The American portion of the Red River Valley is on course for a spring flood equal to or worse than the one that swamped the North Dakota-Minnesota border in 2019, the U.S. National Weather Service predicts in its spring outlook.

Record precipitation, near-record winter water flows, high soil moisture and a deep snowpack have all conspired to create "a threat for significant snowmelt flooding that could meet or exceed the level of flooding seen in 2019," the National Weather Service said in an outlook released late last week.

Last spring was one of the 10 worst spring floods along the U.S. portion of the Red River. A major flood predicted for the Manitoba portion of the Red fizzled thanks to ideal weather conditions last spring.

This season, conditions are in place for a worse event — potentially in the top five. Those conditions include a record combination of rain and snow since the beginning of September, National Weather Service hydrologist Amanda Lee said.

"We've already met our snowfall totals for the entire winter season and we haven't reached February yet. So that's not a good sign," Lee said Monday in an interview from Grand Forks, N.D.

"We still have a lot of winter to go," she said. "Are we going to get some rain on top of all this snow? That wouldn't be ideal at all."

Between Sept. 1 and Jan. 21, rain and snow combined to result in record precipitation for that period for Grand Forks, National Weather Service meteorologist Greg Gust said in a presentation.

The same period was the second wettest on record for Fargo, he said.

While precipitation alone does not necessarily predict a flood, rivers and streams flowing into the Red River in North Dakota and Minnesota are at or near record levels for this time of year, he said. This reduces the capacity for waterways to hold runoff.

The snowpack in the region is up to three times deeper than normal and soil moisture at freeze-up was well above normal, adding to the flood risk.

On the positive side, the depth of the frost in the soil is shallower than usual, meaning the ground may be able to absorb spring runoff quickly.

The greatest determinant of how severe the flood will be this spring is the weather. More snow or rain is expected in the U.S. late this spring, Gust said.

A significant flood in the U.S. does not always translate into a similar flood north of the border, as the Red River widens as it winds its way toward Lake Winnipeg.

The City of Winnipeg, however, is already preparing for a major spring flood. Like the northern Great Plains, southern Manitoba endured an unusually wet fall.

The province has yet to issue a spring flood outlook of its own. Manitoba Infrastructure says it plans on issuing a Red River basin condition report in early February with our first Flood Outlook at the end of February.