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The House

Looking ahead to the end of the Ontario PC leadership race

As the voting deadline looms, we sat down with Chad Rogers, a public affairs strategist and founding partner at Crestview Strategy, to talk about which candidate has the edge, how the party can move past the resignation of Patrick Brown and what the party will look like leading into the provincial election.
CBC Radio ·
One political science professor noted that during the leadership campaign, there was little ideological distance among the candidates. (Justin Tang/Canadian Press)

The Ontario Progressive Conservative leadership race has been one of the shortest and most chaotic campaigns in Canadian political history.

Voting closes Friday evening for party members and the winner will be announced Saturday afternoon, but many questions remain.

Which candidate has the edge? How can the party move past the resignation of Patrick Brown? What will the party look like heading into the provincial election?

No matter the outcome, the Progressive Conservatives will have to grapple with issues like gender equality and workplace misconduct, Chad Rogers, a public affairs strategist and founding partner at Crestview Strategy, told The House.

Each of the candidates has unique advantages and disadvantages, he explained.

"Christine is generally liked by everyone, hated by no one."

Calling her the "inoffensive, experience candidate," Rogers said her long history in politics is her best shot at the party's top job.

Leaning away from inoffensive is Doug Ford, but he could capitalize on the frustration Ontarians are feeling.

"The moment in Ontario is a bit of an angry one," Rogers said.

The Fords have a reputation for stoking political outsiders to action, he continued, but the challenge is that Ford is unpredictable at a time where the party likely doesn't want to take a risk.

"The party doesn't want a time bomb for a leader."

While both Elliott and Ford have political backgrounds, first-time candidates Caroline Mulroney and Tanya Granic Allen will have to lean on something other than experience.

Granic Allen, a longtime activist, seems to have taken advantage of the great influence she has in activist circles.

"Folks who love that genre know her very well," Rogers said. "She's drawn a ton of attention to her cause."

As for Mulroney, he explained the race probably won't pan out for her this time, but she's established herself as a candidate.

The Patrick Brown effect

Patrick Brown may no longer be the leader, but his effect on the race is undeniable. He's been discussed at length in each of the leadership debates and his back-and-forth on whether to run to replace himself kept his name on the lips of party members.

As the race turns provincial, he could still cause issues for the party.

"Patrick has shown absolutely no self awareness," Rogers said. "It's a circus."

PC Leader Patrick Brown addresses the Conservative Party convention, in Toronto on Saturday, November 25, 2017. (Chris Young/Canadian Press)

However, he added that the chaos may have actually benefited the PCs.

"I wouldn't have recommended the scandal Patrick Brown initiated to better the lot of the party, but weirdly, it worked."

Now at the tail end of the race, how did the format pan out for the party?

"Different, new and a little frustrating."

For more coverage ahead of the leadership announcement, listen to the CBC's Queen's Park reporters Meagan Fitzpatrick and Mike Crawley dissect the race on this week's Pollcast with Éric Grenier.

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