going to need an 8% wage growth every year just to offset inflation. And in certain businesses will also raise their prices by 8% for the next five years. And you see where it's going. It's a never ending cycle. Their message is very, very stable. That extending our opinion, as I've said. Global factors are still at play and there's a risk that they might overdo. It is to continue doing instead of point 25% every meeting they do point 75% in the meeting. So our maybe the optimal approach would be to go a little more gradual and still raising. It's more gradual and then see and then see how the economy reacts down the road.

MG: You mentioned the housing market. How concerned are you about that? We have seen those sky high prices dropping somewhat, but we know that there are a number of people who bought when prices were high. You're now having interest rates going up. People might be on variable mortgage rates and wondering whether they're going to be able to to to cover the spread when those rates continue to rise. How concerned are you about that housing market?

DOMINIQUE LAPOINTE: I would say it's a growing concern in a sense that for people that have locked in a five year fixed rate below 2% right now, they're still paying very, very low interest on their mortgage. People have variable mortgage rates. We've seen for some of them, they'll have to be a bit more, but it's still a marginal reset. So we're going to keep getting increasingly concerned as 23 goes on if interest rates don't go down. And again, I'm tying it back to inflation. If inflation doesn't go down, the Bank of Canada leaves interest rates at these very elevated level. And then you'll see a bigger share of homeowners having to refinance at 5%. Then it's a big income shock. Like on your monthly payments, you're close to $21000 a month. So that's a big income shop. And then you'll see a heightened risk of a bigger economic downturn, people facing higher risk. So I would say at the moment, situation seems to show we've seen prices falling, but they're falling from such high levels. It's expected. It's really the longer it continues this way, the more we're going to get concerned.

MG: I guess just finally and briefly, we're almost out of time, but there are people who aren't looking down the road. They're looking at what's happening right now. Groceries are the price of groceries keep going up. The price of gas is expensive. People are just, there are many people who are just struggling to get by. How much worse is it going to be getting for those who are right on the precipice at this moment without a recession already here?

DOMINIQUE LAPOINTE: It's difficult because on top of that, you're only starting to see the effect of past interest rate increases on types of goods that are sensitive to that. But we would argue that the bulk of inflation now in there. So in terms if you look at goods, the durable goods prices, car prices, appliances, materials, those things will eventually roll over. And the reason is that merchants that have bought a lot of these things because demand was strong and now demand is not there. And at some point they'll have to cut prices going to be for Black Friday is going to be for Christmas. It's not clear, but inventories are too high. And so, in our opinion, if you do those types of good will, I mean, that will ease a little bit of the pressure in terms of the rest of the inflation. Well, we're also noticing that for people that are changing jobs, people are also asking for higher wage growth. So that would provide somewhat of an offset. Well, yeah, overall, we think that most of the inflation has already been there, so we don't think it's going to get that bad. Just talking about inflation, let alone the recession.

MG: Dominic, thank you very much for this.

DOMINIQUE LAPOINTE: Thank you.

MG: Dominique Laponte is a strategist with Manulife Investment Management. He was in Montreal. There will no doubt be political ramifications from these economic woes. The CBC's chief political correspondent Rosemary Barton joins me now. Rosie, good morning.

ROSEMARY BARTON: Hi, Matt.

MG: Why would Chrystia Freeland make these comments about the economy and what's coming down the road now?

ROSEMARY BARTON: I mean, she's sort of the bad cop for the government, unfortunately, when it comes for unfortunately for her, when it comes to this messaging. Things are getting harder. It's getting harder to avoid reality. Harder for her to deny. Canadians are seeing it every day. You're talking about inflation with the economists there. Well, food inflation is still over 11% and that's where people are really feeling it. So I think the government needed to start laying the groundwork, as you so aptly said earlier. Plug in that warning light and start getting Canadians prepared for some difficult days. The IMF, the International Monetary Fund, has said the worst is yet to come globally. I did talk to the chief economist yesterday who said that Canada is still not terrible, but 2023 is going to be difficult, at very least a slow down. And I would also note that the previous governor of the Bank of Canada, Mark Carney, said yesterday at a Senate hearing that he believes Canada is headed towards a recession. So this is about starting to get people's minds focussed on the fact that beyond inflation and what has been a difficult period for many Canadians, it's actually going to get worse.

MG: What about the political fallout here again, to your point? Rising food costs are an immediate concern and people are struggling and may look for, you know, a party or someone to blame.

ROSEMARY BARTON: Yeah. And usually it's the government and usually part of that is fair. What the government is encountering here is that there is a global issue around inflation. And I think for many, many months last spring and through the summer, Chrystia Freeland and her colleagues tried to reflect that and tried to remind people this was a global issue. The problem is, is that when you can't afford meats at the grocery store or when your cereal suddenly costs too much, you don't really care that it's happening around the world. And I think that's where the politics becomes difficult. I mean, you will still hear Chrystia Freeland talking about the fact that the fundamentals are strong in the Canadian economy and that that is true. Canada's net debt to GDP ratio, which is how this government likes to look at things, is still the lowest amongst the G7. So that is significant. Employment is still high. But but things are moving in the wrong direction generally. And so you heard the deputy prime minister talk about uncertainty. And I think you also saw that. And you are seeing actually seeing the government readjust its focus. There was a lot of talk about Ukraine over the past four or five months and less talk about inflation. And now any liberal that you talk to will say that the focus has to be on the economy now and they need to start better. Empathising with what Canadians are going through.

MG: Are the days of big spending over because in past when they're I mean, recent past through the pandemic, when there have been turbulent times, the government has helped bail people out and offered through spending programmes some assistance. Are those days over and done with?

ROSEMARY BARTON: They're over for now, definitely. And the finance minister was very clear about that this week. She said that we can't support every single Canadian. Remember, this is a government that doesn't have any problem spending. They spent close to $300 billion during the pandemic. Certainly the official opposition believes that that was too much. But but they didn't have any problem supporting the whole economy. And every Canadian through that pandemic, they are now heading into a space that is kind of uncharted territory for them, frankly, where they are going to have to not only rein in spending, but they're going to have to look for ways to to potentially cut, but also to to find savings within departments. You saw that Toronto Star story this week probably that said, listen, if you want new programmes in your departments, cabinet ministers, you find the spending there yourself because there's not going to be new money for you is what the finance minister had.

MG: So what does that mean then, for the big plans that are already in place? Billions of dollars have been promised to Canadians and to the NDP, which is helping keep this government in power for things like dental care, pharmacare, day-care. What happens to those plans?

ROSEMARY BARTON: Those things will still still go ahead. The things that are happening are going to continue. But if you're looking for big new spending programmes now and the reason those things are going to continue is for this government, they believe that those are the things that are going to continue to stimulate the economy and support the most vulnerable of vulnerable people. For instance, there are two increases to keep the pension plan and employment insurance that naturally happen in January tax increases or premium increases, if you want to be more neutral about it. And those those increases are going ahead, even though they may hurt some. Canadians. And even though the conservatives say that they should be frozen, those increases will go ahead because the government believes that those that they need to be funded and that that all needs to continue. So I don't think you're going to see the government backing away from current programme. But you are going to see that the programmes will slow down. I would just make one caveat though. There is a group of the most vulnerable of Canadians who, for instance, got their GST tax credit doubled just this past week or will see it doubled. The Government I think has a reserve, an idea that if things are really bleak, some Canadians will get some additional support. What they don't want to do is help Canadians through a downturn or a recession and then contribute to inflationary pressures, which is what they're kind of juggling.

MG: You mentioned the Federal Opposition and probably of the new leader has focussed the laser beam on the Liberals for what he says is the party's lousy fiscal management and some of those things that you just mentioned. But when it comes to perhaps the CPP increase as well. Here is what people have had to say about the possible recession on the way.

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Unfortunately, the Prime Minister is proposing to do exactly nothing for the vast majority of struggling families who will get nothing, and even those small minority who do, we'll find it gobbled up by increased inflation. He wants to triple the tax on food. Canadians are paying enough to put food on the table. Will the prime minister let up and get off their backs.

MG: In the last minute that we have? What do the conservatives want the government to do?

ROSEMARY BARTON: Well, I mean, the food tax that he's talking about is not a food tax. It's actually the carbon tax, which is slated to be increased significantly in April. Of course, there is a rebate with that. But the conservatives believe that this is the wrong time to increase the carbon tax so drastically. I mean, they want the government to not do all these little increases through the next six months that will begin to tighten things for for Canadians, I think. I think what pure politics has done very effectively since he became leader and even before is tap into mounting frustration, anger and concern that Canadians have. And he's trying to give voice to that and that that has been effective for him. And I think that is part of the reason the government is responding in the way that it is. Whether he has all the solutions, I think is another story, but he certainly is trying to get the government to do more and to do something. And the government's struggle, of course, is you can't respond to this slowdown the way you would a typical recession by spending billions of dollars, because, frankly, we've already done that and we don't have a whole lot left.

MG: Rosie, thank you very much.

ROSEMARY BARTON: Thanks, Matt.

MG: Rosemary Barton, CBC's chief political correspondent, the host of Rosemary Barton Live. We'll be talking next week about the rising cost of food. We'd love to hear from you what you're seeing when you shop and how this has changed, perhaps what you're purchasing, what you put on the table. Are there things that you aren't buying or are you having to make different choices when it comes to the food that you're purchasing because of the increase that we're all seeing? Email us thecurrent@cbc.ca. That's thecurrent@cbc.ca. You're CBC News is next. And then to Nova Scotia and the resurgence of a folk artist, the story of Maud Lewis and her paintings. That's coming up in 6 minutes. I'm Matt Galloway. This is The Current. Stay with us.

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Fakers cashing in on popularity of Maud Lewis paintings

Guest: Mary-Catherine McIntosh

MG: Good morning. I'm Matt Galloway. You're listening to The Current.

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MG: Still to come, after only a short time in office, a really short time, Liz Truss is out. What happened to the UK's shortest serving prime minister? But first, the wealth model Lewis never saw from her art.

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Now, of course, the moment that we've all been waiting for this is the mod Lewis Black truck painting 90,000 I have on the phone 90,000.

MG: Maud Lewis is having a moment. She is one of Canada's most beloved folk artists. And now, 52 years after her death, there has been an explosion of interest in her Nova Scotia art. Last spring, a painting once traded for a grilled cheese sandwich went to market. That story charmed many people around the world, including a very determined buyer who had never actually heard of Maud Lewis until then.

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Is on the telephone at 190,000. Yes. He says yes. And 240,000. It is the black truck and it's Maud Lewis. Yes. He says, yes at 250. We have a $350,000 surprise. He has upped his own increment to 350,000 folks. This is an exciting moment in Canadian history. Wow. Very.

MG: Very exciting indeed. And a whole lot more than a grilled cheese sandwich, certainly. Now, with art collectors around the world taking more notice of Maud Lewis, his paintings, the art of distinguishing real paintings from fakes is becoming even more important. Our producer, Mary-Catherine McIntosh, has been taking a closer look at the rise in value of Maud Lewis's paintings. Mary-Catherine, good morning.

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: Good morning.

MG: For people who may not instantly get a picture in their heads of a Maud Lewis painting, just describe what they look like.

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: The best word that I've heard to describe them is exuberant. They're really joyful. They're mostly beautifully coloured scenes from rural Nova Scotia. So things like fishing boats and wagons and tulips and butterflies and apple blossoms.

MG: And cats.

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: And pussycats and puppies. People really love her animal paintings. Listeners might get a picture in their head of three black cats lined up with these huge eyes.

MG: I'm just looking at the painting right now. For people, again, they want to hear, see what we're talking about. They can go to our website. We've posted up some photos on the website if they actually want to see the cat paintings and some of the other paintings of hers.

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: They're really adorable. But I'm really not the only one who thinks that.

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So here's a cute little painting. Isn't that a cute little painting? It's a little puppy dog. And just absolutely gorgeous, isn't it? It's adorable painting.

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: For this story, I visited the home of the biggest Maud Lewis collector in the world who's here in Nova Scotia. Billionaire John Risley first made his fortune in seafood.

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As a Christmas card. He did with that with a pen and ink. Okay. She sold those for $0.10 and now they sell for several thousand dollars.

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: And guess how many Mauds he has?

MG: Well, he's a billionaire, so we figure he has a few. How many does he have?

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: He has about 300.

MG: Wow.

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: He has art stacked two, three deep on the floor along his dining room walls. And lots of his paintings are still in there. Brown paper and for mods he has them hanging all the way up his curved staircase.

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I've been walking by a whole collection of Maud Lewis's paintings, sort of makes going up and down stairs fun. And if you come down in the morning, it's sort of like you spend. And when you go to bed at night, it sort of stimulates the imagination.

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: So when Mod was alive, she sold her paintings to tourists and locals from her little house on the side of the road outside of Digby.

MG: Tell us about who she was. Who was Maud Lewis?

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: Yeah. So she lived in that little house. It was really almost a shack with her husband, and she had severe arthritis, so even holding a paintbrush was challenging. So to an outside eye, she had a very hard life, but she painted her house and nearly everything in it with flowers and butterflies. She even painted the bread box and the dustpan, and she made paintings on things that she could find, like fibreboard and scallop shells. And she used for paints, leftover house and boat paint.

MG: And it's amazing when you think now we just heard that auction of how much those paintings are worth.

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: John Risley's Dad once bought a painting from Modd for $2.50.

MG: Bit like that grilled cheese sandwich trading story.

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: And also, John even owns the sign that used to hang outside of Maud's house that says Paintings for Sale. People who love mad love this sign. And John really loves these things.

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Speaker 4: A horse and a carriage and a doggie behind the horse and carriage going down the road. And you can see that she's depicted here. What are obviously evergreen trees, but they've got things like apple blossoms on them. Right. But and you said, well, that's kind of weird, but that's okay because look what it does to the painting. She didn't let realism get in the way. Right. It was always about imagination and colour and try to make the painting come alive and making it dance in your mind. And so that's great. You don't you don't look at it and you say, Oh, well, you know what a stupid mistake that was? It wasn't a mistake. Right. It was what she wanted to do.

MG: So John Risley clearly enjoys the paintings that he has of Martin Lewis. And there are other people who love their paintings as well. But what's going on here? Why is she having a moment?

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: Well, there was the movie, Maudy, about her life, and that certainly drew a lot of people to her work and helped people learn about her.

MG: That was a few years ago, though, right?

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: Yeah, it was released six years ago. So why now? I asked everyone that I spoke to and really the best answer that I could get is simply that interest in her work is spreading beyond Canada to collectors all over the world. For instance, earlier this year there was an exhibition in London that she was featured in with Picasso and Andy Warhol.

MG: And so we heard the auction. How much is the price for her work increasing? What's what's what's the, you know, the scale in terms of that increase?

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: Well, one of the collectors that I spoke with told me that the seller of that famous black truck painting that just sold for 350,000 had approached him about five years ago asking for 40,000. And at the time, he thought it was way too much.

MG: That's wild. I mean, really telling that you think of an increase like that, what, seven fold in five years.

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: And everyone that I spoke with thinks that the expensive painting is thought to be sort of like a one off because the story of the trade at grilled cheese got so much attention. But earlier this month, a mob painting sold for $85,000, which is way more than you'd expect it to get just two years ago.

MG: And so are people now rummaging through the house trying to cash in on the value of the paintings that they own.

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: Well, here's another interesting thing about her paintings. There are tons of them. Like there might be 10,000 paintings. No one knows for sure. There might even be hundreds of those cat paintings alone. So if you think about that, then there really aren't a lot for sale because some people don't want to part with them.

MG: Who is buying and selling the Maud Lewis paintings right now?

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: I met a buyer who wished that more people were buying and selling the paintings right now. His name's Chad Brown. He lives here in Nova Scotia. And I went to a gallery with him as he was getting his latest purchase framed and ready for sale. And while were there, the owner of the gallery took out these two cat paintings that were not for sale. They were just there for cleaning. And these paintings were in a drawer.

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CHAD BROWN: A pussycat doll with a white board.

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: On a work table that was covered with papers and paintings and even two real cats. And there they were, these two paintings unframed on boards with tattered edges.

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CHAD BROWN: Well, this one has been painted on beaver board. And see, this one has been painted on Masonite.

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: How much would these be worth?

CHAD BROWN: Probably 40,000 to 50,000. You know.

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: You're thinking more.

CHAD BROWN: I guess, and maybe. Well, I think I would. I'd probably sell them for at least 60.

MG: $60,000.

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: 60 K. And the man that you hear in that clip who's saying that that he'd want to sell them for that. That's Chad Brown. And it's interesting, as the gallery owners talking about the paintings there, I can see Chad getting totally fidgety because he really wishes that these paintings were for sale.

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CHAD BROWN: You're breaking my knuckles now because I mean, I wish that, you know, maybe there would be a little bit more of a proactive approach to when somebody comes in to say, well, are you interested in selling it?

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: So Chad is the first person to say that what he's doing is controversial to some people because he's essentially flipping models.

MG: So he buys them and then sells them right away.

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: Yeah. So it's really no different than anyone in a gallery who's trying to sell paintings, but he's out on his own.

SOUNDCLIP

CHAD BROWN: I mean, when I got my first original, it was a beautiful original, too. It was a summer scene with oxen and two laps. It was so unrealistic to be able to afford an original Martin Lewis. And then I thought, you know, just for giggles, I'm just going to post it and see what I could make off of it. And to my surprise, it had sold like the very next day. To this day, I've purchased over, I think, 55 originals.

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: And here's a crazy thing. He only started doing this three years ago.

MG: And again, just to be clear, he's he's flipped more than 55 of these pretty expensive paintings.

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: So he's this guy who used to manage a tavern and now he's buying and selling Mauds all over some internationally. He's flying out to buy lots of these paintings and using cash, sometimes carrying $40,000 in his carry on. Here he is again talking about that first painting.

SOUNDCLIP

CHAD BROWN: And this is going to sound so hypocritical, but I loved it so much that I regretted selling it. And as the market continued up, I reached out to the person who I sold it to and I begged her and I begged her and begged her. She would not sell it. The only way she would give it back to me is if I traded her for a different model of his painting. So I did. Plus cash. I wanted it back so badly. I had so much regret because it was my first one that was beautiful. And what? That I do. When I got it, I resold it again.

MG: As you mentioned, the market is really hot. And we mentioned this in the introduction as well, that there is now in a hot market concern around fake Mod Lewis paintings becoming more prevalent and you need to be able to tell what's real and what's fake. How does he know with his $40,000 in his carryon that he's buying the real thing?

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: Well, for one thing, he flies to get them in person. But the biggest Maud Lewis experts in the world are here in Nova Scotia, and he relies a lot on them.

SOUNDCLIP

Right. My name's Allan Deacon. I suppose you call me an expert in the work of Maud Lewis. Sometimes people have referred to me at an auction. Look over there is the Maud Lewis man.

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: So Al Deacon, or the Maud Lewis man, told me this wonderful story about when he bought his first painting when he came here as a new teacher, just arrived from the UK and he went out on a Sunday ride to Mod House with his buddies in a Camaro and his friends took one look at what she had to offer and they were totally bored. But Al saw something special and he went back weeks later in his station wagon and he bought one from Maud while it was still wet.

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I remember showing it to a colleague of mine, took one look at it and he said, That's rubbish. He said it'll never be worth anything.

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: And he's been collecting and studying mods ever since.

MG: And so how does he know the Mod Lewis man? How does he know if these paintings are real or not?

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: Well, places like Sotheby's have forensic experts that use technology to test art. But Ali Khan's totally old school, he uses his eyes and a magnifying glass.

MG: And what is he looking for?

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: He wouldn't tell me. Some fakes are good and some are not so good. But we've heard lots of stories of people who've had mods for years, only to get them tested and to find out that they're not actually real. And in researching this story, I got a tip that the mods hanging in our Premier's office are suspicious.

MG: That sounds like a thing that the paintings in the Premier's office might be fake.

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: I'm not actually sure if they're still on the wall there, but earlier this fall I got a text from someone who said that they were suspicious. And it turns out these paintings belong to Arts Nova Scotia, which is a provincial government agency, and they were on loan to the premier.

MG: So did you find out whether they're real or not?

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: No. I called Arts Nova Scotia and told them about my tip and asked if I could come and see the paintings and bring an expert with me. And I was denied. I did, however, show two experts photographs of the paintings, and they both said really quickly. These look suspicious. But again, like we'd have to see them in person to know for sure if they are real or not. And the head of arts, Nova Scotia, said to me that they would be authenticating the paintings this fall, but on their own.

MG: One could imagine that this could be potentially rather disappointing for arts in Nova Scotia.

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: Yeah, I mean, they're so expensive to replace now, likely more than their entire annual art budget just to replace one of them. And fakes can happen. Earlier this year, a reputable auction in Canada had a fake.

MG: Oh, wow. So, I mean, it speaks to how common the fakes might actually be.

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: Yeah, well, that gallery that I went to with Chad Brown earlier in the story, the owner there, his name is Ian Myung Castro, and he's another Maud expert. And he figures about a third of the paintings are fake.

MG: A third? How would he know that?

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: A lot come through his gallery and he says that they're actually getting better. The fakes are actually getting better. He told me that one had recently come through his gallery for authentication and it was so good that he thought it was real. But in the end it was not the painting itself that gave him doubts, but the dirt on it. The dirt didn't look right. The dirt didn't look old.

MG: What are you talking about? The dirt didn't look old.

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: Well, this is another thing that really struck me as interesting about Maud paintings, because people didn't originally pay much for them. They often didn't pay to have them framed, so they nailed them right on to the nursery or even outhouse wall. So they're often dirty and often damaged, and lots of the paintings still have those nail holes.

MG: So the gallery owner thinks, again, going back to the old or new dirt on the paintings, that the fakes that he's seeing are recently made fakes.

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: Yeah, I mean, it makes a lot of sense, right, that as Maud becomes more valuable, that she'll get the attention of forgers, too. And amongst caster things, those new fakes that he's seen actually come from Eastern Europe. Hmm. But Matt Lewis has been faked since she died 50 years ago.

MG: Even at a point. Before this surge in interest when when the paintings weren't worth a lot.

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: The first known faker of Maud was her own husband, Everett. And a lot has been said about Everett that he was cruel or that he was a total creep. And there are stories about how tourists would come to her house after Mod died to buy paintings, and that Everett would tell them that she was simply away.

MG: And her own husband again was faking her work.

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: Yeah. And I'm told, though, that his paintings of hers are not very good. But there is another interesting character that comes up over and over when we're talking about Mod Lewis Fakes, and that's a man named Fred Trask. He's a folk artist who knew Maud and Everett and whose own work is admired by many paintings which often feature Maud Lewis in them, and his paintings can sell for a grand. But he's long been accused of being a mod forger as well, and people told me that he would be very hard to find, that they didn't know where he was, or maybe that he wasn't even alive.

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MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: Is that you, Fred?

FRED TRASK: This is me.

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: But he is.

MG: And you found him?

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: I found him. He lives here in Dartmouth and he's 76.

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FRED TRASK: You have finally got the story that nobody has ever heard before. You've got to really to today, right now. This story is the first time anybody's heard this, by the way. Here we are in 2022. I've had a pacemaker and I put in another I put in a better tell the story. If we're not, I'm not the figure by this. Did I collect Maud Lewis? Yes.

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: So Fred and I went to the basement of a folk art gallery in northern Halifax, and we sat just across from a couple of his paintings on an antique sofa and chair set. And right across from us was a huge one of his of Maud Lewis painting.

MG: So just to be clear, you meet this guy who people don't know whether he's alive or dead. He's accused of being a Maud Lewis forger. And you sit in front of a painting of her painting.

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: We sat there. Yes, exactly as you described. And our conversation was very interesting. He says he never faked Mauds, but he saw lots of other people doing it. And I want to just play for you part of our conversation.

MG: Yes, please.

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FRED TRASK: Finally, I guess it's time to take the blanket off of a hit and just say what's really going on is the neighbour who was taken with Everett. Everett was faking Maud.

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: But one of the things that I have heard from people who say, Oh, I know who's been forging these paintings since you, since the beginning that you do it. You're not only the most prolific.

FRED TRASK: I'm glad they give me that credit, but I just want to be good as a folk artist, not a faker of Maud Lewis.

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: For Maud paintings, I can also see how easy it would be to fake them. You'd have the right stuff. You--

FRED TRASK: I'm sure I could do a good Maud Lewis.

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: But you never have.

FRED TRASK: No. There are people that say I have. Maybe it's one I bought that was already fake that I sold. I will admit, maybe I did run into one that was faked already that people have decided that is a fake. Oh, no. I mean, if I was to fake somebody, it'd be Van Gogh or I mean, excuse me, the [unintelligible]. Actually, I probably I, I'd probably do a nude by Picasso if I was going to do a fake.

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: You've painted a picture for me today that everyone was doing it.

FRED TRASK: The woman that lived that past much was doing it. And so as such, the barber told me and he said, Fred, he said, That woman lives [unintelligible] is doing Mauds and selling them. Nobody has gotten this story before. Nobody will get it again.

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: But you're not saying anything. You're not telling me that you did it. So what's the world exclusive?

FRED TRASK: Oh, no, but I mean, the information I'm giving you on who was to buy Lewis fakes. I don't think buy those. There's no need to be fake for me to fake a Maud Lewis. I have been charged with any crime ever. You know, another big money. If I was going to fake now, that'd be the time to fake it. And I'm not.

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: So, Fred Trask's final words to me. I didn't do it.

MG: Whoo! Boy, there's a lot in there. If somebody is lucky enough to have what they think is Maud Lewis, They think it's a real Maud Lewis How are they actually, to be sure that this is a real painting?

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: One thing that I was told again and again was how the stories of how someone got the painting are so important and that they'll become more so in authenticating this art. Like, people love the grilled cheese story, but lots of mad owners have wonderful stories about how they got theirs directly from Maud.

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: Like rolling up in the station wagon and putting the what? Painting in the back?

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: Yeah. To lots of people, these paintings could never be sold. And just for fun here, I'm going to give the last word to John Risley, the collector we heard from earlier, the billionaire who has 300 mods. So before I play the clip, I want to say obvious. He's not against business investments.

SOUNDCLIP

I've told my kids that they can sell pretty well anything after I die, but they can't sell the art. If they want to sell, it's going to a museum. So. I don't want the value measured in financial terms. I don't want it just turned into money.

MG: Mary-Catherine, this is quite a story. Thank you very much.

MARY-CATHERINE MCINTOSH: Thanks, Matt.

MG: Mary-Catherine McIntosh is a producer for The Current. In Halifax. There is an exhibition of Maud Lewis, his work on display at the Art Gallery of Greater Victoria through the end of the month. It's a travelling exhibition organised by the McMichael Canadian Art Collection and many of the paintings in said exhibition belong to the collector John Risley, who we just heard from. In 1965 the CBC produced a documentary about Maud Lewis, thought to be one of the very few recordings of the artist. Back then, her paintings were going for a whopping five bucks.

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MAUD LEWIS: Prices gone up some. I used to charge four and a half, but I've gone up $0.50, $5. Now brushes and paint cost a lot, you see. Boards and or colours with you all wound up. So I went up in the price. $5. Some dont want to play that much. Another don't mind at all.

REPORTER: But if someone insisted she take $10, would she take it?

MAUD LEWIS: Oh, yes.

VOICE 1: She doesn't associate with other artists at all. She apparently feels this need to express herself along certain lines, and therefore there's no point in her contacting artists to find her. How do you do this? How do you do that? She knows how to do it.

MAUD LEWIS: When you see many paintings from other artists, you know, so I don't know. Why didn't it paint all the memory? I don't copy much just because I don't go nowhere. You know, this could be anything, and I just have to make my own designs up.

VOICE 2: What she really wants out of life is a trailer. That's all. Well, it had a little more room to put the paints and stuff, paint the people's way, you know, like have a trailer and they cost too much for a trailer. They couldn't afford that.

MG: The late artist Mod Lewis. Well, coming up after your regional update. After only 45 days, Liz Truss has stepped down as Prime Minister. What this means for the United Kingdom country facing difficult days ahead. Plus, this year's U.N. climate conference is in Egypt and activists say that country's government is trying to greenwash its checkered past. That's all coming up in 90 seconds. My name is Matt Galloway and this is The Current. Stick around.

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Egypt’s human rights record in spotlight ahead of COP27; and political chaos in the U.K.

Guests: Nick Pearce, Mohammed Rafi Arefin

MG: Hello again. I'm Matt Galloway. You're listening to The Current. Next month, thousands of politicians, academics, journalists and environmentalists will descend on Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt for COP 27, the next United Nations summit on climate change. The decision to hold the summit there has angered both human rights and environmental activists, who say the event is an attempt to greenwash the dismal record of the Egyptian government. Mohammed Rafi Arefin is an assistant professor of geography at the University of British Columbia. He has researched urban environmental politics in the Middle East and North America and worked for more than a decade in Egypt. Mohammed, good morning.

MOHAMMED RAFI AREFIN: Good morning. Thank you so much for having me.

MG: Thanks for being here. What do you make of these allegations that COP 27 is, as I say, a way for Egypt to greenwash or paper over its record when it comes to the environment, but also to paper over its record on human rights.

MOHAMMED RAFI AREFIN: Well, I think it's first really important to understand what Egypt's human rights record is. I'm not sure that it's so widely known. And if it is, it's ignored or wilfully forgotten, even when it comes to environmental issues or social or political issues that might stir any kind of dissent. The current government, the Sisi government, has resorted to all different kinds of mass repression, arrests and imprisonments, intimidation, international travel bans. I mean, the estimates are that since 2013, there's been over 60,000 political prisoners put behind bars. Egypt's most prominent political prisoner, Abdel Fattah, has been on hunger strike now for over 200 days. He's been in and out of prison for the last decade. And and it's really the most recent sentence because of his social media posts. And so in relation to COP 27. The issue here is that the local activists, the people who keep these talks accountable or have more kind of just visions for environmental futures are really behind bars.

MG: So in the face of that, how do you understand the decision to hold COP 27 in Egypt in the first place?

MOHAMMED RAFI AREFIN: Yeah, I think it's a complicated question, Matt, and there are really a few different possibilities. I mean, this has been talked about in international media as the African cop and really a focus on loss and damages and forms of climate finance. And these discussions, I mean, I really believe this should be held and hosted by countries in the Global South who have emitted the least amount of emissions often, but are already or like are really primed to suffer the worst consequences of climate change. But but really, to be frank, the government is unfit to represent Egypt's environmental interests and is certainly not fit to represent the continent. So how did this happen? I mean, the current government is really kept afloat through massive amounts of military and financial aid from places like the United States and from its regional neighbours. Egypt is keen and eager to host this, really to guide these discussions on unlocking international climate finance. And it's kept up a public image of a stable nation through the help of things like American PR firms. So, I mean, that's all to say. The decision to host in Egypt is in was misguided. But now that the cop is there and will be hosted there, it's really necessary for international delegates to raise the plight and the issue of political prisoners and political repression.

MG: I want to ask you more about that in a moment. Just this is not happening to some. It's not happening in Cairo. It's happening in Sharm el Sheikh. What do you make of that and that decision, too, to locate it there?

MOHAMMED RAFI AREFIN: That's correct. Yeah. And I think it's really important for your listeners to understand the geography here as as that professor of geography, Sharm el Sheikh, is. That is an international tourist destination, a beach town that's on the Sinai Peninsula. It's about a six hour drive from Egypt's capital. You know, 4 to 500 kilometres. And the issue here, that's really not the time to get there. You know, you can get in a car, you can get in a plane. But if you were to travel, let's say, by car from Cairo to Sharm el-Sheikh, you'd have to go through numerous police and military checkpoints. So, in effect, if there is a local environmental group, activists or even a set of concerned citizens who want to show up and the state doesn't want them to be there for whatever reason, it's very likely that they can stop them from going. So, in effect, holding this car, far from where Egyptians really experience the climate crisis closes down, in my view, the real possibility of local public dissent.

MG: This is something that Sky News in the UK asked Egypt's Environment Minister Yasmine Fouad about that idea of of local involvement, because that happens at every cop summit. There are local activists and people who are involved in the movement who are able to have their voice heard and raise those local concerns. Take a listen to what the environment minister said.

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REPORTER: A crucial part of these COP talks is the participation of civil society and the right to protest. Many observers are concerned that those rights are severely curtailed in Egypt. Are they right to be concerned?

YASMINE FOUAD: Why would they say that if a country has already adopted a national strategy for human rights? We have our own law that passed over to the Parliament on the civil society participation. We have announced 2022 as a year for civil society. How can a country take all those bold steps at the legal level and at the institutional level would not do so. It could be very contradicting that there's enough answer for that.

REPORTER: Well, human rights groups say that some 65,000 political prisoners are being held in Egypt. These are the human rights infringements that they point to and that they say suggest that Egyptian civil society will not be able to participate in COP 27.

YASMINE FOUAD: Egyptian civil society will not be able to participate? No. Civil society that that's concerned with the climate changes and Environmental Global Challenge will be participating in the COP 27.

REPORTER: So we can look forward to free protests across the board wherever people are from, including Egyptian society. We will have our own discussion with the COP 26 with the Secretariat. What is the process that we always take in different COPs and that will be taking place in the COP 27.

MG: What do you make of her response that there could be protests, but that civil society will be involved?

MOHAMMED RAFI AREFIN: Matt. I think that Minister Fouad says it in her own words in the rhetorical question, this could be quite a contradiction. And I think a lot of activists and international commentators would say it is a contradiction. I mean, the important thing to note here is that the state, the Egyptian state is allowing some space for certain environmental issues and activists and rallying cries to take place. But it's the ones that don't stir too much dissent. So we're talking about things like waste management, sanitation, transport and mobility, but any kinds of like environmental harms or issues that include hot button issues like government owned industries are repressed very quickly. So issues like the expansion of coal power plants or new natural gas extraction, nuclear energy pollution from government owned factories such as cement factories, sea level rise in cities like Alexandria. I mean, all of these issues and anything really to do with water or real estate, tourism and agribusiness, many of these issues are forcibly repressed.

MG: You said you said and you said in the absence of those issues being raised that Egypt's environmental harms happened in the dark.

MOHAMMED RAFI AREFIN: I think that's correct. I think that's correct. And this is backed up by recent research by the Human Rights Watch, who have released a report that says and documents the systematic and continued repression and harassment of environmental researchers, journalist and activist. So the minister says one thing. The recent Human Rights Rights Watch report says something very, very different about public knowledge and awareness of the country's environmental issues.

MG: You spoke earlier about those who have been imprisoned in Egypt, and there are critics, Naomi Klein amongst them, who wrote a piece saying that in some ways the Green Movement has abandoned those activists in Egypt. Do you think that's fair?

MOHAMMED RAFI AREFIN: I think it is a fair assessment. And really the family members are the ones closest to many of these political prisoners have certainly expressed anger with big green orgs around the lack of attention to the plight of political prisoners in Egypt. But I do believe in the last few weeks there has been movement in multiple arenas and public media from some groups to raise some awareness around this issue. And I think people are starting to understand some of the consequences of not just having COP in Egypt, but letting it go off without a hitch, without raising the alarms about the situation in Egypt.

MG: So what would you want people to do? I mean, the first question is should people and organisations be attending? Because what you will hear is speaking with people at past COPs that this is a way to get environmental concerns and the climate crisis on the international radar in terms of the media, but also a way to network and organise and meet other people who are fighting similar fights elsewhere in the world. Should people be going to Sharm el Sheikh?

MOHAMMED RAFI AREFIN: I think it's a great question and I've always thought about it in terms of a careful calculation, right, where you calculate your emissions from travel, the enormous expense of staying in these resort hotels for two weeks and really time lost away from your local struggles, you know, in your home countries. But really, Egyptian human rights organisations have not gone so far to say let's boycott this COP. And I think it's a strategic goal. It's it's an argument that if those most critical of Egypt's human rights record and its governments international delegates in talking about do not go and do not raise the plight of political prisoners. There's a real chance that this cop will go off without a hitch and let in some kind of social legitimacy or international legitimacy to this this regime.

MG: Is it realistic to expect that people who are travelling to Egypt for COP raise those issues? Given how you have characterised the Egyptian government?

MOHAMMED RAFI AREFIN: This is a hard question. And I would say it's a case by case, an individual, again, calculation.

MG: But you've been you you understand the concerns that people might have, that if they speak up, they themselves could be the subject of undue attention and worse from the government and from government forces.

MOHAMMED RAFI AREFIN: I do. I do understand that. And there is certain protections that an international passport will provide you. But those are also limits that we know from the last few years in the country. At the same time, I'm really concerned that we're leaving Egyptian activists, Egyptian citizens suffering from the climate crisis as kind of our our sacrifice in the climate movement that, if we're unable to raise these concerns.

MG: And so the meeting will go ahead. That summit will go ahead. What would you want in the best case scenario to come out of it?

MOHAMMED RAFI AREFIN: In terms of my hopes, I always have some naive hope that some good climate agreement will emerge, especially around the issues of loss and damages. But really, truly what I'm hoping is that this event will, on an international stage, raise the alarms about mass repression in Egypt, because it's a clear case that any just environmental transition or an equitable plan for managing the impacts of climate change are not separate from political freedoms around the world. So, you know, and just to end, I'll say I really hope that the world's attention doesn't leave Egypt once the COP concludes, because at the end of November, when this is all over, if there are local public shows of dissent, much of the repression will happen after international delegates go home and those who really dare to speak out will suffer reprisal from the state and the security service.

MG: After people have left the luxury hotels that they've been in for the last couple of weeks.

MOHAMMED RAFI AREFIN: Exactly.

MG: Mohammed, good to talk to you. Thank you very much for this.

MOHAMMED RAFI AREFIN: Thanks so much.

MG: Mohammed Rafi Arefin is an assistant professor of geography at the University of British Columbia.

[Music]

MG: You're listening to The Current on CBC Radio. My name is Matt Galloway. It was quite a week for the British Prime Minister, Liz Truss. Here's Monday.

SOUNDCLIP

I will lead the Conservatives into the next general election.

MG: And then came Wednesday.

SOUNDCLIP

I am a fighter, a not a quitter.

[Cheers]

MG: Well, by Thursday, things had taken a real turn.

SOUNDCLIP

Given the situation, I cannot deliver the mandate on which I was elected by the Conservative Party.

MG: That is a new record in the UK. A Prime Minister stepping down after only 45 days in office. It comes after Truss had been forced to reverse course on a whole slate of economic policies and after unprecedented infighting within the Conservative Party itself. Here is how some British voters responded to the news that she was calling it quits.

SOUNDCLIP

VOICE 1: It's just a cycle of rubbish and they replaced. Rubbish with more rubbish. None of them are fit for the job. So yeah, I think we need a general election.

VOICE 2: In this country, we have an unelected head of state now. We have an unelected government. That's not democracy, is it?

VOICE 3: I've got mixed feelings, really. I think she's been hounded out and she's not the first one. I think that's what the media do, really.

VOICE 4: The fact is, Liz Truss, I think she's made so many mistakes and so many U-turns. I think we need somebody who's strong in politics. You can take this country by the scruff of the neck and get it sorted out. So basically that's where we're down.

MG: Nick Pearce is a professor of public policy, director of the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Bath. He's in London this morning. Nick, hello.

NICK PEARCE: Good morning to you.

MG: The Internet had a field day yesterday. In talking about how long Liz Truss had been in office, one of the commentators said the Chilean miners spent more time underground than she had spent as British prime minister. How would you describe the week that you have seen in British politics?

NICK PEARCE: Well, it's been one hell of a spectacle. I mean, we've had a period of of of real chaos in British government and in the last week in particular. I mean, events were just tripping over themselves. It was very hard to to keep up. In the end, as your introductory package there showed, you know, she couldn't hang on any longer, it just become untenable and she had to resign. The shortest term of office of any British prime minister. And as your report from Britain showed, the British public are, you know, despairing of the current situation, despairing of the politics, particularly in the context of real economic turbulence, rising energy prices, the war in Ukraine. I mean, this is not a time in which people feel at all comfortable having politics in such disarray.

MG: What was the last straw, do you think? Because there was chaos, it seemed almost from the moment that she became British prime minister on Wednesday, allegations of physical altercations inside the house of parliament, people resigning and then on resigning. What was it that finally forced her out the door?

NICK PEARCE: Well, the destruction of her economic package — the huge U-turns she had to make on that — drained away all of her authority, really. People were talking about the new chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, who she appointed as being the person in charge of British government. And that meant that in the course of the week, when other political issues came along, the home secretary resigned. And then there was a debate, an acrimonious debate on fracking in the House of Commons on Wednesday night. The Prime Minister simply lacked the authority to establish a proper government. She simply couldn't guide her MPs or her executive, her cabinet, through each day. And on top of that, she lacked the leadership, the communication skills, all the sorts of things you need to retain credibility. And so it simply became impossible for the Conservative backbenchers and others to think she could carry on.

MG: How divided is the party now?

NICK PEARCE: Well, it's very divided and it has been for some time. It's been divided by Brexit in particular. Brexit has divided British politics. It's caused all sorts of ructions in British politics. The aftershocks of it are still with us, and it's divided the Conservative Party. And in recent years, the Eurosceptic Brexit voting conservative right has been in ascendancy. They were the ones that brought down the former prime minister, Theresa May. They secured the election of Boris Johnson and they secured Liz Truss as his replacement. And they're able to do that because the membership of the Conservative Party, which numbers in the tens of thousands, it's a very small membership, is a right wing membership. It's relatively elderly right wing voters in the Conservative Party and they have managed to use that base of support in the membership to leverage their relatively insecure position in Parliament. They're not dominant amongst Conservative MPs, but that has meant they've been able to get their way. And so the Conservative Party is very fractured and and in particular by the kind of conflicts that have followed Brexit and more recently, as I say, this sort of turn to the right.

MG: Which leads to a real conundrum when you're trying to figure out who the next leader is going to be, the next leader will be chosen within seven days. And so there is talk that perhaps in the casting around for that next leader, that the former leader, Boris Johnson, could come riding back into the picture. How possible is that?

NICK PEARCE: Well, I mean, it would be scarcely credible, I think, for an outside observer to think it could possibly happen.I mean, a matter of months since he was forced from office, mired in scandal and sleaze, very unpopular. Now, in their desperation, Conservative MPs seem to be canvassing his return. And Johnson himself, of course, is never one not to wish to be in the spotlight or not to be considered as a candidate. And so is stoking that discussion. There are lots of MPs who have come out declaring their support for him. So it's possible, it's possible that we might on Monday see him seeking to return to office.

MG: Is that in part because he won that massive majority? And people say that he is an extraordinary campaigner. Sleaze aside, as you say, that when he goes out on the hustings that he in past, it very least has been able to rustle up the vote.

NICK PEARCE: Yeah, I mean, the circumstances in 2019 were fairly exceptional. He was up against an unpopular Labour leader, in a parliament that had ceased to function. And so, you know, there is some discussion and dispute amongst political scientists as to whether he's really such an effective campaigner. But clearly Conservative MPs, a large number of them, think that he is. And they are trailing desperately in the polls at the moment. I mean, a huge gap between the Conservatives and the Labour party now. And so some of them clearly think, yes, he's the only chance we've got. They're putting their partisan interest first again, in thinking let's get a leader back that might at least claw back the ground with Labour. And some of them are arguing that, you know, you don't need to have another general election, even though you're changing prime minister again, because he had secured that mandate back in 2019.

MG: You can imagine that, as you mentioned, Labour and other political entities are keeping a close eye on what's going on. Take a listen to what the Labour leader Keir Starmer and the First Minister of Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon, have had to say about what's going on right now. I really don't think that another revolving door of chaos, another experiment at the top of the Tory Party is the way out of this.

SOUNDCLIP

What needs to happen now, well, on a U.K. level, there must be a general election. It Is a democratic necessity. The idea that the Tories can unite behind a prime minister now, any prime minister, let alone one that is in the public interest, I think is for the birds.

MG: What kind of pressure is there on the Conservative Party to call a general election?

NICK PEARCE: Well, there is a lot of public pressure, but in the British parliamentary system, the party that commands majority in the House of Commons can decide when to have elections. We don't any longer have a fixed term parliament, and to bring down a government or to force an election requires a vote of no confidence. And at the moment, the Conservatives have nearly a majority of 80, and so it's very unlikely that there will be a general election called. None of them want a general election at the moment because they would be likely to lose their seats. So in a system like ours, which has no written constitution, which has no mechanisms for change in these kinds of circumstances, it is all down to Conservative members of Parliament.

MG: You yourself have worked as a policy adviser in Downing Street.

NICK PEARCE: Yes, I have. Yes.

MG: And so you would know, I mean, as chaos like this unfolds, is the business of government actually being done?

NICK PEARCE: Well, it's very true that in circumstances of kind of constant crisis, it's very hard to get on with the business of governing. And at the present time, of course, the Prime Minister, Liz Truss is still in office until next week. So nothing is being done out of number ten as we speak in terms of governing the country properly. Of course, the Treasury and the Chancellor are getting on with preparing the fiscal package, which they have to announce at the end of the month. So that business of government is ongoing. But if you do look at the UK in recent years, and particularly as we've come out of the COVID pandemic, many things are not functioning, they're not working well. Our health service, our schools, our immigration system, policing in lots of areas, the basic infrastructure of government and public services is not functioning well at all. And that's partly because of austerity and cuts, but it's also partly because of a failure of governance, a failure of leadership, and a failure of the business of government being conducted properly.

MG: And so just finally and briefly, I mean, I was in London just a couple of weeks ago and talked to people about how they that that anxiety that they feel because, as you say, the instruments of government, the health system and what have you are not working. People have real concerns about the future of the country. How how do you think that is addressed by the instability that we're seeing right now at the highest levels of government?

NICK PEARCE: Well, it isn't addressed. And I think, you know, public anxiety is very high. And, you know, there is a lot of despair, frankly, around the country. And people are, you know, about to head into winter with rising energy bills, with high inflation. Their wages aren't keeping up, real wages are being cut. There's all sorts of instability in Europe because of the war in Ukraine. So there's a great deal of public concern. And of course, you know, Conservative MPs weighing up who to choose as their next leader will obviously be thinking about that to a degree. I would imagine that Rishi Sunak, for example, one of the lead contenders, will make his pitch one of competence and stability. It's very hard to see how Boris Johnson makes a similar pitch, but that will be something that factors in people's minds. Ultimately, of course, it will require a general election, I think, to get us back on to some kind of more stable footing. But there are big problems in British society. Our economy hasn't grown since the financial crisis. One of the big problems has been that we're stagnating economy that's producing distributional conflicts. It's producing other concerns in between parts of the country, for example. And our politics has been severely undermined and torn apart really in many ways by Brexit. So putting lots of these things back together, trying to re-establish British political economy on a more stable footing, a progressive footing is going to be very, very hard.

MG: Nick Pearce, good to speak with you. Thank you very much.

NICK PEARCE: Thank you.

MG: Nick Pearce is a professor of public policy, director of the Institute for Policy Research at the University of Bath and a former Downing Street policy adviser. That is The Current for this Friday and for this week. QS Up next on CBC Radio One, the great pop singer Carly Rae Jepsen in conversation with Tom Power. That begins in just a moment. We're speaking about the turbulence in the UK. And as Nick said, it's a real thing. There is a real sense of discontent and anxiety in England right now, often in those sorts of moments that will be reflected in the in the immediate moments, but perhaps in the years to come through the art that people create in those difficult moments. And so in the spirit of that, we will leave you with some great music from another not so steady time for that country. Here's The Clash in London's Burning. I'm Matt Galloway. Thanks for listening to The Current. Have a great weekend.

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Friday October 21, 2022 Full Transcript

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