Manitoba voters head to the polls
With voters in Manitoba heading to the polls on April 19, the CBC's polls analyst Eric Grenier looks ahead at what might be in store for the province.
Chris Hall: The NDP has been in government in Manitoba since 1999. What are Premier Greg Selinger's chances at holding onto power?
Eric Grenier: Not very good. The New Democrats under Greg Selinger have been trailing in the polls since, really, the last three years. When they came in and made a change to the PST, increasing it from seven to eight per cent and going against what they had promised during the previous election campaign, they really haven't been able to recover from that.
Greg Selinger has had internal turmoil — he had five cabinet ministers more or less revolt and he had to fight his own leadership race within his own party. It's been a bit of a rough ride for the New Democrats. The polls are showing the Progressive Conservatives, who are led by Brian Pallister, currently have roughly 50 per cent support and the New Democrats have about half of that.
CH: Is that support for Pallister and the PCs spread broadly across the province?
EG: No. He has very wide support in the rural parts of Manitoba — upwards of 60, 70 per cent, whereas in Winnipeg, where most of the seats are in the province, his support is still strong at roughly 40 per cent or more, and that's really where the election will be decided.
If the New Democrats can make up some ground in Winnipeg, then they can start to put that majority [PC] government into question.
CH: Where are the Liberals in all this?
EG: They started the campaign very competitive. They were really running in a close place with the New Democrats for second. [But] they've been running a very disjointed campaign. They've had a lot of problems. Some of their candidates have been disqualified simply because they didn't do the correct paperwork, so they're not going to have candidates in about a tenth of ridings. They're now trailing under 20 per cent support, and there's still some question whether their numbers will continue to slide.
CH: What are the big issues of the election?
EG: It hasn't been the most dynamic campaign, in terms of issues. It's really more about the Progressive Conservatives positioning themselves as the replacement for the New Democrats. It's really more of a change election rather than any sort of issues election. Not a lot of specifics, a lot of very vague talk. I think, at this stage, it really is about a referendum on Greg Selinger and the NDP.