As parties consider minority options, overlapping speeches show communication problem: Vassy Kapelos

Guests: Shachi Kurl, Vassy Kapelos, Daniel Beland

SOUNDCLIP

VOICE 1: I think the headline should be coalition, baby.

VOICE 2: The headline should be good luck. It's going to be a tough go. Challenging time's ahead for Canada.

VOICE 3: The headline should be Face Off.

VOICE 4: A squeaky win.

VOICE 5: Trudeau reined In. The headline should be interesting.

VOICE 6: I guess Canada, the land of second chances.

LL: That's how some people on the rainy streets of Vancouver were framing election night. I'm joined now by three people for their take on the election results. Shachi Kurl is the executive director of the not for profit polling organization Angus Reid Institute Vassy Kapelos as the host of Power Politics on CBC News Network. They're with me here in our Toronto studio. And Daniel Beland is the director of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada. He is in Montreal. Hello to all of you.

VASSY KAPELOS: Good morning.

DANIEL BELAND: Good morning.

SHACHI KURL: Good morning.

LL: All bright and shiny and awake? So you heard the people on the streets in Vancouver giving their headlines. Let's try this. Vassay, what's your headline from last night?

VASSY KAPELOS: I like the Trudeau reined in one. I think that's indicative. My headline would be a country even more divided than it went into this campaign. A country more divided. Certainly. The thing that sticks out to me is the way that map looked at the end of the night. And I think the implications moving forward are numerous.

LL: Okay, we'll get into those. What about you Shachi? What's your headline?

SHACHI KURL: Well, I liked the headline good luck. And I think my headline would be. Now what? Or what next? Because to fascist point, how do you navigate a national agenda with a country as fractured and divided as it appears to be, particularly in Alberta and Saskatchewan? And how do you do it with a government and a prime minister who last night delivered a speech acting as though he had been handed back a majority mandate, but in fact lost the popular vote and therefore has a mandate in terms of seats in the House. But it didn't really come first in the hearts of Canadians.

LL: Okay, Daniel Beland, what your headline coming from Quebec?

DANIEL BELAND: Yes, I think it's fragmentation, fragmentation, fragmentation. It's it's quite fascinating. The results, I think, reflect some clear regional divisions across the country, not just, I think, between different provinces and regions, but also there is a strong urban-rural gap or difference here that we should certainly talk about. So I don't think it's just about, say, differences between Alberta and Ontario, but also the rural-urban divide seems to be quite strong across the country.

LL: Vassy, you have throughout the campaign and again, last night we're talking to the various campaigns were rooms. What were they last saying about the results of this election?

VASSY KAPELOS: Well, actually, what I found really interesting is that the conversations I had, let's say, on Sunday with all of them indicated this almost this exact result. The only thing that they had, or their internal polling had overestimated was perhaps the showing of the NDP. They had pegged them, most parties, had pegged them at hitting between a 30 and 35 seat mark. So this is sort of what they had come to anticipate. And they particularly had focussed in on Ontario. That's where they had seen movement in the last final days of this campaign. A lot of talk, particularly about the potential or what seemed to be a potentially very big impact where strategic voting is concerned. That is what we heard from the various parties, particularly the Liberals, in the last eight or nine days of this campaign. It was a specific message. You know, it aimed at keeping the conservatives out. It was something Justin Trudeau addressed right off the top of his speech last night even. And it appears to have had a measurable impact in the parts of the country that liberals were hoping that it did. And the conservatives who I was speaking with, I mean, that had a host of things to say. But they had they felt they had underestimated that impact as of this weekend.

LL: Now, Shachi, you note that the Conservatives actually won the popular vote, but they didn't win the number of seats. So what did they do? Right. What did they do wrong?

SHACHI KURL: Oh, well, I think. This was for the conservatives, a campaign of missed opportunities. Now, it may be that at the outset of this campaign and heading into it, Andrew Scheer and his advisers felt that it needed to be a campaign predicated on a message of sort of that hard right core conservative philosophy and values in order to keep the base onside, especially with Maxime Bernier, who, of course, lost his seat in the vote last night. But at the time, we didn't know that nipping at his heels. Now, looking back on it six weeks later, it really appears that the party had an opportunity to pivot to the centre. This was an issue where climate change was the number one concern for swing voters. This was a campaign where people were looking for a more moderate leadership and were getting it from the three, four other party leaders. So you have to wonder what might have happened had Andrew Scheer pivoted more to the centre, had more to say on climate change, had dropped some of the harder line stuff around social values. Of course, he said himself that he wasn't going to re-open the abortion debate, but not convincingly enough that the electorate bought it. He was constantly asked over the course of the campaign, why won't you march in a pride parade if that wasn't right for him? Send a top lieutenant to do it. But the party missed some really critical moments in a campaign that was largely theirs to win.

LL: But two words, Doug Ford, how much of a role did that play?

SHACHI KURL: The Ford factor ended up, I think, being quite a factor. Wouldn't you note that the liberal path to victory ran through Quebec. Yes. What really ran through Ontario? So when did decision desk start calling for that liberal minority? It was after the Ontario vote started rolling in. And we knew from polling during the campaign that even moderates, federal conservatives, people who had voted for Stephen Harper in past years, were so incensed by some of the things that Doug Ford and his government had done that that would be a consideration in terms of their federal vote. And that may well have been something that played out. And as Vassy talked about, we knew that that left of centre vote was a mile wide and inch deep and we didn't really know when it was going to lock in. Even days before the election, people were saying they might change their vote. And we saw them do that.

LL: Let let's have a listen to the leader of the Bloc Quebecois, Yves-Francois Blanchet speaking last night.

SOUNDCLIP

YVES-FRANCOIS BLANCHET: [Via Interpreter] I want to convey my give a great answer to all the activists on the Bloc Quebecois, and I want to thank my adviser and friend, Mr. Gilles Duceppe. And I had some friendly thoughts. Did they give me some gratitude for being a great team that ran an impossible campaign in money and human resources. We did a lot more with a lot less than many others.

LL: Daniel Beland, what explains assess the success of the Bloc Quebecois?

DANIEL BELAND: Well, I think that Francois Legault and the popularity of his CQ government in Quebec plays a major role here because they have really reenergized the nationalism in Quebec. I think that we have also to recognize the work of Mr. Blanchet and his team. I think the Bloc ran a very good campaign in Quebec and the they won big, although, you know, they didn't win as big as in many past elections in 1993. They have they won 54 seats and 49 percent of the votes. And frankly, they won more seats in all the elections, federal elections between 1993 and 2008 than they won last night. So it's a big contrast with 2011 when they won only four seats and last time 2015 when they won only 10 seats. But the Liberals still won more seats in Quebec than the Bloc. And they also won the popular vote. They finish ahead of the Bloc. So it depends. You know, while all you look at it, it's certainly a return of Quebec nationalism to de France stage. And although Mr. Blanchet mentioned sovereignty last night in his speech because he asked who is the leader of the Bloc, which is a sovereignist party. Frankly, I think that this is more about the vote for the Bloc and this time around is not about so much about sovereignty except for the core base of the party, but it's about defending Quebec autonomy in Ottawa.

LL: Vassy I see you nodding your head through parts of Daniel's answer.

VASSY KAPELOS: Yes, no, definitely. I think that actually what struck me as soon as the Quebec results started coming in and [unintelligible]alluded to it was the relative strength of the liberals in the province. I think going into the campaign, I remember the conversations I had had with a number of people running that campaign. They were anticipating the liberal campaign, rather, they were anticipating real growth in Quebec. That changed as the projections for the bloc started increasing throughout the last six weeks. And then they were concerned about how many they could lose. They had anticipated the potential for a much worse outcome for them in Quebec yesterday. I think the fact that they didn't see that actually provides a bit of a check to the kind of sentiment expressed by Mr. Blanchet and the potential for the Bloc to make inroads in, let's say, some sovereignty or even a nationalist sentiment. And I think also it really did actually contribute to the strength of their outcome. As we looked at Ontario in Quebec, it started to become really clear, not just from Ontario, but the fact that they didn't end up losing a ton of seats in Quebec, that they were headed to some kind of win last night.

LL: All right. Shachi, the NDP, they outperformed, I suppose, low expectations, but they still lost seats.

SHACHI KURL: And in the end, they didn't quite outperform the lowest of those low expectations. So they entered this campaign about 20 points behind the Liberals. They ended it about there. Is this going to be enough to help Jagmeet Singh's safeguard his leadership? So it was very much the narrative of the campaign, which is the NDP looked like it was headed into oblivion at the beginning of it, had a bit of a renaissance and a coming alive and a bloom midway through. Mr. Singh looked like he was picking up really big momentum in favour ability. But at the end of the day, in the wake of that appeal from the Liberals on strategic voting, it fizzled. And so now the NDP, on one hand, is a caucus that is Mr. Singh's caucus, largely driven by electoral success in British Columbia, but countered and tampered down by those losses in Quebec.

LL: But they still have 24 seats and they still are going to make a difference in this upcoming parliament.

SHACHI KURL: They will have a role to play. And again, that will probably be part of what enables Mr. Singh to sort of navigate his path forward. The party itself took about 15 percent of the popular vote. It's an interesting scenario, because if you look at what the Greens and the NDP did in terms of popular vote, they took about one fifth of it, 22 percent, and they got 22 seats in the House. You look at Mr. Blanchet and the Bloc Quebecois, they got eight percent of the national vote and took 30 seats in the House. So it makes you wonder about electoral reform.

LL: I was going to say that's certainly why you could expect Elizabeth May to be talking about the need for proportional representation today, Vassy.

VASSY KAPELOS: Probably. Yes. And a few others, not the conservatives, however, who wouldn't probably have the strongest argument at this juncture given their share of the popular vote. I would not expect them to come out today and be talking about proportional representation. Maybe they'll surprise. You never know. It's a new party. It's a new day.

LL: Daniel Beland, with the election results being so tight, we're getting a bit of a refresher course on minority parliaments. So help us out. What happens next?

DANIEL BELAND: Well, I think that it's the convention, constitutional convention that the incoming prime minister as a shot that forming government and then testing the confidence of the House. And, of course, this time around is quite simple, because Mr. Prime Minister Trudeau really as the most see I mean, the Liberals have the most seats, but they obviously don't have the majority. So now they will have to probably to speak to the other parties, especially the NDP, and see what they can do together in terms of, you know, where they might be agreement on potential legislation. They will have to think about the troll speech. And of course, don't forget, that's very important of course, cabinet and Cabinet selecting ministers will be a big issue here because you don't you no longer have employees in Saskatchewan or Alberta. And so what will the liberals do? Will they try to remember in Quebec in 2006 conservatives appointed Michael Fortier to the Senate and to Cabinet. Because they didn't have that many solid or MPs in Quebec, will they try to do something like that to have some representation from, say, Alberta?

LL: Well, that's interesting. Trudeau has made the Senate not a party appointed position for him. So who does he choose?

DANIEL BELAND: Well, that could be an interesting thing to see. I'm just saying that's just one possibility. But suddenly, you don't have to be an MP to be a member of the cabinet, but you have to base on our system at the first support [unintelligible] said the next election. If you are a minister, you have to try to run for a seat in the House of Commons. So there are scenarios. I think it would be hard politically. It's already difficult in terms of the concentration, the conservative vote and the fact that there are no Liberal MPs in Saskatchewan. Because Ralph Goodale, who was there I think since 1993 or from was there for many, many years, is gone. And they lost all of their seats in Alberta and two major provinces, especially demographically. Alberta is a big province. One of the four biggest provinces. Not having any Albertans at the cabinets cabinet table, I think is a challenge. And one of the many regional territorial challenges that I think this minority government will face right now.

LL: Vassy, we know that minority governments have managed to last 18 months, two years in the past and provide some form of stability. What do you see going forward, especially given the tone of some of last night's speeches? It didn't sound very friendly or supportive.

VASSY KAPELOS: The tone and the just occurrence of them happening all at the same time. I think as a Canadian, I watch that and I thought, well, this maybe doesn't bode so well for how they're all going to work together. I think the voters sent a very specific message to all the parties in that I think in a minority situation, they want them to work together. The interpersonal relationships between various party leaders are terrible. And I think you saw a bit of that manifest through the lack of communication that resulted in Mr. Singh, Mr. Scheer, Mr. Trudeau all giving their speeches last night at the same time. I think we all kind of had our jaw drop. That is not normal in any way. And so I am going to be fascinated, I think, to see how these parties are able to work together, particularly after I mean, the relationship wasn't great going into the campaign, but this campaign was like, no insult was spared. No dirty tactic was was not employed. It was not a pretty kind of six weeks, especially where kind of trying to disparage the other guys factored so heavily into, I think, the final outcome and some of the final messaging as well. So I don't know what it's going to look like or how it's going to work. But you're right, it's very necessary in order for it to continue.

LL: I just want to ask you this briefly, Vassy, what about the future of Andrew Scheer?

VASSY KAPELOS: It's difficult to know exactly what this result. And I think there was a recognition and implicit recognition from Mr. Scheer in his speech last night that there will be and there are questions over his leadership in the way that he framed the message he delivered. It was very Hillary Clinton asked message in that we won the popular vote. We grew our number of seats. And now we're the government in waiting. Yes, of course, you're going to put a positive spin on it. But I know from speaking to people in his inner circle, they are fully aware of the questions surrounding his leadership. I think Shachi hit the nail on the head when she said that there are there were missed opportunities in this campaign and a lot of people in the party are looking squarely at him in his leadership when they think about those missed opportunities. I don't know who the person in waiting is, though. I don't know if they want to embark on that kind of a thing, given the tenuous situation of the government right now. I think it will depend on a lot of factors. But I also know that there are genuine questions about the way in which he led this campaign and his future at the helm of the party.

LL: Shachi, I want your input on share, but also to talk about how you see this parliament functioning or not going forward.

SHACHI KURL: Well, coming back to Mr. Scheer, of course, the big question now is whether the Conservative Party and whether the conservative movement. We just talked about how there was an opportunity for the party to pivot to the centre and perhaps find a path to victory. That's gone now. The constituency that whomever is leading the conservatives has to represent and has to reflect is a very angry, very frustrated, very disillusioned constituency, really made up of two provinces that have already openly mused. People in those provinces have mused about saying, well, you know, the West wants a better deal. The West is, you know, may consider leaving Canada. These rumblings are often dismissed in terms of their practical effect. Is Alberta really going to separate? No. But does it speak to a really deep seated feeling that these are parts of the country, especially in terms of their economic output and what they're offering in terms of population growth and other, that is not being recognized for what they're giving to confederation? So how do you do both? How do you pivot to the centre and also keep a really grassroots fired up base onside? And does it actually as a party, as a Pan National Party survive in this particular structure? Or do we start to see the rise of another and the rumblings again of a rise of a west? Canadian party. I think that's a big part of what Andrew Scheer needs to figure out, and that's the circle he has to square. In terms of the working together. Gosh. Like I am at the best of times not exactly a glass half full person, but I have to wonder, is there an opportunity here for one of these leaders to surprise us pleasantly in terms of practicing some state craft, in terms of extending the olive branch and being the bigger leader here and reaching across the divide? I don't see it, but hey, hope springs eternal.

LL: Daniel, 30d seconds left. Last word to you. Do you think that this parliament can actually work?

DANIEL BELAND: Yes, I think so. And for I think the main reason is that Canadians don't want to go back to the polls anytime soon. We know that. The parties know that. And I think that there is a strong incentive on the part of party leaders. Actually, some party leaders say, Jagmeet Singh and Justin Trudeau, to work together and to make sure that this minority government last longer enough so that Canadians don't punish them for going back to the polls early on.

LL: Daniel, we're going to have to leave it there. Great discussion. Thanks to all three of you for coming in. Thank you. I was speaking with Shachi Kurl of Angus Reid, Vassy Kapelos, host of CBC Power and Politics, and Daniel Beland, director of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada. Well, the CBC News is next. Then there were a few upsets last night, including the defeat of conservative deputy leader Lisa Raitt in Milton, Ontario.

SOUNDCLIP

We fought them street by street, house by house. But Miltonians have spoken. And quite frankly, the voter always gets it right.

LL: We will convene a panel of ex MPs to analyze the results. I'm Laura Lynch. You are listening to The Current.

Elizabeth May says questions about her political future are 'trivial' in face of climate change

Guests: Elizabeth May, Gerry Ritz, Allan Rock, Olivia Chow

LL: Hello, I'm Laura Lynch, and you're listening to The Current.

[Music: Theme]

SOUNDCLIP

VOICE 1: I'm glad it's not conservatives or the PPC.

VOICE 2: Minority governments are usually very ineffective. I think the NDP and the Greens are going to push the policy narrative. I think they're transmitting pipeline and probably get cancelled, which is a bad thing.

VOICE 3: I'm not happy, but I think I'm more happy than I would be if there was like a conservative majority or even conservative minority without a coalition government or something like that. Yes.

LL: Mixed reviews of last night's election results on the streets of Vancouver and Halifax last night. In half an hour, we'll look at the minority government from very different vantage points, from the oil industry to the environmental movement to Canada's biggest city. But first election night from people who had been there.

[Music: Theme]

LL: My next guests have felt firsthand the pressures of a federal election campaign. Collectively, they won about a dozen campaigns and served almost four decades in the House of Commons. Allan Rock was a Liberal MP from 1993 to 2003. He held several cabinet posts, including Justice Minister and Minister of Health. He's in our Ottawa studio. Olivia Chow served as an NDP MP from 2006 to 2014. She is with me here in our Toronto studio. And Gerry Ritz was an MP from 1997 to 2017, first with the Reform Party and later as a conservative, including eight years as minister of agriculture. He's in our Regina's studio. Welcome, everyone.

ALLAN ROCK: Good morning.

GERRY RITZ: Good morning,.

OLIVIA CHOW: Good morning.

LL: Everybody did you get enough sleep last night?

GERRY RITZ: No.

LL: Okay good. We're off to a good start.

GERRY RITZ: That wasn't on the agenda.

LL: Allan Rock, let's start with you. Is a minority government, for Justin Trudeau, a victory or a rebuke?

ALLAN ROCK: Well, I think someone said earlier this morning that all the parties lost, and I think that that's probably true. Obviously, there was a message here for all the leaders. The liberals, I think, are chastened by having lost their majority. But at the same time, I think it's a strong minority. And I think there are the fixings here, which I hope we discuss of mixing and matching support in the House of Commons to achieve good things. It's not true that that minority governments are inherently unproductive. Mr. Pearson showed in the 1960s just what can be achieved. And I think given the personality of Jagmeet Singh, given the number of progressive MPPs between the NDP, the Bloc and the Liberals, I think we have the fixings here for a parliament that can work for at least two years and perhaps longer.

LL: Olivia Chow, there's Allan Rock being very, very fourth. The young statesman like offering the olive branch to the NDP. What the NDP think of that idea?

OLIVIA CHOW: Well, last night, yesterday, two out of three voters said yes to progressive values. They said, yes to working together. And I think that message is so clear that I hope every members of parliament or every leader, including the Greens, because they have three seats now, would work together and make people's lives better because at the end of the day that's what we really should be there, you know, the MP should be there for. So picking up where Allan's left off. It is absolutely true. If you think about all the things that made us proud as Canadians always security came in the 20s in a minority government/ Canada Pension Plan, Medicare that came from the 60s in a minority government. Layton Martin during those times in 2004 minority government, it was the same sex marriage bill, the investment in public transit and housing, indigenous communities and post-secondary education etc. So the message needs to be really clear to all those elected is that please, please work together.

LL: Gerry Ritz It sounds like the Conservatives have just been written off as irrelevant to the process and they won the popular vote. Did Trudeau win the election or did Andrews here?

GERRY RITZ: I think we'll see in the coming days. As Allan Rock said, the comment was made, everybody lost. Certainly the Singh surge kind of fizzled out. The Bloc bounce that we were supposed to see didn't really happen. So there's a lot of factors at play here. The popular vote is one thing, but at the end of the day, it still comes down to how many seats you've got. This is a divided country and it's going to be tough in a minority situation to try and take that into perspective. There's no longer a government side representative in either Saskatchewan, Alberta, unless the new Liberal member in Edmonton is going to become a minister of some level to take that on. I don't see that happening. I think Mr. Trudeau has been chastised somewhat. I think the first few meetings he's going to do on the international stage will be very interested in how he handles himself with some of the things coming out of this election. It's anybody's guess as to how long this is going to last. I think we're probably good for a couple of years. I think there'll be a leadership race or two in the middle of all of that. We'll have to see how that plays out.

LL: Yes, well, what about your leader?

GERRY RITZ: I think Andrew's pretty strong. I mean, you don't win the popular vote in the country and you get pushed out. We're up. You know, some 22 seats. That's pretty good. That's 20 percent from where we were. You know, the Liberals are down 28. That's down, you know, that same 20 percent. So, I mean, he did extremely well for a first time out of the gate, a brand new leader. I have no problem saying Andrew should stay there for the next one. Certainly, if it comes sooner rather than later, that would be the right course of action. It's going to come down to raising money and getting people focussed again. That's going to be difficult with this divisions that we see that are getting deeper entrenched across this great nation.

LL: Allan Rock. Gerry writes. Points out the obvious thing about this election result is that it is quite the country seems quite balkanized. You have no liberals in either Alberta or Saskatchewan. You really do see that there is a difficult path forward to unite the country. What will Justin Trudeau have to do?

ALLAN ROCK: Well, it is worrying not having representation in the government from Saskatchewan and Alberta, particularly at this time when feelings are running so high about whether the importance of those provinces to the federation is truly appreciated. The Prime Minister's going to have to find a way to ensure that they have a voice at the table. And he's going to have to, I think, spend some time appealing directly to Canadians in those provinces, telling them that indeed they are on the government's agenda. That's one of the worries I have about the result last night. I have two others. First of all, the re-emergence of the Bloc. Very cleverly done, they have taken the CAC formula, federal, stressing nationalism. But we should be in no doubt that the Bloc is a sovereignties party, and that's always lurking in the background. And the Bloc is going to have to be managed by the national government to ensure that we don't give them an issue.

LL: The Bloc is denying that sovereignty is an issue for them right now.

ALLAN ROCK: Well, they're downplaying sovereignty as the cac did, because it's not in fashion at the moment. But don't fool yourself that 20 percent to 30 percent support for sovereignty is always there. The other thing that worries me is what this means for foreign policy in Canada on the international stage. It's very hard to engage internationally when your focus is on being in the House of Commons to make sure you win the next vote. I was in New York as ambassador to the UN when there was a minority government in Ottawa. Can't tell you the number of times ministers had to cancel visits or speeches because they were needed in the House for a vote. Where a candidate for the Security Council. We hope to have an impact internationally. I think this minority result weakens us in that regard. And we're going to have to make special efforts to ensure that our voice is still heard.

OLIVIA CHOW: We are weakened already because successive governments, Mr. Trudeau, in fact, is now contributing less to foreign aid than Mr. Harper has. Remembered. Pearson 0.7percent. But we now at 0.2two. But what are we not going to do?

LL: Okay. Without going to go down that path too much. Talk to me about how concerned you are about the division in the country, Olivia Chow.

OLIVIA CHOW: I've seen that before, but the Bloc tends to do well when show democracy is weak. When new Democrats are weak. And when new Democrats are strong the Bloc, then you get a lot weaker. So you've seen that up and down. And I think the message is that let's give social democracy a real chance to be successful. Then it makes it harder for the bloc to be successful. If the government, if the national government is doing the right thing. I think in some ways that a lot of Quebecois were very disappointed on the environmental crisis front, climate crisis as a result, they're looking for an alternative. That's how the Bloc became stronger.

LL: Gerry Ritz, I just want to ask you briefly, you've been in cabinet and both minority and majority governments under Stephen Harper. What's the biggest difference in terms of how you govern.

GERRY RITZ: Day to day operations. The other thing I think it would be interesting to point out is it's going to be fun to watch the non-partisanship of the Senate in the next little while. They're going to have to step up and be the voice in bold, Saskatchewan and Alberta, for that matter, and probably a portion of Quebec now with the Bloc there, trying to bring stability to the region. So there are their positions are all of a sudden a lot more important to the governing liberals than they were before. And I think we'll have to see some partisanship more so than we just saw in the votes and so on like that, but in actual movement of legislation and so on. In a minority parliament, there are times when you want to move a piece of legislation into the Senate first and then bring it to the House to get all about out of the way. So we'll start to see that then. You used a lot more. It's everything's case by case. You know, there's a lot more parties and planning meetings, a lot more cabinet meetings, a lot of cabinet committee meetings and so on, trying to move a piece through and a lot of negotiations and discussions with House leaders and the whips of of all the parties.

LL: All right. I just want to pause our discussion for a moment, because we've actually reached the leader of the Green Party. Elizabeth May. There was talk of a possible breakthrough for the party in this election. Pollsters were seeing possibly that the party could win five or six seats at the end of the night. The number was three. Elizabeth May is in Sydney, B.C. Hello. Congratulations on your re-election.

ELIZABETH MAY: Thanks, Laura.

LL: How are you doing?

ELIZABETH MAY: Well, it's a lot early and British. I'm really glad to be talking to The Current.

LL: How would you characterize what happened last night?

ELIZABETH MAY: Well, I think for the country, it's a very strange result. Certainly for the Greens, we advanced far more than parties that are now being congratulated. Let's face it, in 2015, it was really much harder. We only elected re-elected my own seat and no one else joined me in parliament. It's always very, very much harder for the Greens in the first past the post voting system and we just achieved yesterday's result that no other Green Party in first half the post has yet achieved in tripling the number of seats we'd had last time.

LL: So yes, it stand. Your party's popular vote in this election was somewhat shy of what it was in 2008. Does that suggest your party has reached a ceiling?

ELIZABETH MAY: Not at all. I mean, apparent in mind this is double the result we had in 2015. The situation for a party that is- Well, I mean, we'll just have to see how we continue to grow. But right now, as I said, in parties, Green parties, around the world have done extremely well. And in a fair voting systems such as in most of Europe, in New Zealand and so on. In the first past, the post voting system. I guess our closest colleagues in terms of the struggle are those in in the Parliament of Westminster, in the UK. And one of the most popular and well respected members of Parliament, Caroline Lucas, as we we've been so disappointed time after time when Greens in the UK and Wales have been unable to add additional seats. We have obviously had a really significant change in our in our electoral success in electing Jenica Atwin in Fredericton as well as, of course, Paul Manley seat in Nanaimo-Ladysmith. And normally, if it had only been one for the first time in a by election on May 6 of this year that the NDP threw everything they had. Let's be clear. Hundreds of thousands of dollars were spent by the new Democrats in all of Vancouver Island to try to defeat me and to try to defeat Paul Manley. It was a much harder election than we faced before.

LL: Ms. May, what role do you see your party playing with his three seats in parliament, given the divisive nature of this election and a minority government?

ELIZABETH MAY: Well, what's really significant, of course, is what anyone is able to do in the current situation with the climate emergency. No other party put forward a platform that was close to what's required by science and by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. But the Liberals pretended they did. So our job in the next parliament is to actually hold the Liberals to account. They told people, if you want climate action, you have to vote liberal. Well, on the evidence, if you want climate inaction, you can continue to vote liberal.

LL: But what will you do in parliament? Will you work with the Liberals?

ELIZABETH MAY: Well, it's hard to know how we could, given that their current plan is one that leads to climate catastrophe. So what we have to do is hold them to account. They won votes by telling voters, if you vote liberal, you'll see climate action. Our job is to be as to continue to be what we have been in the last number of years, the conscience of parliament and certainly on climate emergency as we've run out of time to make the difference that needs to be made. We have as as the three Green MPs, and I think we'll be aided in this by Jody Wilson-Raybould, who also won her seat. We have to be absolutely resolute that continuing to give lip service to the climate crisis without changing our direction and changing our policies is not only inadequate. It's an abdication of responsibility.

LL: Ms. May, what about you personally? You've been leader of the party since 2006, an MP since 2011. Are you thinking about your own future this morning, possibly handing over the reins?

ELIZABETH MAY: I'm thinking about the planet's future, thinking about my grandchildren's future.

LL: What about yours?

ELIZABETH MAY: My future, rather, rides with that of my children and grandchildren.

LL: The political future.

ELIZABETH MAY: Political future, gee Laura. I'm sorry, but that's rather a small question compared to what do we do as a society that has- Now we are in a minority parliament. We have to demand of all members of parliament that they live up to the demands that are required of us by science. Political futures are rather trivial questions. I'm sorry.

LL: Elizabeth May, thank you and congratulations on your victory again.

ELIZABETH MAY: Thank you.

LL: Elizabeth May is the leader of the Green Party of Canada. She's in Sydney, B.C. Let's go around the table here quickly. Olivia Chow, what did you think of what she had to say? Especially about what your party. She says your party did on Vancouver Island to her.

OLIVIA CHOW: Can we not replay the election and think about what we can accomplish together. I think one to first thing that if the liberals' government would cancel the oil and gas subsidies and take that funds and invest in green technology, for example. There are some concrete things that would benefit Canadians whether to support the retrofitting houses so they can burn less and pay less. And there are lots of things that can be done and set better targets, for example. And yes, I oppose when we need to and call people out when we need to. But if there is an opportunity in the house to actually have concrete suggestions, let's also do that.

LL: And Allan, rock band, over to you because Olivia Chow is talking about building bridges after some have been damaged in this last election. That's partly by rhetoric and practice. How do you expect Justin Trudeau to go about doing that to make sure he has the support of the NDP and perhaps the Greens going forward?

ALLAN ROCK: Well, it's going to be a matter of negotiation, but on the big ticket items, pharmacare, climate, climate policy, housing, I think there's a lot of commonality between the Liberals and the NDP and the Bloc for that matter. I can imagine discussions between the bloc and the NDP about what's going to be on the wish list when they come to talk about pharmacare, for example. So I think that there are going to be bridges built and I don't think it's going to be as difficult as it has been in other minority parliaments. Let's also look at some good news that came from last night. The repudiation of Bernier and the People's Party of Canada. He even lost his own riding, which was wonderful news. The fact that climate change is now seen as, you know, the principal issue for Canadians. We have their attention and the stage is set for meaningful action.

LL: Well, but that brings up, Alan Rock, the one thing you didn't mention when you talked about cooperation, which is the Trans Mountain pipeline.

ALLAN ROCK: Well, I don't think that first of all, that doesn't need approval by parliament. That's an executive decision. And if it comes to a confidence vote, then I think that the Tories will support the Liberals on building that pipeline.

LL: And full steam ahead on the pipeline.

OLIVIA CHOW: But it needs a lot more money. Right. Buying the pipelines one thing and then you have to build that building. It is close to 11 billion dollars. That's those on top of the 4.5 billion. That's a lot of money that we can spend on affordable housing or green technologies, for example.

LL: Here you hear you hear the mass cynicism of minority government, Allan Rock.

ALLAN ROCK: Yeah, it's yeah, it's true. But I think that the federal government's commitment to that pipeline is clear. I think it is going to proceed and I think it'll have the support in the House.

LL: Gerry, Ritz, I'm wondering what you think as you hear Allan Rock saying the conservatives will come onboard with us when it comes to a pipeline.

GERRY RITZ: Quite a good chuckle. It's great. Thank you. Well, I'm fully awake. Next election starts now. You know, the armies of people that it took to put this one on a course will be bigger and more vocal next time. All of the candidates have put their name forward. Need a huge pat on the back. A lot of people are discouraged this morning. But, you know, at the end of the day, this is what democracy is all about, having your say, but not necessarily having your way. It's going to be an interesting ride for the next little while. Part of the bridging that needs to be built isn't just between the pit parties that sit in the House of Commons and the senators, it's to the provinces. And we've got a major divide there as well, not just regionally in this country, but across this country. We're seeing huge divides. And if there's a pot of money that mysteriously appeared after the election last night, it's gonna be divvied up in pharmacare and all kinds of things. These are provincial jurisdictions. Housing is provincial jurisdiction. So there's a tremendous amount of bridge work that needs to be done to that level. And you know, that's a that's a big job all by itself.

LL: Allan, Gerry raises a good point. Here is how does the how does this minority government is going to relate to the provincial governments who are in some cases adamantly opposed to his agenda?

ALLAN ROCK: Well, that was true when the Liberals had a majority as well.

LL: But now there are minority.

ALLAN ROCK: There's no question about it. It's going to be a tricky negotiation, particularly on issues like pharmacare. You know, Gerry, you mentioned pharmacare is a provincial jurisdiction, but so was health care. And the Canada Health Act has been in place for decades.

GERRY RITZ: Are we talking about bulk buying, Allan? Nobody buying.

LL: Well, let Allan finish let me then I'll come to you.

ALLAN ROCK: I'm asking to see this very broad support for pharmacare in this country, a strong support. I mean, a strong argument to justify an investment in pharmacare. And I think it would be a courageous provincial government that stood in the way of a big national undertaking like it.

LL: I'm just going to let Olivia get in them I'll come to you.

OLIVIA CHOW: OA Security, Canada pension plan, Medicare, all of those on national program. And, yes, healthcare is provincial but the federal government has the money and it has to have the courage to have a legislative mandate to put it in the act, to say this is what we are as Canadians. It's about time we do that. We haven't done that since the 90s. And every time the federal government step back, the province step up more and more and more. And one other thing. So I think for the sake of our country, we need to unify ourselves and say that national program is good and you can do it through financial incentive and legislature.

LL: Gerry.

GERRY RITZ: I think that alone the top down attitude is what's going to stop the provinces dead because they're not going to give an inch on this file when they want this and this and this. On the other hand, indigenous rights are going to start to work into a lot of these discussions as well. And, you know, there's a tremendous amount of energy that it takes to govern a country. It takes twice as many, twice as much energy, twice as many people to make a minority parliament work. So it's going to be a wild ride for the next year for sure, until this sort of shakes out the first throne speech, first budget. We'll have to wait and see if Mr. Trudeau decides to take a walk in the snow or stick around. And I think he'll be the first leader out.

LL: Okay. That's a bold prediction. Listen, let's just go around the table here. Quickly, I want to ask each of you with your sage old advice and your experience. And Allan, we're going to start with you. I want you to tell me what your immediate advice would be to Justin Trudeau.

ALLAN ROCK: Well, I think the attitude should be conciliatory. I think there's room for humility. I think that an olive branch, particularly to the NDP, it would be very much called for. And the Greens, of course. I think also looking for common ground with the NDP on pharmacare and other, and climate action is important.

LL: We're running out of time here. Gerry Ritz, what would you have to say at Andrew Scheer?

GERRY RITZ: I'll just be calm. You know, these things will work themselves out. This is just the beginning of the next stage. It's not a closing of the chapter by any means.

LL: And Olivia Chow, what would you have this thing to Jagmeet Singh today?

OLIVIA CHOW: Stay strong, stay courageous and be kind and compassionate. And remember to people that have very little voices and just be flexible and keep pushing for them.

LL: All right. All three of you. I thank you so much for coming in and talking to us about what is ahead based on what you know from the past. Thanks very much.

ALLAN ROCK: Thanks.

GERRY RITZ: Pleasure.

OLIVIA CHOW: Thank you.

LL: I've been speaking with three former members of parliament. Liberal Allan Rock was the justice minister and minister of health and Jean Chretien's cabinet. He was in our Ottawa studio. Conservative Gerry Ritz was a minister of agriculture under Stephen Harper. He was in our Regina's studio. And Olivia Chow served as an NDP MP from 2006 to 2014. She's with me in our Toronto studio. And coming up.

SOUNDCLIP

Justin Trudeau should learn a lesson he shouldn't rule without considering engaging and working with peoples all across the country who feel quite disenfranchised.

LL: We will check in with some of the people who feel disenfranchised in our next half hour. I'm Laura Lynch. You are listening to The Current.

Election reactions

Guests: David Yager, Tzeporah Berman, Yudhvir Jaswar

LL: I'm Laura Lynch, and you're listening to The Current.

SOUNDCLIP

VOICE: Lately, I've been voting conservative just because, you know, we live in Alberta and I think conservatives can do more for Alberta. I was hoping for, you know, Andrew Shears to win because we need a new blood once in a while. As much as I love the environment and I think for Alberta, we need that pipeline.

LL: That voter is certainly not alone in his sentiments in Alberta. It was almost a sweep for the conservatives there. And a key issue in that campaign was energy policy, the carbon tax, pipelines and the future of the oil industry, some in western Canada have even worn national unity would be at stake if Justin Trudeau was re-elected. David Yager is a former oil executive who's been involved in the industry for five decades. He's the author of From Miracle to Menace: Alberta A Carbon Story. And he is in Calgary. Hello.

DAVID YAGER: Good morning.

LL: Let's start by asking you for your reaction to the election results.

DAVID YAGER: I know it's hard to say it could have been worse, I guess, is one way to look at it. I mean, and you have to understand how discouraging the debate was. I don't believe in Canadian history there's ever been a campaign fought, where as an Alberta oil worker, for example, that the future of civilization depends upon you losing your house, your car, your job, your company. And there's no part of Canada's ever been subjected to this. We've had energy debates in the past back in the early 80s under Justin Senior, Justin's father. We had a fight over energy. But of course, there was a wealth distribution, not wealth annihilation.

LL: Well, we know that the difference. This time was the climate change being such a big issue for so many people?

DAVID YAGER: And it was. And so it is. But again, that's why I wrote the book, because the science is settled. Let me define the science. The science says is that the chemical composition of the atmosphere has been changed by the addition of too much greenhouse gases and carbon dioxide. So stabilizing the climate is going to cause this to peak. So we can't do that in Alberta. You cannot annihilate Alberta's oil industry and save the world.

LL: So what do you think a minority government led by Justin Trudeau will mean for your industry?

DAVID YAGER: We were hoping a switch would put Canada back on the map as we're the fifth largest hydrocarbon producing jurisdiction in the world on a barrel of oil equivalent basis. Probably one of Canada's best kept secret. So right now, the over the last five years, the international investors have been avoiding Canada for a multitude of reasons, which we've been talking about them for a month. And we were hoping there would be a change in that. There'll be no change there. And so the idea there's going to be a material improvement went out the window with the vote last night. If we did change, governments were going to change attitudes. Beyond that, we'll have to see what he does.

LL: Do you think that the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion will ever get built?

DAVID YAGER: There's two pipelines out there. There's the political issue, the one on the front page, which is more of an idea. It's almost like a symbol of something. And then there's a buried piece of steel carrying oil. We may get the former because being done with somebody else's money, whether the pipeline will carry oil, ever since the government bought it, there's been some doubt about that. I'm sure we're going to hear a double resolved by many that this thing will incompleted. Let me say, just explain what that means. There's something called the last mile in the pipeline business. You can build a whole darn thing, but unless it's completely connected and carrying oil, it's worthless. When the government bought the pipeline, the risk was transferred from the private sector to the public sector using other people's money. I can see building the pipeline or continuing to pretend to build the pipeline or we support TMX as a symbol. But whether or not that pipeline will ever carry a barrel of oil, I think there's a great deal of scepticism still in Alberta and didn't improve last night.

LL: There's a lot of bitterness in your voice.

DAVID YAGER: I'm just reflecting my fellow Albertans again. I must see the [unintelligible]. I Grew up in the country, probably visited the whole thing, and then a gate to see the people say, well, but the world will be a better place the day me, my friends and my provinces was economically destroyed. That's a tough pill to swallow. When the world is still buying oil- This is symbolism. This is virtue signalling. When Jean Chretien signed Kyoto in 1997 world oil production was in 73 million barrels a day. It's now 40 percent higher. And so there's virtue signalling and sleeping better tonight. And then there's actually solving the problem. And what we're experiencing in Canada is virtue signalling disguised as solving the problem. So to wipe out Alberta's oil industry, three million barrels a day in 100 million barrels a day world, so you can sleep better in Montreal, Vancouver and Toronto. I'm sorry, it's discouraging.

LL: In his speech last night, Justin Trudeau talked directly to Canadians in western provinces that didn't elect a single line liberal. Listen to this.

SOUNDCLIP

JUSTIN TRUDEAU: And to Canadians in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Know that you are an essential part of our great country. I've heard your frustration and I want to be there to support you. Let us all work hard to bring our country together.

[Cheers]

LL: How's that going over with you?

DAVID YAGER: It's encouraging. He does that a lot. Perhaps Toronto, where they were going to have less guns, too. We'll see how that works. Look, I'm hoping that we have been told for the past four years, ever since he cancelled a Northern Gateway ran on that at the 2015 election that the Liberal Party was successful where that were Harper failed. The Conservatives could not get a pipe to Tidewater. We've been talking about a non-existent pipeline for four years. He's got a lot riding on it, his political reputation. I'm hoping that he- I think it's very difficult for him to reverse it. We'll have to see what he actually does, what happens in the House of Commons. So the idea that he might finish it is encouraging. The prior people on the panel noted that if a vote comes up in the House of Commons, the Conservatives are unlikely to vote against it. So I think the concept of the pipeline, the spending of the government money to dig some ditch and bury some pipe lives on. But the pipe has to carry oil.

LL: Right.

DAVID YAGER: And then I'm sorry. It's early.

LL: I hear you.

DAVID YAGER: I'm doing the best I can.

LL: I hear what you're saying? There's been a lot of discussion, too, about Western alienation and separatists sentiment, including from your premier, Jason Kenney. What concerns do you have about national unity?

DAVID YAGER: This will be this is what the people that are determined to make more noise are looking for. There was there was a - they call it separatism. I don't know what they call it, Quebec separatism that actually went anywhere. What we have what we've experienced in Alberta as well, I classify as constitutional mutiny. And the whole concept the of the economic union and the political union is the free transportation of goods across the country. And Quebec has committed constitutional - selective constitutional mutiny. They've said we're not going to have any pipe carrying your filthy oil, but the equalization is what is enshrined in the constitution itself.

LL: Does that lead us closer, though, to a threat to national unity?

DAVID YAGER: Absolutely. We'll take the mine. You get the shaft. Same thing as British Columbia. British Columbia said, well, we're not building any stinking [unintelligible] carry any more oil through here. So they took every step they could to block the pipeline. And then when Alberta said, well, look, you hate oil, well, shut it off. Then they went back to court, say, don't you dare shut it off. The position of our neighbours, of the provinces that are giving us access to Tidewater take it off the US low price model is again, is disingenuous. It's hypocritical. We ban tankers on the West Coast because that's good for votes. And Quebec brings tankers oil down the St. Lawrence River. I don't see the St. Lawrence River being materially more pristine than the West Pacific Coast. Really, really confusing. If you live here in Alberta and you looked round, we find it to be a lot more political. Very, very regional. I think if you look at the 35 percent of the votes they live in three major centres, Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal. I don't think the Conservatives won a single seat in those areas. It was downtown Toronto that decided the election last night.

LL: So, David Yager, I appreciate you getting up so early and coming in. Thank you.

DAVID YAGER: I think you're picking up what I'm weighing down.

LL: I got it.

DAVID YAGER: Good morning, Canada.

LL: David Yager is an energy industry analyst and a former oilfield executive. He's in Calgary. Let's get a different perspective on the election results. Tzeporah Berman is a long-time environmental activist and the international program director of Stand.Earth. She's up early, too. She's in Vancouver. Hello.

TZEPORAH BERMAN: Hello.

LL: Hi. What's your reaction to the results?

TZEPORAH BERMAN: You know, it was a very interesting election on climate change. The fact is that the majority of Canadians voted for strong climate action. Most people voted for parties that want to see more action on climate. The Liberals lost a majority and they now have an opportunity to work together with other parties to tackle the climate crisis, to take bigger steps. And the fact is, the prime minister Trudeau does not have absolute power for a majority vote. And there's a number of areas where that could have a big impact on the future of our country. For example, on the budgets. He's going to need the Bloc and the NDP and the and the Greens and they all had stronger climate plans.

LL: Now, you heard David Digger there. No small measure of self-admitted bitterness on his part. What do you say to people like him who think this election means devastation for Alberta?

TZEPORAH BERMAN: The fact is, over the last five years, production of oil has increased, but jobs have gone down and the amount of royalties coming in from oil companies to the governments have gone down. The amount of subsidies, tax payers dollars that are going to these oil companies has gone up considerably. The world is moving away from high carbon, high cost oil. And the world, is moving quickly to address climate change. So what that means is that we need a plan and I think we are more likely to get a plan now. We need a plan that's going to be for all of Canada. And I think the job of this government is to chart a path forward. And that means overcoming, you know, the fear mongering that we've been hearing in Alberta. People are scared and they're rightly scared because this change isn't going to be easy, but it's possible. And there are more jobs in clean energy and safer jobs for the country. And Canadians know that. If you look at the polls, you know, 77 percent of Canadians in it say that they strongly or partially agree that the world is facing a climate emergency. The majority say we need to shift to clean energy. So I think we need to see some serious investments in Alberta, Saskatchewan and British Columbia, clean energy so people can realize across the country that we have a common purpose and that's to fight climate change and shift our economy.

LL: Is your comfort level, though, with the fact that the government is still the Liberals who pledged to go forward with the Trans Mountain pipeline, and they probably can get the support of the conservatives to do just that?

TZEPORAH BERMAN: They probably can. But there's the issue of what's in the budget. Let's be clear that this is now a tax payer expenditure, billions of dollars. And increasingly, it's looking like a project that's not making money right now and it probably won't in the future.

LL: Are you suggesting, that if it comes to a budget measure, then the Greens and perhaps the Bloc and perhaps the NDP would all come together and vote the government down?

TZEPORAH BERMAN: I don't think so. And I know certainly that remains to be seen, but I think that even the Liberals are going to have to take a serious look at what this means for our budget in the future. This is a project that was predicated on an 85 dollar barrel of oil, and that's not when anyone's predicting for the years to come. It was also predicated on oil demand levels that are no longer there. Demand is soft because 10 countries in the world have banned the fossil fuel cars since that project was proposed. So oil demand is changing. The world is changing very quickly to electrification and renewable energy. And our economy is going to have to change with it. And the fact is, in this election, we saw a lot of serious climate champions elected. Steven Guilbeault in Quebec, three Green Party MPs. These shifts are. But it wasn't it isn't just, you know, who was elected. It's also how they were elected and the shift in public opinion. Climate change over the last several months has become one of the most important issues to Canadians. 500,000 people marched in Quebec during the election, almost a million across the country.

LL: Why didn't that translate into more seats for the Greens and the NDP?

TZEPORAH BERMAN: I think because what we saw was a fear vote. A lot of people who understand the threat of climate change also understood that we had very little action, if any, over a decade as a result of the Harper government. And so people were scared. And I think we saw that in this election. But I do think that in a lot of ways we are in a better position now because this is a minority government. They don't have absolute power. And they have the urgency that we're now seeing in Canada on the streets. I mean, this these climate strikes have changed the debate. That's the bottom line. Our children are scared. And people in Canada, across the country, whether you live in Alberta or British Columbia or Quebec, are seeing the impacts of climate change. We are spending so much money as a country, billions of dollars now on floods, on fires, on emergency measures. And unfortunately, that looks like it's only going to increase in the years to come. And so more and more people want climate action. And I think the debate has shifted now to what's the plan and how fast.

LL: Zeporah Breman what is your greatest hope for this new minority parliament and your greatest fear?

TZEPORAH BERMAN: My greatest hope is that we will move quickly as many of the parties have committed to end fossil fuel subsidies. We're giving billions of dollars and taxpayers dollars right now to the oil and gas industry to build more infrastructure. And we need to turn that around. We need to use that money in Canada for Canadians for cleaner, safer jobs and just transition for workers. We need to use that money for clean energy infrastructure. We need to have a conversation now about how we end the expansion of oil and gas and how we ensure that we do that in a way that's going to have a strong economy for everybody. And I think we're going to see that. And on Trans Mountain.

LL: And your greatest fear?

TZEPORAH BERMAN: Well, I guess my greatest fear would be that this government does not have the courage to see that they made a huge mistake on Trans Mountain and also on LNG Canada. At this moment in history, we can't be building more fossil fuel infrastructure. It's not good for our economy and it's certainly not good for us in terms of ensuring a safe climate for our kids.

LL: All right, Zeporah Berman, thank you very much.

TZEPORAH BERMAN: Thank you.

LL: Zeporah Berman is a climate activist and the international program director of Stand.Earth. She's in Vancouver. As we canvass reaction to the election across the country, indigenous Canadians also have a lot at stake. Niigaan Sinclair is a columnist with the Winnipeg Free Press and an associate professor in the Department of Native Studies at the University of Manitoba.

SOUNDCLIP

NIIGAAN SINCLAIR: The indigenous peoples resoundingly rejected Justin Trudeau en masse. There is a real issue around the ways that indigenous peoples view the way the government is currently acting in relation to the creation of more and more bureaucracy. The creation of more and more control. The fact that the Indian act is still in place. And when indigenous people speak out on those issues, when they attempt to engage those issues, they're either tossed out of cabinet, which is the case of Jody Wilson-Raybould. While I think they talk a good game, the way that the liberals deliver indigenous policies in this country is very much draconian, the same kind of practices and procedures we've seen for a hundred and fifty years. And the real stark issue is that the federal government going to be taking indigenous children to court yet again in contravention of the Human Rights Tribunal decision. That is an egregious and disgusting decision in which, while they acknowledge that the indigenous children should be receiving compensation, what are they going to do now? How do you continue to take children to court time and time again? and particularly in a minority parliament, how do you engage that conversation with other parties? And will the NDP support that?

LL: Niigaan Sinclair reacting to the election results from Winnipeg. And finally, we go to a key region where elections are won and lost in the suburban belt around the city of Toronto, commonly known by its area code The 9 0 5, the population is diverse and growing fast. And during the campaign, it caught a lot of love from all of the leaders. Joining me now is someone with deep insight into the region and the issues facing it. Yudhvir Jaswal hosts the popular radio program South Asian Pulse. He is the group editor and CEO of Y Media in Mississauga, and he's with me here in our Toronto studio. Hello.

YUDHVIR JASWAR: Hello. Thank you so much for the invite.

LL: There are a lot of liberal incumbents and hanging onto their seats in the greater Toronto area. Why weren't the conservatives able to break through?

YUDHVIR JASWAR: I think they didn't offer anything new. The Conservative Party leader, Andrew Scheer, I mean, he did offer quite a few things, but I think they didn't really resonate well. I didn't see anything new. I did interview Andrew Scheer and I did ask him a straight question that why won't you offer anything new? Did you offer a high before the GTA? The answer was no. The other thing was the Ford factor as well. I did interview both of them. So when I did interview Doug Ford, I did ask him that, Premier, why won't you campaign? He said, I have enough on my plate. And when I asked the same question, do Andrew Scheer he would say, yes, Doug Ford is busy with his own stuff in Ontario. What you're bringing Jason Kenney all the way from Alberta and asked him that. He said, yes, because Jason Kenney knows these things. I mean, he had 23 events here in GTA. But these things didn't resonate well. So precisely that was the reason.

LL: But would you diagnose the vote result in The 905 as a vote for the Liberals or was it just a vote against something else? How do you read the result?

YUDHVIR JASWAR: I think it was a combination of both the factors. Liberal Party and incumbent MPs they already had built abolition. I mean, you're obviously campaigning right from day one that you get elected. So they had the relation to build. Yes, there was a little bit of an end incumbency. I mean, look at the last one and a half year. India tour went wrong. Then you had this anti Loveland issue and then you had the blackface, brownface.

LL: Exactly.

YUDHVIR JASWAR: But despite all these, you know, the message that the conservatives send and goes nothing new wouldn't resonate well. And then I discussed with many of the guys on my TV shows, on my radio show them and the callers would calling. They were always saying this is a Ford factor, he is. I said, you know what? This is a provincial issue and now there is a fair election. But the ballers on my radio or TV shows, they won't listen. They said no. Ford has done this. So, you know, we're going to punish the conservatives.

LL: Can we get into one very specific race that like to get your insight on. The liberals took down Lisa Raitt, the deputy leader of the Conservatives. What explains that win for the Liberals?

YUDHVIR JASWAR: I think that this clearly explains- this was a much anticipated race because an Olympian, a gold medallist, you know. And then in the final days of the campaign, Liberal leader Justin Trudeau, he was there at this area. Milton is a very diverse population, a lot of my Pakistani Muslims there, you have Indians also there in Milton.

LL: The demographics have changed over the last few years.

YUDHVIR JASWAR: Demographics has changed very, very quickly. You had Farina Hassan from NDP over there. But I think what I heard in the community, most of the guys there, they were already supporting liberal. I don't think so the candidate measured that much. It was more a word in Milton for Trudeau liberals.

LL: So the fact that it was an Olympic, an Olympian who was the race and Vancouver, it wasn't the big pulling factor.

YUDHVIR JASWAR: It was. It was. But again, as I mentioned, this is what I heard from the community. It was a word against the conservatives and for Trudeau, liberals.

LL: Can we go back to some of the things that you mentioned, that the liberals, in the view of many of the voters in 905 did wrong. It's a diverse region. We might have thought that blackface, brownface revelations might have hurt Justin Trudeau. What did you hear about that in the way it affected people's choice?

YUDHVIR JASWAR: Some of the people in the second or the third generations, a few of them, they said, yes, it did matter. It did offend them because growing up here, they face some sort of racism. But for the first generation Canadians, I don't think so it was that much of a concern. And once Trudeau, he apologized, they said, you know, okay, we will more focussed on the issues. Let's talk about affordability. Let's talk about taxes. Let's talk about health care, foreign policy. I mean, you know, basically, when you talk of a black face and wrong face, people do get [unintelligible] that, yes, what are the [unintelligible] we're looking for? But today's [unintelligible] are what they're looking for as much what a normal Canadian. Look our issues are pretty much the same. I mean, gone are the days when somebody would call, okay, the immigration minister. Okay. This is the most important issue. Yes, it is an issue. But today, our issues are really much same, which the normal Canadian.

LL: Let's talk about the NDP for a moment. It was hoping to make inroads in the region. Leader Jagmeet Sigh has roots there. He represented Brampton. He's provincially and his brother holds the seat. Now, why didn't more support materialize for the NDP?

YUDHVIR JASWAR: I've been asking this for the last approximately one year on almost every TV show that I've hosted. On all TV shows I asked the same question. Tell me a single rating where Jagmeet Singh has been in his backyard. That is Brampton. And nobody had any answer to that. Yes, towards the end of the campaign they were saying Brampton East will be a close contest. I live in Brampton East. I know. I mean, first of all, it's a very strong hold, a liberal over there. Secondly, the groups that were behind men in the shadow there were really strong. So we already knew that that he has this riding. And of course, the other ridings will once again go to Brampton. And NDP has never won, you know, a member of parliament in that area in Brampton, yes, Jagmeet Singh he won the first seat. And now we know that there are three seats as far as Brampton is concerned. I asked Doug Ford the same question and I said, you know, there was a blue way right across Ontario in Brampton. You know, you lost 3-2. He said, don't worry. Next time will be 5-0.

LL: So you speak to lots of voters in the area. Do you think that this result is giving voters what they wanted? And by that, I mean a Liberal minority government.

YUDHVIR JASWAR: Absolutely not. You know, the voters, you know, because there was nothing new on the blade. Who was offering anything new. We would easily swab the platforms off the liberals and the Conservatives. Nobody would even know. Okay. The Liberals, when I asked Bill Morneau, are you going to you bring the budget in surplus in his answer: he doesn't have a timeline. The Conservatives: five years later. Immigration 400,000. The numbers are pretty much the same. Foreign policy, pretty much the same. So the voters, they're looking for something new that wasn't there. So they said, okay, let's go with the Liberals.

LL: So what do you think is going to happen then for the 905 over the course of a minority parliament?

YUDHVIR JASWAR: You see one of the important issues that 905 has right now, whether it's Markham, Bolton or Brampton, all three of these places, the [unintelligible] universities and people are quite furious about that. They want universities there. Brampton doesn't have a hospital there.

LL: But these are provincial issues.

YUDHVIR JASWAR: Yes. Now, what happens is when Jagmeet Singh comes there and he says that, yes, I will build a hospital for you. Our reporter was there. We asked him these are provincial issues. They said, no, no, no, I'm going to do. He never spoke with Doug Ford. But then what? The people need all these issues over there. They expect the federal government at least to start talking to their provincial and municipal counterparts. I know Andrew Scheer had a meeting with with the mayor Patrick Brown. I know the Liberals had a meeting later and Patrick Brown has his own set of lists. He he wants a major national hub.

LL: Okay. We're going to have to leave it there because we're running out of time. Well, I'm sure we'll get a chance to talk again soon. Thank you for coming in.

YUDHVIR JASWAR: Well, you're very welcome.

LL: Yudhvir Jaswar is group editor and CEO of Y Media in Mississauga. He was in our Toronto studio. That is our program for today. Stay tuned to Radio One for Q. On this post-election morning, 22 minutes cast member Mark Critch. We'll be live with guest host Angeline Tetteh-Wayoe about the intersection between comedy and politics and how election night played out in their studio. There's a way things usually end on election night. The leaders of the losing parties take turns speaking, and the election night broadcast comes to a rousing end with a speech from the prime minister. That's not exactly how it went last night. It sounded a little more like this. I'm Laura Lynch. Thank you for listening to The Current.

SOUNDCLIP

ANCHOR: All right. That's Jagmeet Singh still giving his closing speech. I expected it to be a little bit shorter and obviously so did Andrew Scheer. So let's take you now to Regina, where Andrew Scheer is getting ready to speak. He is now, the leader of the official opposition, Andrew Scheer.

ANDRE SCHEER: Always so great to be back in Saskatchewan.

ANCHOR: This is not how things are normally done. Generally, we all wait our turn. So we're off to a really good start for this minority government. Here's Justin Trudeau. The next prime minister will go back to Andrew Scheer if we need to [unintelligible] to the prime minister.

[Music]

JUSTIN TRUDEAU: From coast to coast to coast, tonight Canadians...

ANDREW SCHEER: Thank you to all the volunteers that work hard in the campaign office and knocked on doors, put up signs...

JAGMEET SING: I also want to thank the incredible people of Burnaby South for re-electing me.

JUSTIN TRUDEAU: ...In favour of a progressive agenda and strong action on climate change.

ANDRE SCHEER: Being a member of parliament for [unintelligible] is an honour that I will never take for granted, and I will work hard every day to repay the trust that you had to put in me.

JAGMEET SING: I'm humbled that you put your trust in me. Thank you. And I'm going to continue to work for you. Thank you.

JUSTIN TRUDEAU: And we will make life more affordable. We will continue to fight climate change. We will take guns off our streets.

[Music]

The Current Transcript for October 22, 2019

STORIES FROM THIS EPISODE

Prologue

As parties consider minority options, overlapping speeches show communication problem: Vassy Kapelos

Elizabeth May says questions about her political future are 'trivial' in face of climate change

Election reactions

Tuesday October 22, 2019 Full Episode Transcript

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