As Canada prepares to vote, what can be learned from N.L's pandemic election?
CBC News | Posted: August 23, 2021 8:30 AM | Last Updated: August 23, 2021
Emphasis on mail-in ballots could delay results slightly, says Kelly Blidook
Canada is preparing to go into its first COVID-19 federal election this September, but it won't be Newfoundland and Labrador's first rodeo.
The province held its own election largely by mail this winter, after a COVID-19 outbreak closed polling stations across the province on the eve of a scheduled Feb. 13 vote.
The pandemic delayed results by six additional weeks, thanks to mutiple deadline extensions.
Results were finally released March 27, after every ballot was counted.
According to data from Elections Canada, about 250,000 mail-in ballots were cast in the 2019 federal election. Now, amid the COVID-19 pandemic, that number is estimated to balloon to five million.
WATCH | Dr. Janice Fitzgerald put all of Newfoundland and Labrador into lockdown on Feb. 12, the night before a planned election:
Kelly Blidook, a political scientist at Memorial University in St. John's, said he believes the increase will bring similar delays in the revelation of a winner, though he hopes the process will be cleaner than it was in Newfoundland and Labrador.
"We probably won't see anything like we did in Newfoundland and Labrador — God hope we do not see something like we saw in Newfoundland and Labrador," Blidook said in an interview.
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Blidook sees mail-in voting as a sensible choice, particularly with uncertainty over where the fourth wave of the pandemic might lead.
"Lots of people are doing it. I would encourage people to do it too. Who knows what will happen — COVID is still a little unpredictable," he said.
"Why not just be prepared to vote by mail rather than wait and see if something blows up, as happened in Newfoundland and Labrador?"
With an emphasis on mail-in ballots, Blidook said it could carry over into the campaigns of politicians looking to lock up votes.
He hopes a smoother approach at Elections Canada will also calm any uncertainties around the voting system seen during the 2020 election in the United States.
"I don't think we want to see people claiming that the election was somehow invalid because they got the results the next day or the day after. People should be prepared for that," he said.
When asked about the timing of a pandemic election, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has said the election has to be called now as big decisions like finances and a mandatory vaccination mandate need to be made against COVID-19.
While Blidook said he believes the timing of the election is poor, he said he can understand Trudeau's decision.
"I don't like the term 'power grab' because it's an election. People are voting. The idea that somehow it's a power grab and it's undemocratic is a bit of a problem," he said.
"[But] we all have completely different ideas now, we might actually have different expectations. So there is a logic to what the prime minister is saying.… I don't think he's completely out to lunch by saying there are important things for us to be thinking about."
Does the minority-majority trend continue?
Trudeau clearly hopes that he can gain a majority government, something that has happened at the provincial level throughout the pandemic.
The jump from a minority to majority government has been made in three provinces: British Columbia, New Brunswick, and Newfoundland and Labrador.
On the other hand, just last week in Nova Scotia, voters showed the governing Liberals the door and elected the Progressive Conservatives and premier-designate Tim Houston.
While Blidook said that result signifies a firm change in that province, it shouldn't be an indicator of the federal race.
There are also different factors to watch in Newfoundland and Labrador, including a potential Muskrat Falls deal and rising electricity costs.
"[Provincial Liberals] want this to sort of be an endorsement as well of what they're doing, because they've linked themselves so closely to this federal Liberal government," Blidook said.
"I'm sure that we will actually have agreements that will work out for us down the road, whether or not there's a Conservative or an NDP or a Liberal federal government. But I can see why there is this sort of sense that we've already kind of gotten into bed with a particular party.… I wouldn't put too much weight on that."