What really happens the day after the Ontario election
The Canadian Press | Posted: June 8, 2014 9:34 PM | Last Updated: June 8, 2014
Several outcomes possible depending on whether 1 party gets a majority or not
Contrary to popular belief, Ontario voters don't fire their premiers.
It's the biggest misconception voters have about what happens the day after an election, experts say.
Premier Kathleen Wynne and the Liberal government can continue to govern until she resigns or they lose a confidence vote in the legislature.
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But she has said she won't do that if another party wins the most seats.
There are several possible outcomes from Thursday's vote, with various aftermaths:
- If the Liberal government wins a majority of seats, they must still go to Ontario's lieutenant-governor — the person who exercises authority of a province on behalf of the Queen, Canada's head of state — and ask to form a new government. The premier and all the ministers, even if there are no changes from the previous cabinet, must be sworn in by the viceregal, who is the ultimate authority on who forms a government.
- If another party wins a majority, the premier typically resigns and requests that the lieutenant-governor allow the leader of the winning party to form a government. But that doesn't necessarily happen right away. Usually there's a transition period of a few weeks — which is negotiated by both parties — while the new government prepares to take the reins, such as selecting a cabinet. That was the case in 2003, when the Progressive Conservatives lost to the Liberals.
- If no party wins a majority of the 107 seats — 54 being the key number — things get a bit more complicated. Despite what Wynne herself declared, "if the results are fairly close and if there's any sense that the premier may be able to cobble together a way of staying in power, then it's unlikely that she'd offer her resignation," said Graham White, politics professor at the University of Toronto. A party winning a plurality of seats but falling short of a majority must still ask the lieutenant-governor to form a government. As always, it's up to the viceregal to make that decision, based on whether the lieutenant-governor believes they can command the confidence of the legislature.
- Governments open a new legislative session with a speech from the throne, read by the lieutenant-governor, which outlines their agenda. It is considered a confidence vote. So in a minority government, if the throne speech doesn't pass, it can trigger an election. But if the other two parties form an alliance, they could convince the lieutenant-governor that they can win the confidence of the legislature and he could allow them to form a government.
The latter happened in 1985, when the Progressive Conservatives under Frank Miller won the most seats, but didn't have a majority. The Liberals, with four fewer seats than the Tories, worked out an accord with the New Democrats, who agreed to support them for two years if they introduced certain NDP policies. Miller recalled the legislature June 4 and introduced a throne speech two weeks later. An amendment was added — a motion of non-confidence — and it passed. The house was adjourned.
Aware of the Liberal-NDP accord, Lt.-Gov. John Aird invited the Liberals to form a government. It was not a formal coalition government, as the New Democrats did not have ministers in cabinet.
When the house returned on July 2, the session continued, but with the Liberals in charge.
Legislative machinations
There are many other variables that can change what happens.
The minority government may decide to tone down a partisan agenda in a throne speech or budget to win the support of one of the other parties.
The two opposition parties could also register their disapproval of a throne speech or budget without bringing down the government by abstaining from the crucial vote. It allows the bill to pass and avoids another costly election or power struggle.
If a party boots its leader after failing to win the election, it may want to buy some time to choose a new one before trying to bring the minority government down.
It's all part of the complicated math of another minority government.