Calgary byelection results show 'small-c' conservative sentiments

NDP loss a setback for Alberta's governing party, but win means much more to the Wildrose

Image | Prasad Panda wins Calgary-Foothills byelection

Caption: It was third time's the charm for Prasad Panda, left, who won a seat for the Wildrose Party after two unsuccessful attempts. (CBC)

This week's byelection in Calgary-Foothills shows the city's "small-c" conservative heart is still very much beating.

Image | Bob Hawkesworth

Caption: Besides serving as a Calgary city councillor for 23 years, Bob Hawkesworth spent two terms as an NDP MLA, representing Calgary Mountain View in 1986 and 1989. (CBC)

The map of provincial ridings in Calgary may still be mostly NDP orange, but given the New Democrats threw everything they had to bring Foothills into the fold — and still fell short — there's a message about just how hard the four-month-old dynasty-ending government will need to work to keep those seats.
There are only a handful of well-known NDPers in the city and Bob Hawkesworth is part of that small group.
Yet with that recognition, an airlift of experienced campaigners from Edmonton, and even Premier Rachel Notley spending some political capital by going door-to-door with Hawkesworth, the NDP didn't win.
It improved its showing over a paltry 3.75 per cent of the vote in a byelection last October.
But the NDP pulled in 32 per cent of the vote running against Jim Prentice just a few months ago, so observers could be forgiven if they feel the orange wave has receded with Thursday's 26 per cent tally.

Bad optics

While finishing second can be easily dismissed by the NDP (and it was), it provides some bad optics for the government.
Voters in this northwest riding were given a chance to have an experienced NDP player enter the government caucus and possibly the cabinet, or they could send a message with a political newcomer.
The majority of the 39 per cent who bothered to vote opted for the latter. Given the economic news of late, it shouldn't be a surprise.
Less than a year ago, I went door-knocking in this riding with then premier and PC candidate Jim Prentice.
Once they recovered from the shock of seeing the premier on their own doorstep, a good number of Foothills voters candidly told Prentice what was on their minds. The economy, and specifically the challenges that were starting to face the energy industry, were front and centre.
So in a week where hundreds of Calgarians lost well-paying energy jobs, and Finance Minister Joe Ceci announced Alberta is heading for a $5.9 billion deficit, most voters in Foothills seem a bit cranky with their new government.
Those events taking place just days prior to the byelection didn't help the NDP's chances. This was perhaps compounded in the minds of some voters because while it's promising action on the economy, the government's first budget and a vaunted jobs creation plan won't be rolled out until late October.

Wildrose smiles

The two guys with the big smiles on election night are also a big part of this byelection story.
MLA-elect Prasad Panda gets his wish: a seat in the legislature. He's absorbed two election losses for the Wildrose in the past, so for an oil and gas guy he's stoked to be leaving the patch for a new job in politics.

Image | Prasad Panda wins Calgary-Foothills byelection

Caption: Wildrose Party leader Brian Jean stands with Prasad Panda, the unofficial winner in tonight's byelection in Calgary-Foothills. (Allison Dempster/CBC)

Wildrose leader Brian Jean is also grinning because his rural-dominated caucus gets an urban MLA. He's also feeling sure that his party is supplanting the PCs as the choice for conservative-minded voters.
For the first time since 1971, Foothills will not have a PC MLA at the legislature and Jean says that's significant.
"I don't think they've ever placed under 40 per cent in this riding," said Jean. "It's the strongest riding they have in Alberta and they've lost it. I think it clearly indicates where Albertans are going and they're going towards a Wildrose future."
In fact, the only time before last night the PCs did finish under 40 per cent was in the 1989 election, a night where even the unpopular premier of the day, Don Getty, lost his Edmonton riding — even if his party did win a majority.

Whither the PCs?

The PCs finished third on Thursday, with a respectable 21.59 per cent showing. But that's a huge drop from its dynasty days when scoring more than 50 per cent was routine.

Image | Calgary-Foothills byelection

Caption: Candidates for the Calgary-Foothills byelection. From left: Liberal Ali Bin Zahid, Wildrose Prasad Panda, PC Blair Houston, Green Party Janet Keeping, NDP Bob Hawkesworth and Alberta Party Mark Taylor. Independent candidate Antoni Grochowski is not pictured. (albertaliberal.com/Twitter/Green Party/CBC)

The results seem to indicate an NDP government has been a revitalizing tonic for the Wildrose. It's one thing to attack the stacked baggage of a PC dynasty, but ideologically speaking, it's quite another to attack this rookie NDP government. For this "true blue" conservative party, attacking the NDP is like shooting fish in a barrel.
There wasn't even a contested PC nomination here and Wildrose showed it can win without the need for a unite the right movement. That's a worrying sign for the Tories who were sent to the penalty box by voters last spring. The battle back to respectability may be a long one. Conversely, given the party's lack of a permanent leader and dire financial situation, a glass half-full person would probably look at this finish and mutter that it could have been worse.
Just prior to the byelection, PC candidate Blair Houston held a news conference in his campaign office which was located well outside the Foothills riding. There were dozens of Houston's campaign signs in the office. For a party lacking cash, the fact those signs were made but never pounded into lawns, or even boulevards, in Foothills is a different kind of sign for the PCs.

Also-rans

Left wandering in the political wilderness are the Alberta Liberals, which placed fourth, and the Alberta Party in fifth place. Both get points for trying, but single-digit support levels mean their attempts to build on one-seat beach-heads in Calgary aren't resonating with voters.
For the also-rans in this race, the next provincial vote must truly seem to be a lifetime away.
For the NDP, it's a matter of what might have been, for it could have had an experienced politician join its ranks.
Instead, the Official Opposition gains a seat, which isn't bad for a Wildrose Party that many had given up for dead after previous leader Danielle Smith and most of her caucus jumped to the PC government last year.
As that event and recent votes show, things can and do change quickly in politics.