The war in Syria is at a critical point. But what's next?

Randa Slim, founding director of The Middle East Institute, joined us to talk about what she describes as 'a new phase' of the war in Syria. Listen to her discussion with Checkup host Duncan McCue, and read on for a few key excerpts:

Duncan McCue: Does the end of the battle for Aleppo mean we're any closer to the end of the war in Syria?

Randa Slim: Not at all. It means we have entered a new phase of the war in Syria.

Look, there is a critical mass of Syrians who have seen blood, who have put their lives on the line because they have come to the conclusion that they cannot have a future, they cannot have freedom, they cannot have dignity, they cannot have jobs as long as Bashar al-Assad, and the family which has ruled Syria for the last 40 years plus, are in control.

Granted there are many supporters of Assad. And the fact that he has survived for so long is a proof that he has enough support in Syria. But there is also a critical mass of Syrians who have resisted, have rejected his rule, and will continue to reject his rule.

DM: Indeed, the coordinator of the rebel forces has vowed that the revolution is going to continue. Is that really possible?

RS: It will continue. The problem is that the revolution that started in 2011 with non-violent young protesters motivated by demands for dignity freedom. The revolution has changed.

DM: Turning to the topic of the West. The U.S. United Nations ambassador Samantha Power said, "Aleppo will join the ranks of those events in world history that define modern evil, that stain our conscience decades later." What more should the West have done?

RS: Look, there were many critical points during the lifecycle of this conflict where intervention could have changed the course of the conflict.

And I'm not here to engage in any kind of revisionism, but there are many points where establishing a no-fly zone makes sense, when establishing a safe zone makes sense, where arming the rebels more makes sense.

But everything that — especially in the United States, where I am — we did is always too little, too late.

DM: There were many attempts to arm some of the rebel groups though. The U.S. alone spent millions and millions of dollars trying to do that.

RS: Yes, spending the money. But it was not done at the right time in the right way to be very honest. And so the product ended up being not exactly what it should have been, but partly because the strategy itself was at fault from the beginning.

So now the West, especially the U.S under an incoming Trump administration, is going to be faced with a much more restrictive set of choices.

The problem with the next phase is that you have a president who is very clear about wanting to make a deal with Putin in Syria, partly because it is not much to his priorities as far as policy goes.

But at the same time, you have a large number of security appointees in the Trump administration who see Iran as the great evil, and who might see resuscitating the old 'axis of evil' speech concerning Iran. So we have yet to see how the Trump administration with the different camps will be able to square these contradictory positions about what to do next in Syria.

Because if you want to deal with Russia, or reach a deal with Russian and Syria, Russia is going to be bringing the Iranians along with them to the bargaining table. How will the Trump administration deal with that?

DM: So if we continue to see the West say this is a no-win situation and not be involved, who are going to be the big outside players in Syria in the months, and perhaps years ahead, in this conflict?

RS: Assad has survived, and he will survive. He will rule on a part of Syria.

Iran and Russia are going to be there for a long time to make sure that this will continue to be the case.

I think some variant of al-Qaeda/ISIS will survive. There is an anti-ISIS fight going on. It's going well in terms of killing a lot of the leaders. But the ideology of ISIS, the drivers of of ISIS, and what drives people into ISIS ranks, will always be there as long as Assad and the Assad family are ruling in Syria.

And then you are going to have the Kurds .... There are going to be areas under Kurdish rule with its own administrative zone, which in my opinion will survive in the long term. And there will be always a group of fighters, some of them former soldiers in the Syrian army, part of what is now known as the Free Syrian Army (FSA), who are now working under the Turkish support as part of the Euphrates Shield Operation. That will also survive.

DM: And last question for you, Randa Slim. The Arab Spring, it began with such such vigor and optimism, it was led by idealistic young people, with cell phones and social media, who wanted freedom and democracy. It seems that the destruction of Aleppo is so far away from those ideals. Briefly, what happened?

RS: I think the ideals will never die. The hope will always be there that these ideals will be revived again.

There will be new groups of people who will take hard lessons at the failures of this phase of the Arab Spring. And what we have seen in the last four years was just the first phase. It's going to go through ups and downs. It's going to be a multi-decade transformation.

But the ideals that drove it will always be there, and they will take different forms: some are peaceful, some are violent. [History] will keep moving on, and eventually we'll have a new crop of young leaders who will pick it up again and move toward the next phase.

DM: Randa, thank you for sharing your expertise on this.

RS: Thank you very much for having me on.