London is headed for the red zone, data shows
CBC News | Posted: March 29, 2021 3:50 PM | Last Updated: March 29, 2021
The incident rate for Middlesex-London meets the threshold for further restrictions
After four weeks in the orange-restrict level of Ontario's COVID-19 response framework, the region is poised to revert back to the red-control zone, with added restrictions.
Local case counts have been ticking upward slowly in March, with an explosion of new infections reported in the last week. Out of 780 COVID-19 cases in Middlesex-London so far in March, there were 339 in the last week.
The decision about which colour zone a public health unit is in isn't made locally but rather by the province, based on indicators and thresholds. For London to move to the red zone, the weekly incident rate has to exceed 40 cases per 100,000 people and a positivity rate of 2.5 per cent or more.
According to data from the Middlesex London Health Unit (MLHU), the region's incident rate rose to 40 on Saturday, with a positivity rate of 5.9 per cent for cases tested over the last week.
The number of known active cases in the region has more than doubled in the last week as well, to 434.
"The reality is, and this seems to be the longstanding truth for COVID, is that the more people and the more time that we spend with other people, the higher the probability of of transmission events like we're seeing happening," said Dr. Alex Summers, the associate medical officer of health for the MLHU.
"The other variable that may be playing a part in all of this, of course, is the impact of the variants."
Since the health unit started reporting the number of variants of concern in the region on March 4, there have been six confirmed to have originated from the U.K., along with 132 additional cases screened.
Province to consider additional factors in restriction levels
Other considerations are the local health system capacity and public health system capacity for case management.
London Health Sciences Centre (LHSC) is reporting 16 patients with COVID-19 in local hospitals, including five or fewer in intensive care. There are also five or fewer staff who have tested positive for the virus.
As of March 25, critical care occupancy at University Hospital was at 90 per cent and 64.5 per cent at Victoria Hospital.
Health officials also consider outbreaks in the community in determining what level of restrictions to place on a health jurisdiction. There are currently three outbreaks at seniors' facilities, one outbreak at an elementary school, two outbreaks at child care centres and three outbreaks at residences at Western University.
What does going to red mean?
There have been a few changes to the framework since Middlesex-London was last in the red zone.
Here are the highlights:
- Social gatherings limited to five people indoors, 25 people outdoors.
- Religious services (including weddings and funerals) limited to 30 per cent capacity indoors, with a maximum of 100 people outdoors.
- Restaurants limited 50 per cent capacity, or 50 patrons seated for indoor dining, with members of the same household only and space either two meters apart or separated by a barrier. Patrons must answer screening questions when they arrive. No dancing, singing or live performances are permitted and night clubs can only operate as restaurants or bars with last call at 9 p.m. All must close at 10 p.m.
- Sports and fitness facilities are limited to 10 people in classes and 10 people in areas with weights and exercise equipment.
- Personal care services limited to procedures where patrons are masked for the procedure. Steam rooms, saunas and whirlpools must close.
- Movie theatres and performing arts facilities will be closed unless being used for a rehearsal or performing a recorded or broadcast performance.
- Full details can be found on the Ontario website.
More information and a decision on what zone Middlesex-London will be in is expected to be announced in the coming days.