As COVID-19 case numbers have started to drop in Newfoundland and Labrador, many are wondering if this is the break the province has been waiting for.

Health Minister John Haggie said Tuesday this province is roughly two weeks behind the rest of Canada in terms of spread, and it's too early to know if we've hit the downswing.

"There are criteria in Europe that say four weeks without a case. There are some that say less than that," he said. "We will cross that bridge when we come to it and we will use the most up to date public health guidance at that point."

As for when public health restrictions will be lifted, Haggie said it's still too early to expect that as well.

"My department is certainly in discussion with other departments on how that should take place. But those discussions are in background and planning. It is really premature to even think about that just at the moment," he said.

The province is still looking ahead to a surge which is forecast to affect the population by the fall.

And with the Easter holiday weekend drawing to a close on Monday, it's not known how well the public actually complied with physical distancing rules. Haggie said it could take anywhere between a week and 12 days before we know, after the incubation period of the highly contagious virus.

"We need to see what the effects of the Easter vacation period have done to our figures. And only then we'll be in a better position to make any sort of estimate about any kind of return to any kind of normal," Haggie said.

Many of the government's daily COVID-19 updates since the pandemic began have included warnings of complacency.

On Monday, Haggie said regardless of the current caseload and smaller daily increases in new cases, the public cannot relax its physical distancing efforts, which have been working to slow the spread of COVID-19.

"The virus is here, it's out there and this is why our mantra has been around physical distancing. It's happened in other jurisdictions. It's no reason to believe it's any different here," he said.

"But the facts of the case are we need to rely on social distancing. The only way the virus reproduces is if it spreads, and the only way it spreads is if we move."