The Liberals' challenges on the road to re-election

Re-election campaigns hang on a party's ability to convince voters they have brought change and will continue to do so, according to Barack Obama's former chief campaign strategist.

But as political success seems to increasingly rest on providing something different than the current government, that can be a challenge.

"By being incumbents, you are the status quo," David Axelrod told The House from the Liberal policy convention in Halifax.

"The important thing for the Liberal party is to make clear all the changes they've already implemented."

The Liberals' 2015 campaign was built around that theme, and the next campaign will be a balance of citing their successes and defending their failures, according to the incoming party president.

Justin Trudeau's Liberals have looked to the U.S. for inspiration as they prepare to mount a re-election campaign.

For the Liberals to remain in government, Axelrod says they have to focus on a handful of concrete, specific issues as the foundation of their campaign.

He added it will be key to make sure the different political options are clear in voters' minds and what the outcome of each of those choices will be.

However, sentiments that swept the U.S. during the last presidential election could find root in Canadian politics as well.

Provincial party leaders like Ontario's Doug Ford and Quebec's François Legault are swaying support with a populist message.

As uncertainty looms over trade, a growing federal deficit and other issues like unemployment, Axelrod said populism will grow.

"Populism is a pushback because of all this wrenching change that we've seen," he said, adding that a response to oppose that movement hasn't been perfected yet.

Ultimately, voters will decide what change looks like to them.

Obama's success came as he focused on the economy and the middle class, Axelrod said.

Just because that was similar to the tone of the Liberals' 2015 campaign doesn't mean it won't work again.

You can still champion change and make it clear you're going to keep working on it, Axelrod concluded.

"Those things are tangible, those things are real."

Liberal MPs examine key issues from across the country

Reinforcing the core goals the Liberals ran on in 2015 will be a key part of holding Atlantic seats in next year's federal election, according to two regional MPs.

"We're not running on a change mandate, we're running on a keep-on-doing mandate," Halifax representative Andy Fillmore told The House's host Chris Hall.

The Liberals won all 32 seats in the region in the last election, in many cases stealing ridings long held by the Conservatives and the NDP.

Holding those seats could prove a challenge, but it's one Karen Ludwig, a New Brunswick MP, says she's ready for.

"I never let up," she said, explaining her party needs to continue focusing on rural and remote areas of the country where support hasn't typically been as strong.

Pushing successful platform promises into the spotlight will also be a key to victory in 2019, she said.

"We need to get on top of our own messaging."

For the most part, the core promises will look similar — but that doesn't mean the party is sitting back, Fillmore added.

"We're not going to veer off of the core principles and the core platform that we ran on in 2015 … but we are here to hear new ideas," he said.

"We're not taking anything for granted."

Other MPs from around the country felt the tone of the convention would affect their ridings in another way. 

"I think it's really important that we continue the momentum," Celina Caesar-Chavannes, an MP from Ontario, said. 

However, she acknowledged that the upcoming election in her province would play largely into federal politics — and a potential new premier is something to be wary of federally. 

"If we were to remain stagnant after four years in a majority government then I think Canadians would become complacent."

Her Quebec colleague, Joel Lightbound, agreed. 

He explained the idea of hearing from new voices and players was what convinced him to run for a seat. 

The government has a responsibility to listen, he added, but that doesn't guarantee every potential policy will make it through the vetting process. 

"At the end of the day the government makes its decisions based on the evidence that's before it."

In central Canada, Liberal MPs are watching how the party interacts with the grassroots. 

"I think it's important the grassroots keep pushing us," said Winnipeg MP Dan Vandal. 

Those political sentiments are also being felt in Alberta. 

"There is a progressive core to a number of ridings," said Edmonton's Randy Boissonnault, adding it's important to keep campaigning on change.

"I think change is the new normal."

While some challenges are ideological, others have physical consequences — like the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion on the west coast. 

The way environmental and economic issues play together could give a good sense of what to expect in the 2019 election. 

"I think the next election is not going to be about any single issue voter," Stephen Fuhr, the MP for Kelowna, said. 

His coastal counterpart added the government will need to think in broad, cross-country strokes during the campaign.

"It's important to note that governing requires thinking about the perspectives of all Canadians," Jonathan Wilkinson said.

Liberal MPs aren't the only ones watching the policy refinement in Halifax this weekend.

Lisa Raitt, the deputy Conservative leader, explained she was surprised to see so many policy resolutions that included hefty price tags. 

The Liberal vulnerability, she added, is that they haven't figured out how to cut back spending and Canadians are beginning to notice. 

"There's a different vibe out there in the country," she said.

NDP MP Nathan Cullen agreed, saying you have to think of what voters will want 18 months down the road.

Right now, he said, people will be asking if the government is competent and able to keep commitments. 

Lead-up to 2019 election a balancing act, incoming party president says

The incoming Liberal party president says their biggest challenge going into next year's election will be the balancing act between boasting about and defending the government's track record during their first mandate.

"There has been change… but that work isn't finished," Suzanne Cowan told The House.

"We need to have a second mandate so we can make sure the things that we've been able to implement stick."

According to the government's own assessment, only 81 of the 364 mandate commitments have been completed, with another 232 in progress.

The government has also come under fire for dropping some campaign promises since being elected — most notably, electoral reform.

Future policies to run on in 2019 will be debated at the party's convention in Halifax this weekend.

Not all delegates at the gathering are likely to agree on the best path forward, but that's an eventuality Cowan is expecting.

"This is what we do, this is why we have these policy conventions," she said.

A mix of new and existing policies will make up the Liberal party platform leading into next year's vote, and Cowan says it's important for the party to communicate to voters what they've done over the past three years as well as what the future could hold.

Another challenge will be assessing the other two parties, as both the NDP and Conservatives have new leaders, she added.

"It's going to take even more to win in 2019, it's going to take more money, it's going to take more people."

In House: How do you energize voters before an election?

Joel-Denis Bellavance from La Presse and Greg MacEachern, senior vice-president with Proof Strategies, join us for a special edition of our In House panel. They discuss how to motivate people ahead of a re-election campaign and dissect what discussions they'll be watching in the months ahead.