A nail-biter of a council vote on the purchase of Manitoba Hydro land could determine the fate of Winnipeg's first dedicated bus corridor.

City council meets today to consider a plan to buy 16 acres of Crown corporation land Winnipeg Transit needs to build the seven-kilometre second phase of the Southwest Transitway, the busway that currently runs from Queen Elizabeth Way to Jubilee Avenue.

Some city councillors are annoyed with the $19-million purchase because the city and Hydro once had a non-binding agreement that would have resulted in a $4.7-million pricetag, had the Crown corporation not balked at the appraisal methodology for the land.

Others are opposed to the public dollars involved in completing the transitway and widening Pembina Highway at a new Jubilee Avenue underpass and sense an opportunity to kill the $587-million project altogether. Winnipeg Transit director Dave Wardrop has warned a "no" vote would delay busway construction planned for this summer and cause the city to squander countless millions.

Fort Rouge–East Fort Garry Coun. Jenny Gerbasi described this as madness, noting the additional cost of the Hydro purchase is a small portion of the overall transitway budget and is already built in to the project's contingency budget.

A straw poll of councillors' voting intentions on Tuesday suggests the Hydro land purchase could pass by the slimmest of margins — if it does pass at all.

If all 16 members of council are present for the Wednesday debate about the deal, nine "yes" votes are required for it to pass. As of Tuesday, nine members of council either planned to vote in favour or were leaning that way. They include rapid-transit advocates such as Gerbasi and Mayor Brian Bowman, but also more councillors who have expressed reservations about the purchase, such as Marty Morantz (Charleswoood–Tuxedo–Whyte Ridge), Ross Eadie (Mynarski) and Matt Allard (St. Boniface).

On the other side, five councillors either intend to vote no or are leaning in that direction. Their ranks include Transcona Coun. Russ Wyatt, who wants to delay a council decision on the purchase for several weeks.

Two councillors are sitting on the fence: speaker Devi Sharma (Old Kildonan) and public works chair Janice Lukes (South Winnipeg–St. Norbert). Since Lukes' portfolio includes transit, a vote against the Hydro purchase could lead Bowman to take some form of action against the rookie suburban councillor.

"I think it's still too close to call," Allard said.

If the mayor senses he does not have enough votes to pass the Hydro sale, he has the option of trying to pull the deal from the council agenda and bringing it back at a later date, such as the July council meeting. Former mayor Sam Katz executed this maneuver on several occasions when it appeared motions he supported were destined for defeat.

On Tuesday, Bowman declined to say whether he believed he had enough votes to get the Hydro deal approved. Since his election nearly two years ago, he's already lost at one significant vote: In 2014, council voted 10 to 6 against his effort to cut back their severance payments.

Yes or leaning yes (nine): Mayor Brian Bowman and Couns. Matt Allard (St. Boniface), Ross Eadie (Mynarski), Jenny Gerbasi (Fort Rouge–East Fort Garry), Cindy Gilroy (Daniel McIntyre), Brian Mayes (St. Vital), Marty Morantz (Charleswood–Tuxedo–Whyte Ridge), John Orlikow (River Heights–Fort Garry) and Mike Pagtakhan (Point Douglas).

No or leaning no (five): Couns. Jeff Browaty (North Kildonan), Shawn Dobson (St. Charles), Scott Gillingham (St. James–Brooklands), Jason Schreyer (Elmwood-East Kildonan) and Russ Wyatt (Transcona).

On the fence (two): Couns. Devi Sharma (Old Kildonan) and Janice Lukes (South Winnipeg-St. Norbert).