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The Current Transcript for October 10, 2019

Host: Kathleen Petty

STORIES FROM THIS EPISODE

Prologue

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SOUNDCLIP

VOICE: Justin Trudeau would be absolutely devastating to my province and he is the most unpopular prime minister in Alberta history.

KATHLEEN PETTY: That is Alberta Premier Jason Kenney stumping for the Conservatives over the weekend. It's not that unusual for a premier to campaign for a federal party, but Jason Kenney was making his case in Ontario, making stops in 18 ridings in a few short days. I will speak with the Premier about the role he's playing in the election, the choice Canadians face and what he sees as a rise in Western alienation. That's first up. Then in half an hour, we will have an all western national affairs panel to make sense of a busy week on the campaign trail. And after that.

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[Sounds of attacks in Syria]

KP: Just days after U.S. President Donald Trump announced American troops would pull out of northern Syria, the shelling began. We will look at what Turkey's attack means for tens of thousands of ISIS fighters being held in the region and for the millions of Syrian refugees. Turkey wants to resettle across the border. I'm Kathleen Petty and this is The Current, coming to you from Calgary.

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Jason Kenney says he didn't attend climate strike because manifesto was 'radical left'

Guests: Jason Kenney

KP: Alberta Premier Jason Kenney is one of the most dominant conservative voices in Canadian politics. And throughout the election campaign, Jason Kenney has blasted Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau at every opportunity. He's warned of a national unity crisis emanating from Alberta and he has gone on the offensive in defence of the province's oil and gas sector. Jason Kenney is my first guest today. Premier, hello and thanks for joining me.

JASON KENNEY: Hi there.

KP: So 18 ridings, 23 events over a weekend in Ontario, are you just trying to make all the federal leaders look lazy or something?

JASON KENNEY: It's a lot easier to get around when you're not a federal leader but I enjoyed the trip. It was part of my commitment to Albertans to try to get a change in the federal government. We need a federal government that respects Alberta and will be really a partner in national prosperity. Canadians need to understand that people here are going, we're now in our fifth year of economic decline and stagnation. Incomes are down by about 5 percent. Our economy is smaller today than it was four years ago. You've published research showing that if our economy had grown at the same pace as our BC neighbour, the Canadian economy would be $130 billion bigger. So these are really important national issues, which is why I thought it was important to take this message to a national scale.

KP: Well let's pick up on the consequences because you've talked a lot about implications for national unity. You've brought that up for months now. If the Liberals get re-elected to a majority or a Liberal minority winds up relying on support from the NDP or the Greens or even the Bloc, but when you talk about implications for national unity I've never heard you actually describe what that looks like.

JASON KENNEY: Well let me start this by saying so there's no doubt about it that I am a proud Canadian, I'm a Canadian patriot, always have been and I always will be. I oppose separatist movements anywhere they exist but you've seen the polls here in Alberta which have shown a growing separatist sentiment it reflects a real sentiment of deep frustration in this province that feels like it has played an oversized role contributing to Canadian prosperity contributing over 600 billion dollars net through fiscal federalism to the rest of the country, since about 1960 about 20 billion dollars a year net and yet everywhere return we see other governments Ottawa and a couple of provincial governments trying to Hamas and pin us down and block our ability to produce the wealth that we are able to share with the rest of the coalition.

KP: But what I don't understand is what it means because you keep raising this issue and the argument goes that you're reflecting how Albertans are feeling, but what does it mean? What does a national unity crisis look like?

JASON KENNEY: I think what a national unity crisis looks like is large numbers of people, a critical mass of people, in regions of the country feeling profoundly alienated within the federation. I think that's what it looks like I can. Let me put it to you in these terms. Kathleen as I said to the Canadian Senate energy committee the week I was sworn in as Premier on Bill C-69. Imagine if we if we were a moment as we have been in the past where support for say separation in Quebec was rising and rising in the polls to a dangerous level that would become quite rightly a concern of everybody in federal leadership and from coast to coast. The notion that under such circumstances the federal government would big bring in a bill slamming Quebec's largest job creating industry would be unthinkable I've sat around the federal cabinet table and we were always hypersensitive about any perceived slight to the province of Quebec given to anxieties about national unity in the past. I'm saying why, Kathleen just to finish, I just wonder why this a reciprocal sentiment is not felt towards the provinces, Alberta and Saskatchewan, that are producing so much of the wealth in the country.

KP: So Premier Kenney, I guess that's what I'm trying to get at. You raise Quebec as sort of the you know that the province to compare it to and I'm asking you what that looks like. What is the consequence of that? You describe the consequence that we've seen in Quebec, so what is it here?

JASON KENNEY: Well I can't predict that, but on that point, let me be clear. Not only am I patriotic Canadian sort of in my heart, but I also think the whole notion of separation is irrational. But listen Kathleen, I've been involved in public life in Alberta for nearly 30 years and I've never heard this level of that kind of talk. So I don't know how it will manifest itself, but I'd rather not see.

KP: Have you considered that by raising it yourself, that you're stoking it?

JASON KENNEY: Absolutely not. To the contrary, what I'm trying to provide is a federalist alternative to that sentiment part of which involves I would hope a federal government that actually respects this province that is not hostile to the resources that have generated so much wealth from coast to coast not just wealth. But Kathleen Alberta's population has basically doubled in the past three decades in large part because of migration from other parts of Canada. People who came here often from underemployment unemployment or even poverty to to to get the dignity of work and opportunity in this province in large part thanks to our resource economy. So this is a positive message I'm trying to send which is Let's be partners in prosperity the night I was elected Premier I spoke to the country more than my own province. I spoke to Ken Becker's in French to say let's renew the Quebec Alberta alliance Let's be partners in prosperity let's develop these resources and share from their benefits. That's the message I'm trying to convey Andy and we are also putting forward an agenda for what I call fairness in the federation that involves reforming equalization reforming programs like the fiscal stabilization program that reforming employment insurance so that it's more regionally fair and a number of other issues that will continue to press whoever is elected.

KP: Since you bring up equalization, Premier Kenney and you have talked about a referendum on equalization, I can't say that Andrew Scheer seems to have embraced the idea of reforming equalization, certainly not part of his stump speech. So does that referendum go away if Andrew Scheer becomes prime minister?

JASON KENNEY: So Kathleen to be clear the conditions on which I committed to a referendum on Section 36 of the Constitution, equalisation, are the followin:g that we would do this if we do not get a coastal pipeline completed or substantially substantially on the way to completion. Secondly, if we do not see the repeal of the no more pipelines law you'll see sixty nine which is a devastating blow to our the future of our economy. So those are the two primary conditions I've laid out all over saying to other provinces that receive equalization or friends in Quebec get about $13 billion of it is if they want to benefit from the resource wealth created in Alberta then please help us get that to global markets, get a fair price for it and displace OPEC dictator oil both in eastern Canada and around the world.

KP: So that sounds like a yes to my question that you don't need a referendum on equalization if Andrew Scheer becomes prime minister because of the commitments that he's made to you to get the pipeline built and to repeal C69 and 48 I assume.

JASON KENNEY: Absolutely and by the way Kathleen, the day after I was elected the week I was elected as Premier, I spoke and in person with the Prime Minister Trudeau and I was very clear about this I said I hope we can find a way to work together, but you cannot proceed with this no more pipelines law. I indicated flexibility on a number of issues but but that that for us is is devastating because we've we can't get global access for our energy. We're going to see a continued out. Low of investment and jobs and that will ultimately as they read as the research demonstrates impoverish all Canadians. In many ways, as goes Alberta, so goes the federation.

KP: But I am curious as to your thoughts on Andrew Scheer's relative silence on equalization. He clearly doesn't seem to think there's much of a problem with that where Alberta's concerned, at least not to the extent that he's going to campaign on it.

JASON KENNEY: Well loo,k first of all, it's an issue that most people don't even begin to understand because of its complexity. So it's never been a a no, I mean it's never a coffee row conversation, perhaps outside of Alberta. This is not an issue I'd expect a federal party normally to campaign on. It's not a top of mind issue for probably 80 percent of the country. It's important to us. That's why we're raising it. But he is focussed on, he has committed to repeal the no more pipelines law and to get pipelines built, so that this is the kind of openness that we need to see fairness in the federation.

KP: I'm interested to talk more about this national energy corridor because that is something that Andrew Scheer is campaigning on, has talked about numerous times. I am curious though how you think the idea succeeds or proceeds given the divisions and debate about a single pipeline going through B.C..

JASON KENNEY: Well you know let's actually unpack that. Two thirds of Canadians consistently in polls over the past couple of years and two thirds of British Columbians and a majority of Vancouverites support the construction of that pipeline. The vast majority of B.C. First Nations are long and close to the pipeline route support its construction. There will always be a shrinking minority, in this case a shrinking minority of opposition. But you know I'm confident that that will get done as if we have a government committed to it. Unfortunately if Mr. Trudeau gets re-elected with in a minority context with the support of the NDP and or greens. I'm deeply concerned that he'll walk away from that five billion dollar investment and throw Alberta and the energy workers under the bus and we can't afford that risk which is why I hope we end up with a majority Conservative government that listens to the majority of Canadians on the need for this project to help us generate tens of billions of dollars of value to pay for health care pensions schools and hospitals.

KP: I get that you are behind the corridor, but I mean honestly what do you think the odds are it's going to happen? I get that you want it and you can make the argument for it, but you've been in politics a long time. You understand the politics across this country and the different provinces probably better than most. What do you think the odds really are honestly?

JASON KENNEY: I can't put a number on that it's obviously a real big challenge, but Kathleen if you asked me, if you asked one of the premier back in the 1870s What do you think the chances are of getting the CPR built? There were unthinkable obstacles to getting that big project done. My point is this we Canadians came together as a country by thinking big and doing big things by being audacious by doing what many thought was impossible. I sat at the Council of the Federation in Saskatoon in July were twelve of 13 provincial and territorial premiers signed on to language green with energy and resource corridors including oil and gas pipelines. This just highlights how actually completely out of touch with the reality. Elizabeth May in JAG meet singer and quite frankly Justin Trudeau all three of whom have said that provincial premiers can contrary to the Constitution block into provincial projects of this nature wealth creating job creating projects. So Kathleen I don't know what the odds are. All I know is I'm going to fight for the workers in my province and I think help in so doing helped to advance the national prosperity.

KP: Norway's largest pension fund announced it's excluding Suncor, Imperial and Husky as investments, hardly the first to do so. The flight of capital from the oil sands continues. How do you turn that around?

JASON KENNEY: Well we are focused on addressing all of that. So we'll be launching shortly where we're going to call her Canadian and Energy Centre. A lot of those investors have dated and inaccurate information. They do not know that the oil sands have shrunk by about 30 percent, their carbon output over their carbon intensity for barrel.

KP: Well I think it's about 24 on average, but some are for sure about 30 percent.

JASON KENNEY: The industry's on track for reducing it by another 20 percent. We're on the cusp of major technological change that would replace steam with solvents that will massively reduce water usage and therefore power consumption and therefore emissions. We're shifting to gas cogeneration. That's massively reducing output a carbon capture and storage is now showing real potential to be scalable at an industrial scale it's becoming less and less expensive. Huge potential there.

KP: But do you think telling this pension fund or the Swedish pension fund or HSBC or oil majors like Shell and ConocoPhillips that they're suddenly going to change their mind?

JASON KENNEY: Well actually yes. I can tell you that we have been engaged in conversations with major European institutional financial institutions and they are, I can, I'm not going to reveal confidential conversations, but some of them are taking another look. Now part of the thing Kathleen is they've never had pressure from the other side. All of its been incoming from one side. Second point Kathleen that is critical. The CEO of the Norwegian Pension Fund did his interviews on withdrawing from the oil sands from Riyadh Saudi Arabia. Now supposedly this is all driven by an investment matrix called environmental social governance ESG. What about the social. How profoundly cynical is it for companies like that and HSBC and others to say that they will withdraw from the liberal democracy with the third largest oil reserves on earth Canada with the highest human rights labour and environmental standards while they continue to finance and backstop the OPEC dictatorships that treat women like property instead of people that spread conflict and violence and warfare around the world. We will not tolerate that kind of hypocrisy. We will insist on a environmental social governance matrix that that includes at least includes at least equal weight for social and political considerations. And on that Canada knocks the light out lights out compared to any other major energy producer on Earth. You know my view is that for too long we we Canadians have taken a passive and classic typically Canadian apologetic approach to what we do so well in that and the responsible production of energy and now it's it's past time for us to be assertive and strategic about this because at the end of the day Kathleen, as long as the world is consuming this kind of energy, the question then becomes who will provide it? Who will be the source for that demand? And by the way one of the biggest ways we could play a role in reducing global greenhouse gas emissions would be to get Canadian natural gas to Asian markets to help them convert from dirty high emitting coal plants to much cleaner natural gas plants. We can play a role globally. There are many companies in Alberta now have credible pathways towards net zero carbon production of their oil.

KP: But can you be as you point out, you have a plan for attacking the climate crisis. You acknowledge it's going on, you also are defending the oil and gas industry, but it sort of seems like you don't feel like he can do both at the same time and what I think back to is that global climate action lockup by youth around the world and there are a lot of people on legislatelative grounds and you know we saw the signs I love oil and gas in the windows of the communications office and I was just curious as to why members of the government didn't join? Like why not be a part of that? Why not be both?

JASON KENNEY: Well Kathleen first of all, that was a rally that the manifesto for that day of action was essentially to shut down the entire industrial economy virtually overnight. That is not a mainstream practical focus on an on it reducing emissions to which we are committed. But that was frankly much of it coming from the radical left. There were communist hammer and sickle flags out there. I wouldn't go to a rally with a hammer and sickle flag any more than I would what to one with a swastika quite frankly. Openly committed to ending capitalism and shutting down the industrialized economy,he tse are not mainstream voices. This is not helpful. The way for going to make a difference is through technology that reduces carbon emissions in practical ways and that is what we are focussed on as a government.

KP: As you mentioned earlier obviously there is the possibility that the outcome will be a Liberal led government, either majority or minority. Can you work with any government other than a Scheer majority because based on our conversation that looks a little dicey.

JASON KENNEY: Well obviously, it will be difficult. It'll be challenging to work with a frankly a Justin Trudeau led particularly coalition government with the NDP and so we certainly hope it doesn't come to that. We think that will be, that will create enormous tension in the federation and diminish our prosperity. But I will respect whoever is elected, we will try to find common ground. That was my message to to Mr. Trudeau when we met in May. We will try to find common ground on whatever issues that we can. My message again to him will be this: a strong candidate needs a strong Alberta. Strong federal finances need a strong Alberta economy. So there are issues on which I hope we can work together should he be re-elected, including expanding free trade across Canada. And by the way Kathleen there are a lot of issues on which I have been a champion of federal power, of a strong central government. When I say the federal government should be asserting its constitutional responsibility over inter provincial projects like pipelines, against provincial balkanization, I'm defending a strong Ottawa. So I would say to Justin Trudeau, look we're out here opposing the constitutional authority of the federal government. We actually support it, perhaps more than most other provinces do.

KP: Premier Kenney, I appreciate all the time you gave us. Thank you so much for this.

JASON KENNEY: Thanks for focussing on Alberta this election. It should be an important issue.

KP: That is Jason Kenney, the premier of Alberta. Perhaps he said some things you'd like to respond to. If so, just tweet us @TheCurrentCBC. You can find us on Facebook or email from our website at cbc.ca/thecurrent. The CBC News is next. And then a special all western edition of our national affairs panel looking at the latest from the campaign trail. I'm Kathleen Petty in Calgary and you're listening to The Current.

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It’s not just about Ontario and Quebec: Our national affairs panel delves into what’s at stake for the west in this election and which issues voters care about the most

Guests: Zain Velji, Murray Mandryk, Frances Bula

KP: Hello. I'm Kathleen Petty in Calgary and you're listening to The Current.

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KP: Still to come, Turkey on the offensive. We bring you the latest from northern Syria. But first, the west weighs in.

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KP: Well the west often feels overlooked in Canadian politics and especially during an election when parties tend to focus on seat rich Quebec and Ontario. So here with me today is The Current's weekly national affairs panel to discuss how the campaign has been playing out in this part of the country. Zain Velji is a political strategist with the firm Northweather. He served as campaign manager for Calgary mayor Naheed Nenshi. And he joins me in our Calgary studio. Hi there Zain.

ZAIN VELJI: Good morning Kathleen.

KP: Murray Mandryk is a political columnist for the Regina Leader-Post. He's in our Regina studio. Hi Murray.

MURRAY MANDRYK: Good morning.

KP: And Frances Bula is a freelance writer who covers Vancouver regional politics for a number of outlets, including The Globe and Mail. She's in Vancouver. Hello Frances.

FRANCES BULA: Hello.

KP: So Zain I'll start with you. We just heard from Jason Kenney at the beginning of the show. You heard his warning about the national unity crisis that would unfold if the Liberals are re-elected. How much of that is hyperbole? How much of that is a reflection of what's going on?

ZAIN VELJI: I mean I think it's fair to say that the anger in Alberta if we can call it that has been resonating for the last couple of years and it's not just with the induction of Premier Kenney now that we have this change in tone in fact I'd say he was leaning in to the tone of the rest of the large portion I should say of Albertans who felt like they've you know when they're down they've been kicked down a little bit more. Right. With pipelines being promised bought but not delivered upon with the energy sector hollowing out our downtown towers as we sit here in Calgary still having 30 to 40 percent downtown vacancy rates which has then led to unemployment. Quality of life outcomes being reduced. So people are actually struggling here. There is a real struggle and I think the anger that the rest of the country may see coming from Alberta that they may feel is unjustified or that they may feel is a little bit overblown. I would say you know have some empathy for the fact that we have many people in this in this province who are actually struggling or know someone that is struggling. And Jason Kenney and the political leadership that has taken over in Alberta is trying to resonate and talk about those concerns in an emotional way. So is it real in the sense of Alberta leaving? No absolutely not. Is it a good idea? No absolutely not. But is the underlying anger and concern for what the future of this place you know up in the air? Totally.

KP: You know Murray, Brad Wall has raised this a number of times as well, so Jason Kenney is not alone. Scott Mo perhaps as well. Brad Wall more so. So how much is this a factor in Saskatchewan?

MURRAY MANDRYK: Well we're not quite as homogenous as Alberta. I don't think on this particular issue but we're pretty close right now and as in said there's been a real steady march to the right in Saskatchewan to is in essence towards Alberta and towards the Alberta view is oil production and is other resources became a boom in our economy about 14 years ago. Now we're suffering in essence the same thing that Alberta suffering but maybe not quite as dramatically because proportionally our income in Saskatchewan isn't quite as dependent on oil as it is in Alberta. All that said Alberta sneezes and we get a call and we get a cold and that's that's always sort of been the case for Saskatchewan so right now there is very much a sense that the voice of Alberta is Jason Kennedy Kenney. It used to be Brad Wall but Scott Moore doesn't quite take the same forward approach as Brad Wall did us Jason Kenney is certainly offering the very articulate view of what the frustrations are for Saskatchewan people and pretty much as seen outlined that there's a slump in the economy. We're constantly doing a tough battle with the weather and agriculture is our other primary resource industry and economic provider actually means even more so than oil and it's been a horrible year crop wise in Saskatchewan in terms of getting the crop off. Obviously other resources have slowed down. So there is a real and sincere frustration from an economic high, which is an unusual thing in Saskatchewan, compared to Alberta, but an economic high of 10 years ago to where we're back at now and I think people are just genuinely frustrated that we're back to where we are and are looking for solutions.

KP: You know Frances I know people in B.C. often get a bit tick when we talk about Western alienation and they feel like they're getting lumped into it because they're the most west of all. So why don't you tell me what the feeling is there?

FRANCES BULA: Yeah it's interesting to listen to the other two provinces because you know things feel very different here. Or in Vancouver at the CBC studio where I am, Kitty Corner is a giant building project where Amazon is going to move van across the street as another office tower where Microsoft is going to move in. You know are the problem here with the economy is that the price of housing is still incredibly high but unemployment is low the economy is you know not bad for now there isn't. There just isn't the same sense of frustration or despair or you know what is happening to our economy there. That's in the Lower Mainland obviously the north of B.C. the northeast corner is oil and gas and you know maybe it feels a bit more like Alberta there but.

KP: And the interior too.

FRANCES BULA: And the interior, but you know the interior is doing really well. The population is growing. There's you know interesting industries springing up there. They're also seeing a bit of a tech boom. They've got great wineries that you know sort of define part of the Okanagan and so on. There just isn't the same sense of economic despair here in B.C. I would say, it's in separate pockets.

KP: It's interesting too because there are layers of issues for British Columbia and I can see Zain sort of looking at me because I think that's another sort of factor in this election, depending on where you are, the issues are so drastically different thing.

ZAIN VELJI: Absolutely listen you know Alberta for decades has not factored into the national political maths that's not different this election right. The only difference is conservatives might sweep across the board that's fine. That's happened before. So that's not novel. What is different however is that in previous elections Albertans have felt like the national issues the the suite of issues that our federal leaders have been discussing have some resonance with us right. They're similar to us. We we talk about the same things we're talking about here and even if they don't pay special attention to us we're still part of the national conversation. What's changed this election is that the issues that for example Francis brings up affordability issues that you know climate change a big national issue. That's not what's registering on the radar here. People are looking at economy people are looking at jobs you know give me something about transit help me with these hollowed out downtown towers. What's the future of diversification. Yes this is a hybrid of provincial and federal issues but these are our issues right. And so what's different in Alberta is that you know we are almost dealing with the inverse. You want to come here to Alberta. We've got cheap housing it's cheaper than it was five years ago you want to come here. You know we can build here. So incomes are still high. Incomes are still high. Right. So it's the point of you know is affordability we're dealing with the inverse on climate we're trying to push for pipelines not saying that those aren't mutually exclusive in some way. So it seems like the first election in many years where Albertan issues are being less discussed as a suite of national issues and may often be considered a wedge or fringe issues of this election.

KP: And Murray is Saskatchewan part of that? Because I often you know there's this interesting coalescence that's happened between Saskatchewan, I call it the Alberta-Saskatchewan Alliance. Buffaloes back Murray.

MURRAY MANDRYK: Buffaloes back. Well we've obviously moved further right. And that's partly in relation to Brad Wall and the Saskatchewan Party coming on the rise. The old Progressive Conservative part party morphing into what they are now the liberal element in that party is now gone federally speaking. There's 60 to 70 percent according to the polls supporting the Conservatives right now so in essence in some ways we're probably more conservative in much of the province than Alberta. There still is this weird schism right now and it comes down to the carbon tax versus the climate. Now overwhelmingly people are opposing the carbon tax. It's Scott Mo's message repeated for a year and a half now since he became premier replacing Brad Wall. It's a mantra out here where everything that is said by this provincial government that who isn't quite as active in the campaign as is Jason Kenney is, but might as well be because in essence they're delivering Andrew Scheer's message and that message is that we're not going to have a carbon tax. We're going to do something on the environment, but it's more proprietary to climate change than actually is related to stopping climate change. And and that is a message that sells far better out here and probably in Alberta than anywhere anyplace else in this country right now.

KP: Can I just ask you, when you talk about Andrew Scheer and both Scott Mo and Jason Kenney sort of carrying his message, but what about Andrew Scheer himself? Like is he feeling the love there?

MURRAY MANDRYK: Andrew Scheer hasn't been back in Saskatchewan, but once during this campaign and not in his home city. He's a bit of an outsider even in Regina. Now that doesn't necessarily mean that people don't absolutely buy into the conservative message in in a significant majority but he's really not necessarily seen as a Saskatchewan boy. Because he's not and that's fair enough. I guess he's close enough his brother in law is John Ryan with the writers so let's say that all it really takes. Yeah but if he plays that occasionally and but the fact of the matter is it's the delivery of that message that we are opposing this carbon tax the carbon tax has become something the second life on its own almost as is his being the story of the economy. Even though there really isn't a huge amount of economic evidence so far that that's the case our jobs continue to rise. As bad as the farm income and farm problems are right now household income continues to rise in this province. Yet there is this overwhelming frustration that Andrew Scheer I think is capturing.

KP: Hey Frances, BC, I mean it's just fascinating I know we always talk about seat rich Kobach and Ontario, but boy the races to watch, so many of them are in B.C. and given how competitive some of the ridings are, even in some cases four way races, foes that make the province more engaged do you think in the campaign?

FRANCES BULA: I mean I think B.C. is like the rest of the country and being somewhat baffled by this election and not very engaged, sort of we don't like any of you. I would say is the predominant feeling OK. But there are some interesting races for sure. And you know there was a Liberal surge in B.C. in the last election like they have 17 employees which was kind of a peak that they hadn't B.C. hadn't seen since the 60s and 70s. You know it typically has split between NDP and Conservative or NDP and reform that's more typically the pattern for B.C.. So a lot of people won last time and there are many questions about whether the Liberals can hang onto those seats you know particularly the very interesting Vancouver Granville where Joan a bold is running but many others you know especially in the suburbs there's a r where the pipeline issues are predominant in Burnaby North, Terry Beach is the Liberal but NDP's Fend Robinson is challenging him. And you know the pipeline issue is big there. That's where it terminates and a few other ridings. You know it mostly in the suburbs where the Liberals won last time somewhat surprisingly, given that they're mostly Conservative ridings and really people are wondering if they can hang onto those.

KP: So interesting. I want to go back to Murray again. Just I'm curious about the NDP. You and I can go back a ways, I was in Regina working.

MURRAY MANDRYK: Let's not say how long.

KP: Nearby you. Well there was a premier Grant Devine I think was power back in the day.

MURRAY MANDRYK: Yes.

KP: But you know people think of the NDP still, I think when they think of Saskatchewan, but where are they?

MURRAY MANDRYK: They're nowhere. And interestingly what's going to happen here is it's quite possible both the Conservatives and the Liberals believe it or not might pick up seats in this province because the liberals right now have their eye on northern seat of Destiny Mississippi Churchill River because they're running a very strong tribal council chief from Lawrence that they think can actually unseat the New Democrat they're the new Democrat in Saskatoon West Sheree Benson is in trouble and you are all probably familiar with the saga of Aaron we're in China Louvin who was removed by jug meets sing jug meets sing is not popular or in Saskatchewan at all although I think that might be changing a little particularly after the bait performance.

KP: And he's not popular with the Alberta NDP, Zain.

ZAIN VELJI: No he's certainly not.

MURRAY MANDRYK: And probably for the same reason it's policy based because of the pipeline position. Right now in Saskatchewan most people don't know this but we have a relatively large steel industry or least large pipeline building industry in Regina ever has place.

KP: Yes that's right.

MURRAY MANDRYK: In the northern part of the riding. They're talking, they're urging their members to steelworkers and I can't believe I'm saying this, but the steel workers are urging their members to vote Conservative this election, over the pipeline issue and over here and we're so that speaks to the problems and the realities I guess of Saskatchewan politics right now and specific specifically NDP politics in Saskatchewan there's a real power struggle within the NDP in this province because they don't like the way everything's kind of moved left in the east in in Saskatchewan in the sketch with NDP. Used to have a larger say but I think on a broader question I think from a policy perspective of just the average voter they've moved away so that. So I think the three seats that they actually picked up here in this province in 2015 may all be lost or maybe they'll hang onto one, but all too perhaps the gain of the Conservatives and the Liberals.

KP: Well when Rachel Notley, Zain, won't commit to voting NDP in her own riding, we've got problems for the NDP.

ZAIN VELJI: I mean schism is the right word. I mean this is both the upside and the liability of being the federal party that has tentacles in provinces right. Which is you've got cousins that hang out and do their own thing in the provinces which generally sounds great because you're part of one brand one operation you look unified until when your leader takes a position that you know to at least two big NDP leaders in the provinces disagree with the pipeline. So you know we have Rachel Notley and listen for those listening in other parts of the country you can't run for political office without having a metaphorical face tattoo that you support pipelines. Right. So Rachel Notley supporter of pipeline supporter of pushing through on pipelines has a fundamental disconnect which I've been saying as and that has come up even in her election raised recently earlier this year so yeah this is this is both the asset that the party would like like that would have. But now we're seeing the downside of it. The liability when you have tremendous schism on key policy issues that are resonating in Saskatchewan and Alberta.

KP: Frances a lot of people are looking to B.C. to see if that Green breakthrough is going to happen. Is it?

FRANCES BULA: Well I think people wouldn't be surprised if the Greens ended up with three seats here. I know they're fighting really hard in Victoria. They were very close last time to winning and then the NDP candidate has Murray Ranken. He isn't running again. So they really feel quite strong there. I think they're hoping for Nanaimo as well. And maybe you know one more I'm not sure where but I think the Greens are very hopeful. I'd have to say though that one interesting thing is the Greens have been working with the NDP government here and have not always taken positions that people have been very happy with. So unlike in other areas where people vote Green sort of optimistically thinking maybe they're the solution here. People have seen what the Greens are doing. And you know they suffer all the slings and arrows of actually being in government and having to make unpopular decisions sometimes so that'll be interesting to see how that plays out now.

KP: And we just have a few minutes left. Let me stay with you for a moment. Frances. Anticipate what things might look like after October 21st. The polls seem to be favouring a minority situation, you know all about that in B.C.. What do you think about the prospects of, I don't know Greens at least having some leverage if not the balance of power?

FRANCES BULA: That's a possibility and I think the NDP will do better here. You know Jagmeet Singh is not an unfamiliar figure or you know South Asian politicians are you know very familiar here, so there isn't the sort of reaction to him that there might be elsewhere.

KP: And Zain?

ZAIN VELJI: I mean listen if we have a minority I'm going to be interested in one thing is a minority going to be used to prop up a government to defeat something like the Trans Mountain pipeline an issue that we've been discussing today or are they going to be used to try to get something from the government that they may not have on their agenda proportional representation or a different mode of voting that they've promised in the past. So you know about minority government very well could happen. The question is who props it up and then to what extent and what are they looking for when they prop up a government.

KP: I would say I don't know why the tail always has to wag the dog though. Like why can't Liberals, Murray and Conservatives actually work together on stuff.

MURRAY MANDRYK: Well they tried that here with the SAS party and it hasn't worked out very well.

KP: I know, but I'm just saying.

MURRAY MANDRYK: I don't know. I know that if we have a federal minority here heads will explode starting with Scott Mo's. I absolutely think that they will have a tremendous amount of difficulty working with a minority Liberal government, in particular. They really want a conservative majority. Brad Wall has been stumping on this for a long time, they want it here and it'll be very interesting to see how the damage that's been done this election in terms of the nastiness and the unworkability will be healed.

KP: Yeah well you know what a shirtless minority government people aren't that wild about this campaign. I don't imagine they're going to be much more wild about another one.

ZAIN VELJI: Yeah you want to do this again in about six months because we very well could be right. That could be the outcome that we see ourselves in which is back to the polls and other campaign. And I think a minority government this might be prognostication beyond my of effort.

KP: You're going to do it anyway right?

ZAIN VELJI: I mean what would stop me Kathleen?

KP: You've got 30 seconds. I can stop you. So here we go.

ZAIN VELJI: Well here it is. A minority government might be effectively a display by the Canadian public of the lack of leadership that they're seeing right. Usually what we see when we get majorities is a 11th hour coalescence around whoever is viable of their political stripe. So they hold their nose and go with a viable candidate on their side of the spectrum. A minority government could show that we don't want more of this. Ironically, we might get more of this.

KP: Wow, you're good right to the second. We'll wrap her u p there. Zain Velji is a political strategist with the Calgary firm, Northweather. Zain, thank you.

ZAIN VELJI: Thanks Kathleen.

KP: Murray Mandryk. Good to talk to you again. He's a political columnist for the Regina Leader-Post. Sorry for aging you a little there, Murray. Forgive me.

MURRAY MANDRYK: That's okay. It hasn't just been you. Nice talking to you again Kathleen.

KP: You too. And Frances Bula is a freelance journalist in Vancouver. It's been a great conversation. Thanks you guys.

FRANCES BULA: Thank you.

KP: So now we pay tribute to another remarkable feature of Alberta, beyond Zane Balaji. The stunning wildlife. We all know about the mighty elk, the fearsome grizzly, the big horn sheep. But here's a look at another fascinating creature, one that is best known for the quality of stubbornness.

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VOICE: Here in Alberta's Aspen Parkland we find one of nature's hardiest and most resilient creatures. This veritable camel of the Grasslands can survive for decades with no sustenance whatsoever. Every autumn they flock to the banks of the North Saskatchewan River and fill the air with their plane to to. The Edmonton Oilers fan is instantly recognisable by its dazzling orange plumage and its distinctive eyes red didn't puffy from being so sad for so very long. The Oilers fan is a remarkable example of natural adaptation. Once the apex of the food chain, they are no longer feared by coyotes, penguins, sharks or even ducks. Where they used to guzzle the champagne of the playoffs. The Oilers fans now drink the ginger ale of hoping the flames lose and so the Oilers fan has been forced to evolve. They now subsist entirely on a diet of nostalgia. At the watering hole this autumn morning nostalgia is in abundance. It's the fortieth anniversary of something. The fans drink deeply. Suddenly the pack is agitated like meerkats. The Oilers fans craned their necks straining to see the horizon. That rarest of creatures a puck moving defenceman has been sighted in the east. The pack chatters with anticipation. Could this be the bounty the Oilers fans have been waiting for? No. The seasons run their inevitable course. Autumn brings delicious victories and the fans feast. This is the season of false hope. Next, come the bitter winds of January and a total collapse. These are busy days for the Oilers fans like bees spreading pollen. They cover the land in blame. And then at long last, a new summer will bring draft choices questionable trades, and nature's cycle will begin anew. On the banks of the North Saskatchewan the popular groves will once again ring with the unquenchable song of futile hope.

[Oilers fans chanting]

KP: Also futile. They've won their first three games of the season. Hang in there fans and our thanks to Peter Brown and Mark Meer in Edmonton for that. Coming up in our next half hour, if the federal election campaign has got you down, maybe what you really need is a good laugh.

SOUNDCLIP

VOICE: They say whatever's bad for humanity is great for comedy. I mean right now the Canadian election's awesome.

KP: That is Montreal comedians Sugar Sammy and you'll want to stick around till the end of the program because he's our last word. I'm Kathleen Petty in Calgary. You're listening to The Current.

[Music: Theme]

Kurdish Canadians worried for friends and family

Guests: Chloe Trois-dec, Piotr Zalewski, Mariwan Jaaf, Wa’el Alzayat

KP: You're listening to The Current on CBC Radio One and Sirius XM. I'm Kathleen Petty in Calgary.

[Sounds of attacks in Syria]

KP: The sound of exploding artillery is what many Kurds and northern Syria have been fearing for years. Civilians have been fleeing for their lives. At least seven have died. The Turkish president has defended the operation saying that the aim is to get millions of Syrian refugees who've been living in Turkey back to their own country and threatening to let them flood into Europe if the operation is further criticized. Chloe Trois-dec is with the Rojava Information Center. It's a research group for the Kurdish areas of Syria. We've reached her on the border in Turkey, in Qamishli,Syria. Hello.

CHLOE TROIS-DEC: Hello.

KP: Can you tell me what's happening today where you are right now?

CHLOE TROIS-DEC: Right now the situation is really calm. There's nothing happening since like let's say 3 a.m.. Some people left, but it seems that most of the Syrian state, not like other cities, areas where attacks are the strongest is Ras al-Ayn and Tall Abyad that are also on the western side of north eastern Syria. Right now in Qamishli everything is fine. Like last night we got shelled. Additional neighborhood of Qamishli was hit. Some civilians or so died in a neighborhood in pretty close to our office. Two Christian people.

KP: Can you just describe what it was like for you when the bombs were falling. I know that someone who was speaking with you, as she was, could hear the bombs herself on the other side of the phone.

CHLOE TROIS-DEC: Yes yes. Like when it's falling in the same city you are, it's really heavy, somewhat targeting neighborhoods not so far from our office or outskirts of the city and even in the villages. They're also trying to shell the ISIS prison, where ISIS high level detainees are being held. We did not heard any news of any breaking like of course it's frightening, but in the same time like we are here to report. So I think you are just doing our job and I hope that it will not fall on us.

KP: And you say that things eased off at about 3 a.m.. Are you concerned it's just a short pause before it resumes again?

CHLOE TROIS-DEC: Yes it's likely that it would stop again in the evening, but right now we don't think that they want to enter our city.

KP: OK. So you don't expect ground troops or tanks so much that it will continue from the air.

CHLOE TROIS-DEC: In this city not, but it's what they are trying to, Right now and I'm talking in Ras al-Ayn and Tall Abyad.

KP: And what about people fleeing. How much evidence of that are you seeing?

CHLOE TROIS-DEC: We've got a number from a human rights organization talking about the 100,000 civilians that have been displaced. In Qamishli saw some people moving yesterday. Some people who are just relocating from one neighborhood to the other. There are some neighborhoods that are directly next to the wall, the Turkish border wall. So some people are also heading towards, a city like more in the south, which would be normally outside of the so-called buffer zone, which is being denounced by Turkey.

KP: And for people who are just staying put, what are they saying? What are their reasons for just waiting it out?

CHLOE TROIS-DEC: Because they don't want to let their cities to the Turkish army like they liberated some of the cities from the hands of ISIS or the Islamist forces like Jabhat al-Nusra and they want to let just replaced Turkey so easily. This morning in fact there was a big demonstration just in front of our office. Like thousands of people marching against Turkish invasion calling like international community to stand up against this invasion and to take strong acts because until now they were just words and to put acts to stop the Turkish invasion. And so a lot of people yes they are staying for their cities, they don't want to go anywhere. And until the stress are becoming higher, they feel that they are faced here.

KP: And what about you are you going to stay?

CHLOE TROIS-DEC: Yes of course. Like were are here to do this work. We are here to report. We will stay in the place where we can do our work.

KP: Chloe take care of yourself and thank you very much.

CHLOE TROIS-DEC: You're welcome.

KP: Chloe Trois-dec is with the Rojava Information Center. She is in Syria. For more on the situation, I'm joined now by Piotr Zalewski. He is the Turkey correspondent for The Economist and we've reached him in Istanbul. Hello.

PIOTR ZALEWSKI: Hi Kathleen.

KP: So what is the latest right now according to your latest information on the offensive by Turkey?

PIOTR ZALEWSKI: Right. So as of this morning the Turkish military has confirmed that it has launched a ground offensive so ground troops are now beginning to enter the region alongside Syrian rebels that have allied themselves with with the Turkish army.

KP: Do you have a sense of how large this ground offensive will be?

PIOTR ZALEWSKI: Well we don't really know the scope of the offensive right now. We know that the area that Turkey has its eyes on and we know that the forces required to take that area would be quite significant. So we're talking about an area that stretches from the Euphrates River all the way to the Syrian border with Iraq and an area that is about 30 kilometers deep and who all would join that offensive. Well there are two forces involved. One is the Turkish army which happens to be NATO's second biggest army and an assortment of Syrian rebel groups that were initially forces that fought against the Assad regime but now have essentially become Turkish mercenaries.

KP: And just describe for us Turkey's Goals in this region.

PIOTR ZALEWSKI: So where we are today is perhaps not inevitable but a very likely result of what happened two years ago when America first teamed up with Kurdish fighters known as the YPG against Islamic State in Syria. The reason why Turkey has opposed this partnership from the very beginning was that those Kurdish fighters were organically linked to a group that has waged war against the Turkish army for the better part of the last 35 years. So Turkey took a very dim view of America's partnership with the YPG and insisted that this was not acceptable and has been warning about an intervention against the YPG or YPG controlled areas for some time now.

KP: And Erdogan has also said he wants to relocate Syrian refugees to this zone.

PIOTR ZALEWSKI: Right. So the first priority is obviously to for Turkey at least is to defeat the YPG or declare the YPG from that 30 kilometer deep area that I mentioned earlier. The second priority is as Turkish government has suggested is to move about or up to 2 million Syrian refugees 2 million of the three point six million Syrian refugees currently based in Turkey into that buffer area which the Turks referred to as a Peace corridor. The problem with that is that Turkey expects everyone to think that those refugees would simply decide to leave Turkey and voluntarily move into that buffer area. That's very unlikely. What is more a forced relocation. Well if it were to take place it would be to a very large extent forced resettlement and you know that's problematic for a range of reasons. I mean first of all moving that number of people any number of people to a very troubled area is morally reprehensible to begin with. Second of all moving up to 2 million or in fact even fewer mostly Syrian Arab refugees into an area that is populated predominantly by Kurds is a recipe for ethnic conflict and tensions. So this is certainly one of the reasons why the international community has vehemently opposed Erdogan's plan to relocate those refugees into into the buffer zone.

KP: Now I'm just imagining a brand new conflict as a result of what you describe. I'm also curious to know how these refugees are viewed by the citizens of Turkey.

PIOTR ZALEWSKI: Right. So this might come as a surprise but you know the offensive against the Kurdish fighters seems to be quite popular in Turkey and not only among government supporters but among the opposition as well. The reason being that it Turks overwhelmingly oppose the presence of the refugees inside Turkey.

KP: Given everything that you described, what are you going to be watching for just in the days to come?

PIOTR ZALEWSKI: I mean I think you know the international response to this is going to be quite crucial. The dynamic in the U.S. is fluid and. It may be that the decision to suspend the offensive will be imposed on Erdogan by the international community. But I think if left to his devices he and the government will take it as far as they can which is to say that they will try to claim control over the entirety of the buffer zone that I described.

KP: Thank you so much for this. Really appreciate it.

PIOTR ZALEWSKI: Thanks for having me on Kathleen.

KP: Piotr Zalewski is the Turkey correspondent for The Economist and we reached him in Istanbul.

SOUNDCLIP

[Sounds from protests in Vancouver]

KP: In Vancouver yesterday, Kurdish-Canadians gathered to protest the US pullout and Turkey's attack. One of the organizers is Mariwan Jaaf. He joins me now from Vancouver. Hello.

MARIWAN JAAF: Hello good morning.

KP: So tell me about the protest stand and what the goals were.

MARIWAN JAAF: Well we we got together on Saturday night, sorry on Sunday after we heard the decision from the Trump administration to withdraw its troops and leave the Kurds on their own. That we were expecting something like this to happen. There has been a gathering of troops on the border in the last week or so and we had planned to sort of react or be sort of be sort of ahead of the game. We were not expecting that that that assault will start so soon. And then we we showed up and like they were we were in a situation that we'd had to deal with a humanitarian crisis there. And we're trying to send a message to the U.S. consulate there and. Show our displeasure with the actions of the United States.

KP: You were saying it came sooner than you expected. So I'm sure this must be terribly unsettling. You must be very concerned about the people in the area. Just how do you feel about all of it?

MARIWAN JAAF: Well we have that concern. We have been through this multiple times within the last few years. We we know the reality of the Turkish occupation of the city of freedom which happened last year. Everything once was peace peaceful prosperous Kurdish region that took on thousands of refugees from elsewhere in Syria was invaded by Turkey and occupied in 2018. Most of the population was forced to flee under Turkish bombardment and there was targeted act of ethnic cleansing where Kurdish populations were replaced by. My Turkish backers groups such as job had al-Nusra. That's all we're worried about the same situation repeating itself and other parts of northern Syria.

KP: And what does that area represent for the Kurdish people?

MARIWAN JAAF: Well that area since the beginning of the US sorry Syrian conflict has has become a haven has become a democratic project where where it has been Democratic feminist leaders in the region where 50 percent of the leadership of the SDF and that the governing body were female where everyone in the region no matter what ethnicity or religion have enjoyed equal treatment and have had democratic rights.

KP: Turkey says it wants to repatriate Syrian refugees into that area. What do you think of that?

MARIWAN JAAF: Well this is part of it's a declared goal declared goal of the offensive. But it also that the head and the changing demographics of that region has been long. Plan of Turkey and other governments in the region to play displacing the Kurds by forcing other Syrian people to return to return to that. Or go to that land. It's just gonna be a recipe for disaster.

KP: Just briefly if you can, as a member of NATO, as this country being a member of NATO, what do you want to see from our political leadership on this?

MARIWAN JAAF: Well I would like us to go beyond condemnations. I would like this to go to and make sure that Turkey as them as an ally and allies do not that allies commit genocide. We would like Canada to to press ahead with arms embargoes like some other countries have declared for example Finland has declared arms embargo interest on Turkey. We would like to see a no fly zone imposed in north east Syria.

KP: Alright. We're going to leave it there for now. I really appreciate your perspective on this. Thank you so much.

MARIWAN JAAF: Thank you.

KP: That is Mariwan Jaaf, a Kurdish Canadian. He joined us from Vancouver. The European Union has called on Turkey to stop its unilateral action in northeast Syria. Canada's Foreign Affairs Minister condemned the attack warning that risks rolling back the progress against ISIS, but according to my next guest Turkey's move shouldn't come as a complete surprise given the situation it finds itself in. Wa'el Alzayat is a former senior policy adviser to the United States ambassador to the U.N. He's in Washington D.C.. Hello and thank you for joining me.

WA-EL ALZAYAT: Thanks for having me.

KP: Turkey has been condemned fairly widely by the West. It is the condemnation fair?

WA-EL ALZAYAT: Not completely. Obviously you know as someone who worked on the Syria conflict when I was at the State Department you never want to see any military conflict that's affecting civilians and my heart goes out to you know the tens of thousands of people who are at the end of the day are going to bear the brunt of this. But Turkey since 2014 when the Obama administration decided to arm and train and provide close air support to their number one enemy the PDK and their affiliates in Syria has said that this is unsustainable for them for a variety of reasons and people can agree or disagree with that and they've said Either you move them away from the border or one day we're going to come in and remove them ourselves.

KP: So in other words everyone should have seen this coming.

WA-EL ALZAYAT: Absolutely and people have said this inside the halls of government and outside of it since 2014.

KP: What are the security issues for Turkey?

WA-EL ALZAYAT: Look first and foremost they fear an independent Kurdistan. This is not that's not a surprise. They are afraid that the YPG or any group like it will one day seek to carve out territory from Turkey and join it with other territory in neighboring countries particularly Iraq and Syria. This is this is their fear and they've gone to war over it to preserve their territorial integrity and so have the you know groups such as the peak AK and the YPG. And the result has been about 40000 people killed in just the Turkish conflict over this issue.

KP: So they see that as the larger threat as opposed to ISIS?

WA-EL ALZAYAT: Absolutely.

KP: And where does Syrian refugees fit into all of this?

WA-EL ALZAYAT: Syrian refugees have become a political pawn unfortunately. You know Turkey has been probably the best host, the most gracious host, its government and its people hosting close to three million people some say more. But it's become a political issue in a divided Kirk. Turkey those who oppose or to want in Turkey are pummeling him over this issue. And you can see the results of it calculating that he may lose future elections over this. He's in a hurry to see if he can move some of those refugees back into Syria. And the only viable way for him given the absence of any meaningful international support to Turkey over this issue this is their next best option. It's a horrible prospect quite frankly to forcibly send back Syrian refugees anywhere into an active combat area or an area where the regime and the Russians and their allied militias can come back and harm them. But that's what we're looking at.

KP: I mean it could create a new conflict.

WA-EL ALZAYAT: Absolutely and you know forceful displacement is is illegal under international law. Now if Turkey somehow manages to create a pretty safe area for them many people may want to come back particularly those who are disciplined. This is what people need to understand. A lot of Syrian refugees were displaced not only by Assad and not only by ISIS but also by these very YPG fighters who took over towns such as Russell ain members age and tell abused. Those were mixed towns but when the YPG moved in a lot of them were were cleansed from there.

KP: What about the concerns within the international community about the fight against ISIS and how this could jeopardize all that?

WA-EL ALZAYAT: There's certainly serious concerns there are about 2000 foreign ISIS prisoners right now inside Syria with about 10000 Iraqis and Syrian members of ISIS who are in prison plus an additional as many as 60000 family members who are under watch by the SDF who also have been largely abandoned by the international community to fend for themselves to watch over these fighters with no country willing to repatriate with a few exceptions. And now people are coming and saying you know we're so we're so worried and concerned about this issue it's a serious situation. ISIS Mary emerge you know amidst this chaos and it's unfortunate what's needed is for the international committee to support both the SDF and Turkey and in the worst case scenario where they cannot prevent this offensive to actually double their efforts on the ground and provide support to both sides. We just had a NATO ally and the SDF are our partners against ISIS.

KP: We just let the moment or so left. When you say the international community, who are we talking about?

WA-EL ALZAYAT: I'm talking primarily about the United States. It's the NATO and the U.S.. That's who we're talking about.

KP: Because they're going to make the calls here.

WA-EL ALZAYAT: I'm sorry.

KP: They're the ones who are going to be finally making the calls on how to respond to this, especially if goes.

WA-EL ALZAYAT: And they're the ones with the most leverage and stake here involved in this situation. They're the ones who are allies of Turkey and they're the ones who don't want to see ISIS reemerge.

KP: OK we'll leave it there. I really, I very much appreciate your expertise on this this morning. Thanks so much for taking the time.

WA-EL ALZAYAT: Thank you.

KP: Wa-el Alzayat is a former senior policy adviser to the United States ambassador to the U.N. He's in Washington D.C..

[Music: Theme]

Oct. 10, 2019 episode transcript

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