What experts, advocates and critics want to see in Budget 2018

Before this year's budget is released on Tuesday, we asked politicians and policy experts what they are hoping to see in its pages.

The Liberals have been hinting the budget was passed through a gender-based analysis to test the impact it would have on both men and women.

On top of the new focus on gender equality, there have been strong calls for more funding for Indigenous children.

There were also rumours that a new paternity leave plan could be announced this year.

Balancing the budget

Revealing their plan to balance the budget in a timely manner should be the Liberals' priority for this budget, according to Aaron Wudrick, the federal director of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation.

"What we would like to see is first of all a plan to get back to balance," he told The House.

As part of that plan, Wudrick said, this budget should introduce shifts in the tax system.

The Department of Finance estimated Canada won't be able to run a balanced budget until 2050, with the deficit peaking at $38.8 billion in the 2035-36 fiscal year.

Finding a faster route to balance would be a daunting task, but Wudrick said the specific area he wants to see revisited soon is the carbon tax, as it — along with other current tax policies — hurts Canada's ability to compete with the United States. 

"If we do everything we're supposed and other countries don't, it's not going to stop climate change," he said.

"If you were an investor with a choice between putting money here or south of the border, the big tax rate advantage that Canada used to enjoy is gone. So the government at the very least needs to start thinking about other ways to increase their advantages."

Tax cuts

Using the budget as an opportunity to stabilize taxes would help determine Canada's ability to compete in the global economy, said the Conservative finance critic.

The mounting federal deficit, coupled with uncertainty caused by high household debt levels, will worry investors, Pierre Poilievre told The House.

Household debt levels in Canada are higher than those in any country included in a new OECD report — something that Stephen Poloz, the governor of the Bank of Canada, admits keeps him up at night.

Poilievre agreed it's a concern.

"Today's deficits are tomorrow's taxes," he said.

When asked where the government could cut taxes, he answered: "Almost everywhere."

By increasing taxes, you give a "major advantage" to Canada's southern neighbour.

If the government doesn't make eliminating debt and keeping tax rates low its combined fiscal focus over the next few years, Poilievre said, Canadian companies will suffer.

"It will make it harder for our businesses to create jobs and compete on a world stage," he said.

"I'm overall very worried about the amount of debt that governments in general are adding."

Parental leave

This budget could offer our first look at paternity leave at the federal level.

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has been toying with the idea of creating a use-it-or-lose-it funded leave for new dads, but few details have surfaced.

Even with scarce information being made public, the Liberals could finally put a plan into action, said Kate Bezanson, a social policy expert from Brock University.

All the indicators point to a comprehensive strategy on parental leave, she told The House.

"I expect that this budget will probably emulate the Quebec model," Bezanson said, adding that the five weeks of leave at 70 per cent income offered in Quebec — the only province with dedicated paternity leave — has proven effective.

But it's not just new fathers the Liberals will be targeting, as the budget was passed through a gender lens.

The budget , she said, likely will begin to challenge "longstanding issues" such as how to increase the number of women in the labour market and address the gender wage gap.

Attaching other social policies to the plan for parental leave, similar to what was done in Quebec, will make it more effective, she said.

"I'm remaining hopeful that childcare will still be significantly on the agenda," Bezanson said. 

"We know that parental leave and childcare go hand in hand in terms of women's economic equality."

Economic equality

Budget 2018 is likely to include policies to tackle inequality in various forms, but economic inequality still worries Peter Julian, the NDP's finance critic.

One of the biggest factors contributing to that inequality is the existence of loopholes that allow for offshore tax havens, he told The House.

Canadians have billions of dollars tucked away in accounts overseas, according to news reports based on leaked confidential investment documents such as the Panama Papers and the Paradise Papers — but the government so far hasn't been able to reclaim a penny of taxes owed.

Julian said the NDP thinks taxing those billions would provide enough funds to begin to tackle inequality issues like housing and pharmacare.

It's not a perfect plan, he said, but it's a place for the government to start.

"We expect that they will do a reality check and actually respond to Canadians' needs," he said. 

And what is Julian himself hoping to see in the budget?

"What I would hope to see, what is absolutely necessary, is a significant investment in affordable housing."

Indigenous services

The fight to further close the funding gap between Indigenous and non-Indigenous communities in Canada could finally bear fruit in the 2018 budget, after years of consultations and meetings between the government and Indigenous officials.

That's giving Perry Bellegarde, national chief for the Assembly of First Nations (AFN), cause for hope.

Good progress has been made, especially in the past few months, he told The House — but there's still a need to push the government and "hold their feet to the fire."

He's expecting a proper investment to end discrimination against Indigenous children, as well as money to cut down the number of boil-water advisories and build more housing.

In its pre-budget submission to Finance Canada, the AFN made a plea for funding for things like education, housing and infrastructure.

While almost $12 billion has been promised for Indigenous services in the last two federal budgets, how the money gets treated as it trickles down the bureaucracy will be the real test, according to Bellegarde.

"Are the departments looking at more effective and efficient ways to make sure that these precious resources are having an impact on the ground where it really matters?"